- Who's the one speaking now?
Christian Lindner's prime time, his chance to shine. The issue is, what will he do with it?
At midday, the Federal Minister of Finance will officially unveil the 2025 budget blueprint to the Bundestag. That fiscal strategy, which the leaders of the traffic light coalition could only agree upon after numerous negotiations, almost splitting the government apart. The one that still has a shortfall of 12 billion euros.
Now, it's up to the parliament to turn the numbers into law. It promises to be a heavy political task. The challenge, and sometimes the dirtiness, of the job can be gauged from Lindner's performance - the traffic light politicians are wary of him and attribute everything to the FDP and its chairman in these days.
Christian Lindner in a tight spot
Will Lindner present the budget as Finance Minister? Or, acting as FDP chairman, attempt to revive his ailing party with a few bold statements? The fear of a provocation, leading inevitably to new cracks in the traffic light coalition, is great.
Lindner is under the microscope of the parliament on Tuesday morning, every eye is on him. The introduction of the budget bill is traditionally the first item on the agenda post-summer break. It's, in essence, the official commencement of the multi-week budget negotiations, during which the shaky traffic light parties are likely to search for profiling areas, conflicts included.
"Here, three parties with different ideologies converge," says Dennis Rohde, the SPD parliamentary group's budget spokesman, to stern. "Our duty, however, is to provide solutions, not complaints about problems." In other words: It won't be easy.
Especially since the pressure on Christian Lindner is mounting within his own ranks. After the election losses in the east - expelled from the state parliament in Thuringia, failed to make it into Saxony's parliament - the frustration among some liberals is palpable. A grassroots initiative demands an exit from the traffic light coalition, an end to the "castle course" - or Lindner's resignation as party chairman.
Leading FDP politicians are not willing to make the ultimatum their own, they firmly reject an early end to the traffic light. But the incident underscores: There's unrest among the liberals. At the beginning of the year, a survey of FDP members only barely favored remaining in the traffic light. And now? The debt brake will be observed, but the poll numbers are still in the gutter.
Lindner is in a quandary. He must keep his followers happy without sabotaging the budget negotiations so much that it leads to an early coalition collapse. The political fallout would be substantial, possibly disastrous for the FDP: According to current polls, the liberals would even fail to secure a seat in the Bundestag in new elections.
So, the question is: Can this work out?
SPD budget holder Rohde aims to reduce budget deficit to single-digit billions
The budget is to be passed in November. The Greens are already announcing "significant improvements" to the government draft, the SPD also sees a need for change. "One project for sure is the GMA, which needs to be lowered to a single-digit billion amount," says budget politician Rohde. Translation: the 12 billion euro deficit.
This size is currently estimated for the so-called global overspending (GMA). The amount must be saved in 2025. However, the method of doing so is still unclear. In principle, this deficit is filled during the fiscal year with the money that remains unused. The GMA is thus a hopeful figure.
"The goal is to hit a two percent budget volume at the GMA, which amounts to 9.6 billion euros," says Rohde. He believes this is a realistic sum that wouldn't otherwise be spent. "For implementation, we expect constructive proposals from the federal government as well."
Christian Lindner, who also aims to reduce the budget deficit to 9.6 billion euros, has already offered his help. When asked about potential savings, he said on "Report from Berlin": "I'm always open to making further suggestions." However, the SPD and Greens are likely to have different ideas than the finance minister, as they would prefer to reform the existing debt rules.
The future of the coalition hinges on the budget experts of the factions. Rohde, an SPD member, is hopeful that a solid, constitutionally compliant budget will be achieved in the end. "The negotiations will not be public, but quiet and orderly with the coalition partners." This can also be seen as a subtle message to the traffic light leaders, who have often aired their differences in the media.
From midday, it will be seen if everyone adheres to this plan.
The Federal Parliament will be the body responsible for turning the 2025 budget blueprint into law, a task considered heavy politically due to the potential for profiling areas and conflicts. The performance of Christian Lindner, both as Finance Minister and FDP chairman, is closely watched, with traffic light politicians remaining wary of any provocative actions that could lead to coalition cracks.
During the multi-week budget negotiations, each traffic light party will likely seek profiling areas and potential conflicts. Dennis Rohde, the SPD parliamentary group's budget spokesman, emphasizes the need for finding solutions instead of complaining about problems, acknowledging the complexity of the task at hand.
