Young voters are drawn to radical political parties.
During the European election, individuals aged 16 and above in Germany will have the opportunity to vote for the first time. This could potentially benefit right-wing populist parties, even if young people themselves may not share these political beliefs.
At the age of 16, individuals can already legally purchase alcohol, access contraceptives, and even participate in some local and state elections. And now, they will be able to participate in the European election as well.
In late 2022, the Bundestag, guided by the traffic light coalition, passed a law reducing the voting age for European elections. This decision was made opposed by the CDU and AfD. The goal, according to the proponents of the law, is to encourage youth participation in politics and take on more responsibility. Similarly, in a handful of other European countries, sixteen-year-olds are already allowed to vote in national elections, including Austria, Belgium, and Malta, with Greece allowing 17-year-olds to cast their ballot.
One common argument against lowering the voting age is that young people are not yet mature enough to make informed decisions. The German Teachers' Association shares this sentiment. However, Thomas König, a political science professor at the University of Mannheim in the ntv podcast "Learned Again," disagrees. He argues that the question of maturity should not just be applied to young people but to adults as well. According to König, "It has to do with possessing a certain amount of background knowledge to make a decision at all. And the young people have that just as much as many older ones."
Scientific research conducted by University of Erfurt developmental psychologist Anna Lang found that 16- and 17-year-olds are fully capable of making wise voting choices. Additionally, Lang discovered that these young people are politically mature enough to cast a ballot. There are no significant discrepancies between minors and adults in political interest or knowledge.
There have been concerns raised recently regarding the political leanings of Generation Z. The much-talked-about youth study 2024 suggests that more young people are turning to the AfD compared to previous elections. This research has been met with skepticism as it collected data through an online panel.
A Forsa survey, however, shows a completely different insight. In this survey, the Greens and Union are more popular among youth, with the AfD receiving only 14% support. König views these surveys as lacking scientific nuance. "They're great at discovering opinions, but they can't really prove cause and effect. It's just a type of accident report. It's entertainment, but not science."
A political scientist discovered in a European-wide study that young voters who have already voted are more likely to support populist parties. "This demonstrates that young voters who have already voted are more extreme, meaning they'd support more populist parties than first-time voters," explains König. "Young voters have not yet formed a stable political identity. Compared to older voters, they're more flexible and sometimes more extreme in their voting habits. They have a wider emotional spectrum."
The study's conclusion: Lowering the voting age does not help mitigate the growth of right-wing populist parties. Contrary to the initial aim of the law put forth by policymakers.
It's important to note, however, that young people may not necessarily hold right-wing beliefs when they vote for these parties. Nonetheless, they are more inclined towards voting for populist parties, according to König. There are several reasons for this. One reason is that young people are more likely to respond emotionally to political situations. While disappointed with the current German political scene, "they tend to favor extreme parties, whether it's the Left or the AfD."
Additionally, the AfD enjoys a significant online presence. On social media platforms like Instagram, TikTok, YouTube, and others, the party has nearly 2.7 million followers - a number that far exceeds that of its counterparts. The Greens have around 1.4 million fans, while the SPD has around 1.3 million.
The AfD also maintains a strong presence on TikTok – a platform that they started using much earlier than other parties. Economics Minister Robert Habeck, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and FDP candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann only created accounts relatively recently.
In summary, young voters, who are more flexible and sometimes more extreme in their political decisions, are more likely to support populist parties. The mere act of reaching voting age does not guarantee that they will shift towards a particular stance but it does increase their likelihood of voting for a populist party. Their political identity is still forming, making them more susceptible to emotional reactions and the appeals of controversial parties.
Newcomers to TikTok struggle to make their presence felt since they don't grasp the platform's dynamics yet. TikTok thrives on attention, frequently generated through emotions - terror, attachment, or prejudice, as per an expert. Politicians like Katarina Barley and Olaf Scholz aim to educate people through a campaign based on issues; nevertheless, they'd have to shift their language and opt for distinct descriptions to counter-attack and foster a contrasting emotional connection.
A youth survey conducted by the TUI Foundation portrays European politics as failing to resonate with young folk. Interviews with 16-26-year-olds in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, and Poland suggest that less than one fifth feel strongly or extremely profoundly represented by the European Parliament.
The Federal Youth Council suggests that the AfD could take advantage of youthful frustrations and trepidations. The Council exhorts democratic parties to communicate better with 16 and 17-year-olds.
Political scientist König laments the absence of European issues before the European election. "Many sensible proposals are lined up but overlooked. This concerns me, as people and youth don't notice this. Fundamental values such as peace, prosperity, and fairness are deemed self-explanatory; thus, voter turnout seems irrelevant."
Nonetheless, Germany's youth is more pro-European than its elderly counterparts, as per a Bertelsmann study. But the voter turnout is inconsistent: only approximately 60 percent of youth under 25 wish to cast their ballot on Sunday.
Recent surveys suggest a movement toward the right in the European election. In France, Italy, and Austria, right-wing extremist parties are dominating, while in Germany, the AfD shares the second position with the Greens in polls.
Perhaps the lower voting age in Germany may present an issue especially for those who’ve been heavily courted. The SPD may end up boosting parties that have opposed this - including the AfD.
Read also:
- Despite the CDU and AfD opposing the decrease in the voting age for European elections in the Bundestag, individuals aged 16 and above in Germany will now be able to participate in these elections.
- With the European elections approaching, the union of CDU, FDP, and SPD, known as the Alliance 90/The Greens, and other parties are campaigning heavily to win the support of young voters, who have been shown to be more likely to support populist parties such as the AfD.
- During the European election campaign, German parties like the SPD and Alliance 90/The Greens are facing criticism for not addressing European issues adequately, whereas the AfD, with its significant online presence, frequently engages with young voters on social media platforms.
- In the 2024 youth study, there has been a rise in support for the AfD among young voters compared to previous elections, although a Forsa survey suggests that the Greens and Union remain more popular among youth, with the AfD receiving only 14% support.
