Which individuals are paired up in Potsdam?
After the election in Brandenburg, the latest polls indicate a slim majority for the current red-black-green coalition, as long as the Greens secure a seat in the state parliament. However, the Green Party's chances of surpassing the five-percent threshold are not certain.
A poll carried out a few days before the election shows the Greens, the Left, and the Independent Voters all falling short of the necessary threshold. What implications does this have for coalition possibilities in the Brandenburg parliament? Let's examine the ntv.de Coalition Calculator with the latest poll data:
Please note: The Coalition Calculator data is continually updated.
The Social Democrats are recording strong showings in Brandenburg polls, with results ranging from 22 to 26 percent. Incumbent Minister President and SPD front-runner Dietmar Woidke is pushing his party to be the most powerful force in this eastern state. However, the AfD has consistently outperformed in recent polls.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) has a chance of becoming the largest faction in the state parliament, following in the footsteps of Thuringia. However, AfD faction leader Hans-Christoph Berndt has no prospects for a successful government formation: He is politically alone in Potsdam without any allies.
The AfD also faces the risk of repeating the 2019 state election scenario, where the right-wing party topped the polls leading up to the election, only to finish behind the SPD on election night. Incumbent Minister President Woidke is counting on a similar outcome this time around.
The experienced SPD politician is well-liked by the public, with over half of respondents wanting him to continue as Minister President. Dietmar Woidke is leaving no stone unturned: He has announced his resignation in the event of an AfD victory. "If the AfD comes in first, I can't continue as Minister President," Woidke said.
Only three parties besides the AfD?
A great deal hinges on the number of votes the other parties receive in Brandenburg. The CDU could secure up to 16 percent with its top candidate Jan Redmann, positioning it as the third-strongest force in the Potsdam parliament, while the Wagenknecht faction (BSW) is estimated to garner up to 14 percent.
If the Greens, Left, and Independent Voters fail to surpass the five-percent threshold on election night, it will depend on the district-level vote results: If one of these parties secures a direct mandate in one of the 44 Brandenburg constituencies, it could still make it into the state parliament as a faction.
If neither the Greens, the Left, nor the Independent Voters succeed, Woidke would have to consider a new arrangement in the event of a victory. In this scenario, only four parties - instead of the current six - would be represented in the Brandenburg parliament. The SPD might then have to form a government based on a red-black-purple coalition instead of a "Kenya" coalition.
The Commission, recognizing the potential impact of the district-level vote results, has also published a report on the use of the data to analyze the possibilities of smaller parties securing a direct mandate in the Brandenburg constituencies and entering the state parliament as a faction. If neither the Greens, the Left, nor the Independent Voters manage to surpass the five-percent threshold, the current coalition structure in the Brandenburg parliament would drastically change, requiring the SPD to consider alternative coalition options such as a red-black-purple coalition.
