Will the "scrap cemeteries" be Russia's undoing?
How long can Russia endure its devastating losses of military equipment on the battlefield? Many experts believe it can last a while. However, signs are growing that the situation with armored vehicles and tanks is worsening further.
Anastasia Blishchik, spokesperson for the 47th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine, recently shared on social media that they have seldom seen vehicles on the battlefield lately. She also stated on TV that the Russian forces have run out of armored vehicles. While this statement should be taken with caution, there are indeed indications that the problems of the Kremlin troops with armored vehicles and tanks are continuing to grow.
OSINT specialists, who analyze satellite images, photos, and videos of military equipment, estimate that Russia has around 9,300 armored personnel carriers left. This is a very high number initially, but many of them are reportedly too old or not suitable for restoration, according to the Ukrainian news agency Unian. They give the number of operational armored personnel carriers as around 5,700, of which only roughly 1,350 are suitable for frontline deployment.
There are massive storage facilities all over Russia, where military equipment is piled up in large quantities. Some of it even dates back to World War II. OSINT specialists often refer to satellite images, which show how these storage facilities are emptying over time as armored personnel carriers and other equipment are sent to the front. However, since military equipment is also hidden at non-visible locations, the numbers can never be absolute.
Major problems in 2026?
Many experts agree that Russia could face greater problems in supplying its troops with heavy military equipment by 2026. Not just armored personnel carriers, but also tanks.
An analyst named Covert Cabal, who has focused particularly on tanks, believes that Russia may no longer have almost any modern T-72 and T-80 tanks by mid-2026 - assuming the current intensity of combat operations continues. However, it is also possible that there are strategic adjustments from the Kremlin to avoid this, or that production under the new Defense Minister is ramped up even more.
The Kremlin troops are already preparing old military equipment and producing new tanks, but many observers believe this will not be enough to offset the continuing heavy losses on the battlefield.
The OSINT analyst "Jonpy99" told "Radio Liberty": "Russia is adapting its tactics: fewer armored column attacks, more infantry waves. One cannot say that Russia will ever have no tanks and other equipment at all, as they continue to produce them. The Russians also have the option of buying back former Soviet equipment from friendly countries." There are reportedly large stocks of military equipment from the Soviet era in Belarus and Kazakhstan.
The 'Attack on Ukraine' has led to significant issues in the supplies of tanks and other heavy military equipment for Russia. As experts predict, Russia may encounter major problems in equipping its troops with tanks by 2026, due to ongoing heavy losses. An analyst, Covert Cabal, suggests that Russia may lack nearly all modern T-72 and T-80 tanks by mid-2026, given the current intensity of combat operations.
