Withdrawal of the Russian Naval Group from the Baltic Sea due to drone threat?
On Sunday, three Russian warships, which were originally intended for a naval parade in St. Petersburg, left the Baltic Sea. Local media report that the celebrations in the harbor city will be significantly smaller than planned. Are security concerns the reason?
According to a report, the sudden departure of three Russian warships from the Baltic Sea before a planned naval parade in St. Petersburg could be a precaution against possible Ukrainian drone attacks. This is what the specialized magazine "European Security & Technology" writes, citing an assessment from the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Tuesday.
The ISW reports that Ukrainian drone attacks are forcing the Moscow military leadership to prioritize limited air defense assets for the protection of objects they consider valuable. According to an assessment of satellite data from early May, the Kremlin has deployed seven medium-range air defense systems around the residence of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin on Lake Waldsee in the Novgorod region. This concentration indicates gaps in the broad air defense, according to ISW analysts. Russia does not have enough air defense systems to protect all critical infrastructure in the west of the country.
The fact that Ukraine is able to hit targets in the St. Petersburg area is shown by an incident from early January. At that time, a gas terminal in the Baltic Sea port of Ust-Luga was reportedly on fire, allegedly caused by a drone attack. The magazine "European Security & Technology" speculates that a reevaluation of the security situation by Russian services could be the reason for the departure of the three warships of the Northern Fleet.
Putin's participation still uncertain
The submarine "Tambow", the cruiser "Admiral Levchenko", and the landing ship "Ivan Gren" were originally announced for the celebrations for the Russian Navy on July 28 in St. Petersburg. However, they left the Baltic Sea on Sunday with a course towards the north. They were last sighted on Monday in the Skagerrak in the North Sea.
The Russian daily "Novye Izvestia" reported that the celebrations in St. Petersburg this year will be significantly smaller than planned. The parade, which has taken place regularly since 2014 in the Kronstadt Bay, will not take place this year. Instead, twelve smaller ships and boats are expected to sail in formation on the Neva River. Military aircraft participation is also expected to be smaller. No reason for the reduction was given.
The Day of the Navy is, besides the Day of Victory on May 9, the second most important holiday in Russia. Since Putin's reintroduction in 2017, the main celebrations have taken place in St. Petersburg. However, there are also events at other naval bases. According to "Novye Izvestia", there is still no confirmation that Putin will be in St. Petersburg on July 28. In previous years, the naval parade was part of Putin's regular program.
The sudden departure of the Russian warships from the Baltic Sea could be a response to heightened political tensions with neighboring countries, as suggested by the Institute for the Study of War. The warships, including the "Tambow," "Admiral Levchenko," and "Ivan Gren," were initially intended for a naval parade in Saint Petersburg, a city strategically located near the Baltic Sea.
