Worldwide aircraft fleet is expected to grow even stronger in the next 20 years
The worldwide aircraft fleet is expected to grow even stronger than previously estimated according to Airbus in the next 20 years. The European aircraft manufacturer raised its estimates, particularly for long-haul aircraft, which have regained popularity following the Corona lull. Airbus forecasts that the number of passenger and cargo aircraft will increase to 48,230 by 2044, a more than doubling of the current fleet.
During this period, 42,430 new aircraft will be delivered, of which 41,490 will be passenger aircraft, representing a four percent increase over the previous year's projections.
Many airlines are modernizing their long-haul fleets, and the growing demand from Asia is also a significant factor. "We see particularly strong growth in Asia and the Middle East, led by India and China," said Bob Lange, who is responsible for market analysis and forecasts at Airbus. The domestic air traffic in China is expected to surpass that of the US.
The strongest growth, according to Airbus, is forecasted for long-haul aircraft. The demand could increase by nine percent worldwide to reach 8,290 aircraft due to double-digit growth in North and South America. In the Middle East, where long-haul aircraft orders have been particularly high, there are now reportedly excess capacities.
Short-haul aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 still make up the largest market share. They also benefit from their extended ranges, allowing them to be used on longer routes, such as across the Atlantic. The certification of the Airbus A321XLR, designed for long-haul use, is expected soon, and Boeing is working on a version of the 737 MAX capable of longer ranges. Airbus forecasts a growth of three percent for the short-haul segment in the next 20 years, reaching 33,510 aircraft.
After years of analysis, Airbus revised its estimates for the global aircraft fleet, projecting stronger growth than previously anticipated. The manufacturer's new forecast suggests a more than doubling of the current fleet by 2044, with Airfleet expected to reach 48,230 passenger and cargo aircraft. According to Airbus, this growth will be primarily driven by the strong demand for long-haul aircraft, with estimates indicating a nine percent increase worldwide, leading to 8,290 long-haul aircraft by 2044.
