France election - Will Le Pen's right-wing nationalists come to power?
Many in France are rubbing their eyes in surprise and Germany and Europe are looking at Paris with concern. Will the Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen manage to gain an absolute majority in the parliamentary election this Sunday and install a right-wing national government in France for the first time since World War II? Or will the extreme right be blocked by the alliance of the Middle-Left forces, who have made it clear that they do not want to govern together afterwards?
As opponents, Marine Le Pen's young star, Jordan Bardella (28), a political godson of Le Pen, and the eloquent Premier Minister Gabriel Attal (35) face off. President Emmanuel Macron appointed Attal as Premier at the beginning of the year in the hope that the young and dynamic Attal would present a bulwark against Le Pen and Bardella's advance.
Seat distribution difficult to predict
In the first round, the Right-National Front now led, followed by the new Left Alliance and Macron's Middle-Lager. 76 of the 577 parliamentary seats have already been allocated, most of them for the RN (39) or the Left Alliance (32). "Unlike in a German federal election, the seat distribution after the second round is difficult to predict," says the political scientist Isabelle Guinaudeau from the Parisian Sciences Po University.
Since the parliamentary seats are allocated according to the majority vote, many third-placed candidates from other parties have withdrawn in over 200 constituencies to increase the chances that the remaining candidate from a bourgeois party beats the RN candidate. Whether this protective wall against the extreme right will hold this time is the big question.
Macron under pressure if RN gets an absolute majority
It is "very difficult to anticipate" whether the voters of eliminated or withdrawn parties will support the RN or their counterpart in the second round, and the result will be close in many cases, says Guinaudeau.
And what government relationships does France face? It is expected that the existing government of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal will still be in charge for some days, at least until clarity about the formation of a future government emerges.
If the RN achieves an absolute majority, Macron would be under political pressure to appoint a Premier from the ranks of the Right-National Front. This would mean that for the first time since 1997, there would be a so-called cohabitation in France, meaning that President and Prime Minister represent different political directions.
Help Conservative Le Pen to Majority?
With a strong relative majority for the RN, it is calculated that this will try to attract further deputies from the bourgeois-conservative Républicains (LR) to its side to gain decision-making power in parliament.
The former ruling party had split in the run-up to the election. Its chairman Éric Ciotti had announced an independent cooperation with the RN, but only a smaller number of deputies followed him. The question now is how the other deputies will behave, who in the first round gathered around ten percent of the voter support.
In the moment, as it goes in France, the alliance against the RN is working, but since the other camps including the resurgent Socialists do not want to react in a national coalition with one another, the current government may remain in power as a caretaker government or an expert government. France is facing political standstill. A new project could not be brought forward by a government without a majority.
Le Pen profited from disappointment over Macron
The runoff of the French election is undoubtedly a power struggle between President Macron and RN leader Le Pen, who have faced each other as presidential candidates twice before. Macron promised in 2017 upon taking office to stop the rise of the National Front and keep the party, which at the time still bore its original name, in check.
Macron presented his new center-alliance in 2017 as an opportunity to embark on a new world with more growth and justice. While the ambitious young president quickly claimed a place on the international stage with his visions, many people in France felt overlooked and dismissed in the metropolitan areas with their everyday concerns.
At this point, Le Pen stepped in and presented herself as the spokesperson for the disenfranchised, who are receptive to the fear of migration and the loss of national identity stoked by the RN. The renaming of the previously extremist party was part of a rebranding and abandonment of overtly radical positions. It is clear that her plan worked, making her party electable even in the bourgeois middle.
European trend towards the right
The National Rally is like other right-wing parties in other European countries such as Italy, the Netherlands, or Germany on the way to becoming a new people's party – at the expense of the formerly strong bourgeois parties. In France, Macron weakened Socialists and Conservatives with his 2017-created center-alliance by integrating leading representatives of both camps into his broad stream. The Macron coalition now, after the failed power play of the president for more power with the advanced parliamentary election, is itself facing a pile of rubble and, according to all forecasts, will only be represented in parliament in significantly reduced numbers.
- The Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen, aims to gain an absolute majority in the upcoming parliamentary election in France.
- Jordan Bardella, a young star within the RN and political godson of Le Pen, will face off against Premier Minister Gabriel Attal, appointed by Emmanuel Macron.
- Guinaudeau from Sciences Po University notes that seat distribution after the second round of the election is difficult to predict.
- Many third-placed candidates have withdrawn in over 200 constituencies to boost the chances of a bourgeois candidate over the RN candidate.
- Achieving an absolute majority would put pressure on Macron to appoint a Premier from the RN, potentially leading to cohabitation for the first time since 1997.
- In the event of a strong RN majority, the party may try to attract deputies from the Républicains (LR) to gain decision-making power in parliament.
- Disgruntled voters who felt overlooked by Macron's government may have contributed to Le Pen's rise as a spokesperson for the disenfranchised.
- The National Rally in France is part of a broader right-wing trend in Europe, with parties like Italy's and the Netherlands' gaining popularity at the expense of traditional bourgeois parties.
- The Macron coalition, weakened by the election and facing reduced representation in parliament, is expected to be a shell of its former self.
