Will the "scrap cemeteries" be Russia's undoing?
How long can Russia endure its horrendous losses of military equipment on the battlefield? Many experts say for a while. However, signs are growing that the situation with armored vehicles and tanks is worsening.
Anastasija Blischtsik, spokesperson for the 47th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine, recently shared on social media: "We have rarely seen vehicles on the battlefield lately. The cemeteries of destroyed scrap are a sight to behold." In television interviews, she also stated that the Russian forces have run out of armored vehicles. While this statement should be taken with caution, there are indeed indications that the problems of the Kremlin troops with armored vehicles and tanks are continuing to grow.
OSINT specialists, who analyze satellite images, photos, and videos of military equipment, come to the conclusion in their assessments that Russia has approximately 9,300 armored personnel carriers remaining. A number that initially seems extremely high. Many of them, however, are said to be too old or no longer suitable for restoration, according to the Ukrainian news agency Unian. They give the number of operational armored personnel carriers as around 5,700, of which only around 1,350 are suitable for frontline use.
Everywhere in Russia, large storage facilities are available where massive amounts of military equipment are stacked up. Sometimes even from the Second World War. OSINT specialists often refer to satellite images, on which it can be seen how these storage facilities empty out over time as armored personnel carriers and other equipment are sent to the front. However, since military equipment is also located at non-visible locations, the numbers can never be absolute certainty.
Big Problems in 2026?
Many experts agree that Russia will face greater problems in supplying its troops with heavy military equipment by 2026. Not just armored personnel carriers, but also tanks.
An analyst named Covert Cabal, who has particularly focused on the latter, believes that Russia may not have many of the more modern T-72- and T-80-tanks left by mid-2026 - assuming the current intensity of combat continues. However, it is also possible that there are strategic adjustments from the Kremlin to avoid this, or that production under the new Defense Minister is ramping up even more.
The Kremlin troops are already preparing old military equipment and producing new tanks, but many observers believe that this will not be enough to offset the continuing heavy losses on the battlefield.
OSINT analyst "Jonpy99" told "Radio Liberty": "Russia is adjusting its tactics: fewer armored columns, but more infantry waves. However, one cannot say that Russia will ever have no tanks and other equipment at all, because they continue to produce them. The Russians also have the option of buying back former Soviet equipment from friendly countries." There are reportedly large stocks of military equipment from the Soviet era in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
The ongoing 'Attack on Ukraine' has led to significant losses of 'Wars and conflicts', with Russia facing depletion of its weapons inventory, particularly armored vehicles and tanks. Politicians and analysts predict that Russia may struggle to replenish its military equipment, including tanks, by 2026 due to production and supply chain challenges.
