With Trump, Harris has an opponent who takes the oxygen away from everyone

The campaign heat is already on between the designated US-Presidential candidate Harris and her opponent Trump. At the beginning of her campaign, Harris emphasizes Trump's condemnation as a criminal. To win the election, she must do much more than that, says political expert Jäger.

ntv.de: Kamala Harris is all but certain to be the US-Presidential candidate of the Democrats, Joe Biden announced his resignation even on TV last night. How can Harris maintain the initiative in her campaign after all the media attention?

Thomas Jäger: One question remains open, which interests everyone: Who will be Harris’ Vice-Presidential candidate? As long as that is not clarified, all eyes are still on her. She must use this phase to gather a few rough spots on the issues where she is not yet so firm. With Trump, Harris has an opponent who takes away the oxygen that attracts all media attention. She knows that. And she must try to prevent that.

Which Vice-Presidential candidate would be suitable for Harris in your opinion?

There are two names that stand out: the governors of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, and of North Carolina, Roy Cooper. And that's why they do: if they win their federal states, they bring a lot of electoral votes with them: 20 in Pennsylvania and 15 in North Carolina. That was the hurdle Biden failed to overcome at least in the polls - that he no longer had Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania so securely. These states Harris must win to gather enough people. It doesn't help if Harris performs better in the polls now and if the enthusiasm of the Democrats in the states where they are already winning increases.

The Democrats have actually gained some ground in the polls, Harris performs a little better than Biden did. Is it foreseeable that this will last?

There is a whole series of polls that show a slight increase in support among Democrats. That was to be expected, as attention has now turned to the Democrats. It is also to be expected that after the Democratic Convention, the approval will increase a little more. However, the overall situation remains unchanged. That means: Trump has a slightly easier advantage, especially in the Swing States.

According to media reports, former US-President Barack Obama plans joint campaign appearances with Harris. Do you believe Obama's support can give Harris' campaign a real boost?

Obama is a good campaigner, which will support Harris' candidacy. But Obama brings little fresh wind. The impression remains with many Americans that these eight years were not used effectively, they could have done much more. Nevertheless, Obama is helpful for Harris. Above all because she has to turn things around quickly. Whether she will succeed in that must be waited for in the coming weeks when the first serious numbers come out and the approval ratings have been measured for longer.

Which voter groups can Harris mobilize?

Harris has significantly increased the inclination of young democratic voters. However, she is still far from where Biden was when he won the election in 2020. That means there is still a lot of work to be done, especially among young voters as well as among African Americans and Hispanic Americans, to get them to the polls and to vote for the Democrats. The Republicans, on the other hand, have paid much more attention to African American men and Hispanic men and want to expand their voter base in these areas. The Democrats have to counteract that.

How can Harris win over African- and Hispanic-American voters?

Themes that are currently important for them are generally important for Americans. Two stand out in the surveys: one is inflation, and the other is immigration. These are the two issues that stand out above all. According to the surveys, there is also a third, persistent theme: namely, the dysfunction of the government. Two-thirds of Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction. This means Harris must try to highlight the achievements of the Biden administration's tenure while also distancing herself and saying: With me, there is another way to the future. It won't be enough to warn that Trump has terrible plans for the USA.

The effects of inflation are felt by Americans in their wallets. Consumer prices were three percent higher in June compared to the same month the previous year. However, the US economy is not doing too badly in general. Where does this impression come from that the country is going in the wrong direction?

Trump plays a big role in this. I remember the 2016 election. At that time, Rudy Giuliani campaigned for Trump. Giuliani has a reputation as a tough guy in security politics. He said: We need to make our cities safer. In interviews, Giuliani was criticized: Look at the crime statistics, the numbers have all improved, the cities are safer. And Giuliani said: The numbers are completely irrelevant. The felt insecurity is there, and it is constantly being fueled. Trump stokes this feeling that everything is going in the wrong direction. He convinces not only his supporters but also many people in anger at the government. It is difficult to counter this feeling with numbers - for example, by saying: Look, the pressure at the Mexican border has significantly decreased. Or look, inflation has significantly decreased.

Harris emphasizes the contrast to Trump in her appearances: She is an experienced prosecutor, he is a convicted felon. Does that work with voters?

One-third of voters do not find this appealing because they view the prosecution of Trump by the Biden administration and the Democrats as a witch hunt. It depends on how the swing voters in the middle decide, the independents. Among them, a certain part is considering whether they can still vote for Trump as a convicted felon. Now Trump has been convicted twice, his other trials are still hanging in the air. The sentencing in the hush money trial is supposed to be announced sometime in September. In this period, Harris could pick up on this and strongly score points. I believe, however, Harris does not only want to win voters with this tactic but also deter Trump. Because Trump is currently trying to define Harris as an inexperienced, left-wing woman. She counters this and says: Trump is a felon. That is the attempt of the two to define each other in public.

Interview with Thomas Jäger conducted by Lea Verstl

The Democrats, led by Kamala Harris, will face stiff competition from the Republicans and their candidate Donald Trump in the United States Presidency Election 2024.
To gain electoral votes and appease potential Vice-Presidential candidates, Harris might consider choosing governors from swing states like Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania and Roy Cooper from North Carolina.
Inflation and migration are two key issues that Harris must address to win over African-American and Hispanic-American voters, who have been feeling the pinch of inflation and are concerned about border security.
Despite positive polls, Harris's victory is not guaranteed, as the effects of inflation and the perception of the country's direction are significant factors that cannot be ignored, especially with former President Donald Trump's influence in the Republican party.