World Climate Conference: How are China and the USA positioning themselves?

COP28 - World Climate Conference: How are China and the USA positioning themselves?

At the World Climate Conference in Dubai, the two biggest climate sinners on the planet, China and the USA, spoke out in more detail for the first time.

The two world powers, otherwise at odds on many issues, agreed to ignore the proverbial elephant in the room: This refers to the phase-out of oil, gas and coal demanded by dozens of states and hundreds of environmental organizations. US Vice President Kamala Harris did not mention the issue at all in her speech to the plenary session. And also in the speech by the Chinese vice head of government the evening before: droning silence.

This is no wonder. The USA, for example, is now the largest oil producer in the world and also the largest oil consumer. And the giant empire of China, which emits almost a third of all greenhouse gases worldwide, intends to continue relying on climate-damaging coal for decades to come and will not be climate-neutral until 2060 at the earliest.

US Vice President: failure to act harms billions of people

Harris first praised her government's climate policy and then warned that humanity had reached a decisive moment in view of the escalating climate crisis. "Our collective action - or worse, our inaction - will impact billions of people for decades to come." Harris had confirmed her attendance in Dubai at short notice after her boss, US President Joe Biden, was criticized for his absence this year.

In fact, her own government is also called upon to act: after China, the USA emits the most climate-damaging greenhouse gases in the world, primarily CO2 and methane. What's more, per capita CO2 emissions are almost twice as high as in China at a good 14 tons. The US government's annual climate report states that although greenhouse gas emissions are falling, this is not enough to meet national and international climate commitments and targets. The bar is set relatively high: the USA wants to generate its electricity without carbon dioxide emissions by 2035 and reduce its emissions to net zero by 2050 at the latest.

Nevertheless, US climate envoy John Kerry has announced that the USA will join an alliance of countries to phase out coal. This is absolutely necessary in order to keep the target agreed in Paris in 2015 of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees compared to pre-industrial times. The end date would be 2035 at the latest - which experts do not consider sufficient.

Climate crisis in real time - also in North America

The climate crisis is now also playing out in real time in the USA: In recent years, they have been repeatedly hit by extreme weather events - including record heat, drought, violent tropical storms, torrential rain or devastating forest fires. Metropolises such as New York and Washington disappeared in thick orange smoke from forest fires in Canada this summer.

And China? In his speech, Vice Prime Minister Ding Xuexiang began by emphasizing in detail that China is a pioneer when it comes to the energy transition. "We are the world's largest manufacturer and seller of e-cars," he reported. Half of all e-cars worldwide are on the road in China. And now only half of the energy comes from fossil sources. 50 percent of the world's wind turbines come from China, and 80 percent of all solar installations.

In fact, there have been a number of positive developments recently. For example, an analysis by the Helsinki-based Center for Energy Research and Clean Air (CREA) caused a stir in mid-November. According to the calculations, China's greenhouse gas emissions could "structurally" decrease as early as next year. Emissions will continue to rise in 2023. At the same time, however, wind and solar energy have been expanded at an unprecedented rate.

Officially, the giant empire of China, where half of the world's coal-fired power plants are located, only intends to gradually reduce its emissions from 2030 - which experts believe is incompatible with the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees. If the boom in renewable energies continues, this could happen much faster.

The biggest growth has been in solar energy, where an installed capacity of around 210 gigawatts is expected for 2023, according to CREA. This means that China has created twice as much solar energy capacity in just one year as the USA as a whole, writes CREA analyst Lauri Myllyvirta.

New rapprochement gives rise to hope

A major success in the preparations for COP28 was the fact that, following a summit meeting in the USA, Washington and Beijing now want to pull together again on climate protection. Both governments recently backed the G20 countries' commitment to tripling renewable energy by 2030 compared to 2020. However, the major powers had already agreed to cooperate once before, in Glasgow in 2021, with much fanfare, but this came to a standstill again due to the deterioration in relations.