"Wuhledar serves as a perilous location for Ukrainians, potentially facing incarceration"
ntv.de: Mr. Reisner, reports from the Donbass suggest that the Russian momentum has lessened. Concurrently, Ukraine reported 23 assault attempts on Pokrovsk this weekend, a city currently experiencing some of the most intense fighting in Donbass. How close are the Russians to Pokrovsk presently?
Markus Reisner: Russian forces are approximately 5 to 6 kilometers from the city. The immediate push towards Pokrovsk has temporarily subsided, with the Russians adopting a tactic of approaching from the sides rather than a direct assault. Intense combat is ongoing north-east of Pokrovsk near Torez, while potential encirclements are developing in two locations south of the city.
Is the slowdown not due to the Russians running out of steam?
Fighting remains intense. Each Russian advance can be divided into several phases. In the initial phase, heavy artillery and rocket launches are deployed to wear down Ukrainian positions. Russian attacks are further supported by guided bomb deployments designed to almost eliminate Ukrainian support hubs. In the subsequent stage, light forces are introduced. Russian troops send small units, either on foot or motorcycles, to advance, making them hard to detect by drones. If drones are in abundance for both reconnaissance and attack, moving vehicles will be easily detected due to the dust they create. To avoid this, they use light forces, and any significant advance allows for the deployment of heavier combat elements.
Does this improve their chances of breaking through?
Simultaneous deployments of heavier combat elements typically occur, covering multiple kilometers. The goal is to pressure Ukrainian defenders into deploying their forces unevenly to counter various attacks, stretching their resources thin. This results in numerous assaults, as you mentioned earlier, exceeding 23 in one weekend. Armored vehicles can then capitalize on these small advances, enabling Russian forces to make incremental progress.
Are they not advancing directly towards Pokrovsk then?
Broader analysis of their eastern advance reveals that, instead of pushing westwards towards Pokrovsk, the Russians are focusing on expanding the occupied area at the flanks.
Are efforts being made on the flanks, particularly north and south, to introduce additional troops?
Intense fighting is taking place north of Torez, around 30 kilometers from Pokrovsk, while a 20-kilometer pocket has formed south of the city, apparent on current situation maps. Further south, around Vuhledar, Russian forces successfully captured two coal mines, with Ukrainian troops facing the threat of encirclement.
How crucial are these mine captures?
Significantly important. The terrain in the area is vastly flat, with limited ways to approach the enemy unnoticed except through natural windbreaks or small waterways. The terrain is disrupted by small villages associated with coal mining production facilities or similar. These mines offer strategic advantages due to their excavations that create artificial mounds and prominently placed mining towers that be used as observation points.
Has the Ukrainians lost this advantage at Vuhledar?
The Russians have yet to completely render these observation points useless. Russian forces shared a video the previous day depicting the destruction of a mining tower northeast of Vuhledar using guided bombs, eliminating the tower's observation capabilities. The Russians are slowly progressing from one mine to the next, making an eventual capture of Vuhledar inevitable despite resistance. Vuhledar is a mining town with numerous workers living nearby. Videos from the front show both sides destroying individual vehicles and soldiers, with these events being referenceable. The Russian advance, including attacks, is moving further westward.
What is the situation in the Kursk area, where the Ukrainians have been holding Russian territory for some time?
A cat-and-mouse game is being played in this area, with the roles reversed compared to Donbass. In this case, the Ukrainians have advanced into Russian territory, with the Russians attempting to strike at their flanks and push them back. The Ukrainians are counter-attacking in response. This sees-saw dynamic continues.
Does Zelensky's announcement that only four of 14 brigades are adequately equipped affect all front lines?
Yes, this impact is being felt on the Kursk front line as well, in Donbass, and even in the Kharkiv area. Strike-ready units are essential for Ukraine's defensive measures, as well as its strategic planning. The goal is to reorganize and broaden its combat power, enabling a future offensive in 2024. This can only be accomplished by restoring mechanized forces, such as tanks and armored fighting vehicles, as well as the necessary artillery support. However, much material was depleted and destroyed during the summer offensive of 2023. Also, many of the 31 Abrams tanks provided by the US were lost, and Leopard II tanks were damaged in the ensuing offensive and subsequent battles.
Approximately 100 Leopard 1 tanks are scheduled to arrive soon. How far will this help Ukraine?
Compared to the Leopard 2, the Leopard 1 is deemed less powerful. Its technology is on par with Russian and Ukrainian equipment from the 1970s and 80s, with occasional updates. For Ukraine to maintain its current territory, it requires at least 300 tanks. To recapture territories by 2025, it needs at least 3,000 tanks. The Ukrainian president frequently echoes, "This is not enough." This not only applies to the current defense against Russian assaults but also for the anticipated offensive in the following year.
In the meantime, Zelensky has been pushing for Western approval to utilize long-range weapons. This includes striking enemy command centers, airbases, and essential infrastructure on Russian soil. Is this debate worth the controversy? Would it significantly impact the situation?
As per American sources, the Russians have relocated their combat aircraft to areas beyond the reach of ATACMS, long-range U.S. missiles. They had ample time to prepare due to the lengthy nature of this debate. Now, attacks on command and control centers, logistics facilities, and ammunition depots are technically possible. However, this debate reveals a divide within the West, which Russia leverages to its advantage. The Kremlin issues nuclear threats, escalates tensions, and effectively dominates the information sphere. Meanwhile, Russia has bombarded Ukraine with over 4,000 guided bombs, 300 cruise missiles, and numerous drones in the past month alone. This has resulted in Zelensky stating that 80% of critical infrastructure has been either damaged or destroyed.
Frauke Niemeyer interviewed Markus Reisner
Given the Russian focus on expanding their territory on the flanks, how is the situation around The Kursk area?
Despite holding Russian territory in the Kursk area for some time, a cat-and-mouse game is being played. The Ukrainians have advanced into Russian territory, and the Russians are attempting to strike at their flanks and push them back, leading to a seesaw dynamic.
