Without the "Teflon mark", the Netherlands faces a new beginning
The changes to the traditional party system are much more evident in the Netherlands than in Germany. A party that has only just been founded could win Wednesday's election.
The Netherlands will elect a new parliament next Wednesday in an early election. The election became necessary after Prime Minister Mark Rutte's four-party coalition collapsed just before the political summer break due to a dispute over stricter asylum laws.
Since then, the government - consisting of Rutte's right-wing liberal VVD, left-wing liberal Democrats 66, the Christian Democratic CDA and the Calvinist Christian Union - has been in office on a caretaker basis. In all likelihood, this coalition will have to hand over the reins of government after the election. Mark Rutte, who is the longest-serving head of government in the EU after Viktor Orbán, has announced his departure from Dutch politics.
Similar to the Federal Republic of Germany two years ago, the Netherlands is therefore also facing the end of a political era and will have a new head of government for the first time in over 13 years. According to the latest polls, it is completely unclear who will succeed the Prime Minister, who is sometimes referred to as "Teflon Mark" by political observers due to his ability to keep crises away from his person and party.
63,000 votes are enough for a seat in parliament
The election to the Second Chamber of the States General (comparable to the German Bundestag) is traditionally a showcase for numerous political parties and movements, which - unlike in Germany - have a realistic chance of entering parliament. Due to the lack of a blocking clause, 20 parties are currently represented in the 150-seat parliamentary chamber. While in Germany five percent of the votes are required to be represented in state parliaments or the Bundestag, in the Netherlands around 0.67 percent or around 63,000 votes are needed for a seat in the second chamber. Of the 26 parties, movements and electoral alliances running next Wednesday, at least 18 can legitimately hope to be represented in the next parliament.
Political fragmentation in parliament makes it difficult to form a majority and form a government and has increased further in recent decades due to the emergence of more and more smaller and micro parties, which often represent very specific issues or social minorities. Although the introduction of a blocking clause is repeatedly raised as a possibility, it is unlikely that these ideas will be implemented in the near future.
A new party leads the polls
Current polls predict a three-way battle for victory. The "New Social Contract" (NSC) party, founded just three months ago by former CDA MP Pieter Omtzigt, and the VVD, which is being led into the election by Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz following Rutte's departure, are tied with around 18% of the vote each. Close behind is the joint list of Social Democrats and Greens (PvdA/GroenLinks) around the former Vice-President of the European Commission, Frans Timmermans, who can count on around 16% of the vote.
In contrast, the Farmers' Citizens' Movement (BBB), which is only a few years old and was the strongest party in the provincial elections across the country in March, has now lost a lot of support and is only in the single-digit percentage range. However, as it has a majority in the First Chamber of the States General (Senate), which is made up of the provincial parliaments, and the Senate must approve all proposed legislation, it will retain its political influence.
The strongest force provides the "formateur"
While Pieter Omtzigt (NSC) is committed to a new relationship between citizens and the state, wants to strengthen the rights of parliament vis-à-vis the government and wants to establish a previously non-existent constitutional court to review government action, Dilan Yeşilgöz (VVD) focuses on the liberal right and, as the daughter of Kurdish-Turkish immigrants, could become both the country's first female prime minister and the first female head of government with an immigrant background. Frans Timmermans (PvdA/GL), on the other hand, is focusing on classic social democratic-green issues. According to current polls, the issues of migration, housing (there is a shortage of around 400,000 homes across the country) and green transition (especially in the agricultural sector, which is particularly relevant for the Netherlands) are decisive and could be decisive in the election.
Traditionally, the leading candidate of the strongest political force in the second chamber is tasked with negotiating a coalition as a so-called "formateur". It is therefore not unlikely that either the NSC or the VVD will be asked to organize a political majority. There is also considerable overlap between the two parties in terms of content, but as things stand, it will not be enough for them alone. On the other hand, there is greater sympathy for a left-green alliance among younger people between the ages of 18 and 35, as they see Timmermans in particular as a figurehead for a different policy.
Coalition negotiations in the Netherlands have been characterized by one thing in recent decades: they took time. After the 2021 elections, it took almost ten months for King Willem Alexander to swear in Mark Rutte as the new and old head of government and his cabinet.
Crisis of confidence between the population and political parties
Both the end of the previous government and the emergence and great popularity of new political forces must be viewed against the backdrop of a profound crisis of confidence between the population and political parties. According to surveys, this reached its peak in the last parliamentary elections in 2021. Whereas in the 1980s around 80% of the population still voted for the traditional mainstream parties at the center of the political spectrum, this figure is currently only around 40%.
The CDA, the Christian Democratic Party, is currently feeling the effects of this particularly keenly. Once the country's main political party, it was usually the strongest force in the Dutch parliament until the mid-noughties. In 2021, it only came fourth with 9.5 percent of the vote. In current polls, its approval rating is between three and five percent. While its rivals NSC and BBB, which were founded by former CDA officials, are doing better in the polls, the party is trying to win back the trust of citizens with new and fresh faces. Whether this will materialize in the short time available remains to be seen.
The Netherlands and Germany are important trading partners and close allies in the EU and NATO. The political and economic ties are manifold and are mainly coordinated via the federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Lower Saxony, which border the Netherlands. The new government in The Hague can therefore build on the close cooperation of recent years and further expand relations in areas relevant to the future, such as green hydrogen. Regardless of the outcome of the elections, this should also be desirable on the Dutch side.
Dr. Hardy Ostry is Head of the European Office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Kai Gläser is a consultant in the European Office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation.
The Netherlands is set to welcome a new parliament on Wednesday, following the collapse of Prime Minister Mark Rutte's coalition. Guest contributions are expected to contribute to the discussions leading up to the elections, as numerous political parties and movements look to secure their seats. In recent polls, the "New Social Contract" party led by Pieter Omtzigt and the VVD, now led by Justice Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz, are tied for the lead, with Frans Timmermans' Social Democrats and Greens close behind. However, regardless of the election results, the Netherlands and Germany will continue to maintain their close trading partnership and cooperation within the EU and NATO.
Source: www.ntv.de
