Who remains unclear about the victor in the 2024 presidential contest
Many individuals in the United States view this election as holding significant stakes. From my perspective, it's still an encounter with multiple potential conclusions – ranging from a clear Harris triumph to a contest that can't be projected until late into election night (or week) to a decisive Trump victory.
Let's start by considering a straightforward scenario: Harris' most straightforward route to victory includes clinching the "red barrier" states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. If she loses in the Sunbelt battlegrounds (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina), winning the three Great Lakes states, along with Nebraska's 2nd District, and all the other states Joe Biden won in 2020, would give Harris an exact 270 electoral votes.
Current polling averages in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin show the gap between Harris and Trump at less than a point at present. If this persisted until Election Day, it would represent the first time in at least 50 years that any of those three states had final average margins within a point.
More than that, the gaps in these states have been relatively close since Harris entered the race in July. Neither Trump nor Harris has ever led in any of these states by 5 points or more, echoing the national polling. It's the first time in over 60 years that no candidate has led by 5 points or more nationally at any point in the race.
Many Republicans are banking on the close polling as a sign of an impending landslide win for Trump in November. The former president exceeded polls significantly in 2016 and 2020. If he did so again, he might easily surpass 300 electoral votes.
However, it's prudent to be skeptical about assuming that a polling error would benefit Trump. Going back to 1972, we've never experienced three presidential cycles in a row in which the same party benefited from a state polling error. Actually, surveys in the key battlegrounds in 2022 underestimated Democrats. If we had a polling error similarly to 2 years ago, Harris would likely surpass 300 electoral votes.
Battleground state polling averages aren't infallible. The average deviation is 3.4 points since 1972, and 5% of the time, they deviate by more than 9.4 points. Even an average deviation in the key battlegrounds could transform the election into a landslide.
You might be tempted to predict the course of a potential polling error based on macro trends. Biden's approval rating is dismal. No incumbent's party has ever won another term when the president's approval rating is as low as this. No incumbent's party has ever won another term when such a small proportion of people think the country is headed in the right direction.
However, Trump might not be the right candidate to capitalize on these structural advantages if he emerges victorious. If he wins, he would become the second least-liked candidate to do so since pollsters began tracking candidate likability during the mid-20th century. The only presidential winner who was less popular was Trump himself in 2016. Remember that Republicans underperformed in the 2022 midterm elections, despite macro indicators pointing in their favor.
Consider party registration. The trends aren't as clear as they might initially seem. Republicans have been gaining on Democrats in all the crucial battleground states over the past four years. This, combined with national party identification trends, would typically point toward a Republican landslide in 2024.
However, it's unclear how many registered Republicans will cast their votes for Trump. It's conceivable, as the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll of Pennsylvania suggests, that Harris will draw a higher share of Democrats than Trump will of Republicans. So with registered Democrats outnumbering registered Republicans in the Keystone State, such an outcome would practically ensure that Harris wins Pennsylvania.
What makes it even more intriguing is that we are witnessing a close race despite a significant shift in voting patterns from four years ago. Trump appears set to deliver one of the best performances by a Republican presidential nominee with African American voters in recent history. This is particularly true among young African American men.
However, Harris appears to be outperforming any Democratic presidential nominee this century with White women. While her improvements aren't as significant as Trump's with African American voters, White women make up a much larger portion of the electorate. Hence, these shifts might offset each other significantly.
This means the election is probably going to hinge on the few voters who remain undecided.
More than two-thirds of likely voters believe that this is the most consequential election of their lifetime, including 72% of Trump supporters and 70% of Harris' backers. The 5% of voters who are presently undecided will determine which of them emerges from this election satisfied.
It's ironic that such a significant election might be decided by individuals who don't show much interest in it.
The politics of this election have led to close polling in key states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with some surveys suggesting a gap of less than a point between Harris and Trump. Additionally, the outcome of this election could be heavily influenced by the undecided voters, as over two-thirds of likely voters believe this is the most consequential election of their lifetime.
