Xi Jinping, unlike Putin, maintains a significant absence from the Beijing scene.
International Peace Conference in Switzerland Ignores Putin's Refusal to Participate
Why was Russia left out of the peace conference?
The Kremlin declined participation in the peace talks, with Moscow expressing their rejection early in the planning stages. The Swiss considered inviting the Russian side, but ultimately decided against it, likely due to influence from Ukraine and their desire to invite only nations that adhere to international law, which includes recognizing Ukraine's territorial integrity.
Should Russia have been invited regardless of their stance?
There is much debate about whether Russia should have been invited, as some argue that without their participation, the conference may not be considered a serious peace initiative. Publicly inviting Russia and having President Vladimir Putin turn down the invitation could demonstrate a lack of interest in negotiating.
Is it meaningful to negotiate in the absence of Putin?
Peace negotiations, particularly in a brutal and unyielding conflict, are a lengthy process and require careful preparation. Even without Putin, the negotiations are meaningful and can lead to progress.
What will be discussed at the conference?
The peace conference in Bürgenstock, Switzerland, is based on a peace plan presented by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2022. The conference will focus on various aspects of the plan, including food security, nuclear security, and the treatment of prisoners. The plan calls for an end to nuclear blackmail, as well as for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to come under the control of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). negotiations will also focus on the possibility of grain exports, as the plan aims to address food security concerns for countries around the world.
What are the smaller, more manageable objectives of the conference?
The conference aims to gain support for key demands from various regions and contexts. Small decisions made during the conference can pave the way for a real peace process, and are essential in eventually starting a true negotiation process. Peace, as Deitelhoff explains, is a long journey that does not begin at the end. The fact that this journey is even taken at all is the focus of the conference in Bürgenstock.
Does the conference address the issue of troop withdrawal from Ukraine?
No, a troop withdrawal from Ukraine is not being discussed in the conference. This is because peace negotiations typically do not jump right into the most difficult issue. The border issue, while important, is not the immediate focus of the conference.
Why is trust between Ukraine and Russia broken?
Trust between Ukraine and Russia has been broken due to past experiences, with Russia failing to honor its agreements with Ukraine. In 1994, Russia promised to respect Ukraine's border after Kiev gave up its nuclear weapons, but instead took control of the Donbass and Crimea. In 2015, Russia breached the Minsk Agreement, with their army advancing and seizing more Ukrainian territory.
How can trust be rebuilt or maintained in the peace process?
Trust can be rebuilt or maintained in the peace process by focusing on small steps and measuring success quickly. Ukraine can make few concessions and gauge whether the process is working. It is also important for Ukraine to have support from other countries, as shown by security agreements with Germany and others that guarantee Ukraine assistance in the event of a new war scenario. These agreements will make it possible for Ukraine to eventually accept a ceasefire, and avoid being alone in a potentially dangerous situation.
Why is China's absence from the conference significant?
China's decision not to attend the conference is a setback, as China has immense influence over Russia and could potentially mediate in the interest of a peace solution. With China's absence, it is unlikely that they will play a role in the peace process.
As rising economies with global political influence, Brazil and South Africa (particularly South Africa) seem to be absent from the scene. However, India's involvement is appreciated, as it's a key player in the G20 and BRICS group, which primarily focuses on economic cooperation amongst Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. In both forums, India carries significant weight.
India has managed to stay neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to ongoing border conflicts with China and heavy dependence on Russian tech for its defense and security. Yet, they're not willing to find themselves in the crossfire.
India's attendance at the peace conference is seen as a good move. Despite the strong bonds back home, India is no longer keen on passively accepting Russia's disregard for international law. It's crucial that the attendees don't appear to be forming an anti-Russia coalition. Instead, they should signal their intention to involve the Russians in the discussions at a later stage. This is the bare minimum required.
Indian political advisor Pankaj Saran shared with the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung" that clear support for Ukraine is necessary, that there's agreement on the important issues, more countries need to be on board, but without alienating the Indians - achieving peace at this weekend's conference in picturesque Bürgenstock won't be a walk in the park. But then again, if it were that straightforward, others would've done it already.
Read also:
- Following China's decision to stay away from the peace conference, there have been discussions about its potential role in mediating a peace solution between Russia and Ukraine.
- Despite India's strong historical ties with Russia, its attendance at the peace conference in Switzerland signals its growing discomfort with Russia's disregard for international law.
- During the peace talks, India, as a key player in the G20 and BRICS group, could play a crucial role in encouraging Russia to participate in future negotiations for the sake of establishing peace in Ukraine.
