Which candidate, Harris or Trump, currently leads in the public opinion surveys?

Visual representations and numeric facts or figures - Which candidate, Harris or Trump, currently leads in the public opinion surveys?

Which one's it going to be: Trump or Harris? That's the query American voters will solve on November 5th. Following Joe Biden's withdrawal, it's crystal clear that someone fresh will inhabit the White House. Whether it's Biden's successor or his VP is still unclear. As of now, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are virtually even in the polls. The graph below illustrates how the poll numbers have evolved since May.

Initially, Biden was trailing significantly behind Trump, but Harris managed to surpass the Republican and establish a lead after declaring her candidacy, as the graph reveals:

The data is sourced from "Real Clear Politics" or the site "Real Clear Polling," which is run by the institute. Analysts aggregate multiple polls for this purpose.

Poll numbers serve as a significant gauge of political sentiment in the US, but they ought to be handled with care. A slip-up in an interview, a subpar performance in the next TV debate, or some other recent event could easily flip them upside down, as stern US correspondent Jan Christoph Wiechmann elucidates meticulously (stern+).

Additionally, the US electoral system is intricate. Majority popular votes do not always translate to victory. Hillary Clinton learned this lesson in 2016 when she garnered the most votes yet failed to secure the presidency. US citizens do not directly elect their head of state. Instead, they vote for each state separately, and 538 electors, whose allocation is determined by the state's population, decide the outcome. A candidate needs more than 270 votes to clinch the presidency. This process is dubbed the "Electoral College," and the winner is the individual who accrues the most electors.

*Insight: Who's in the lead in the race for the White House, and why? Stern delves into numbers, polls, and probability every week at this juncture.*****

US Election 2024: Poll Numbers in Individual States

While certain states are strongly Democratic or Republican, others are contested, known as swing states. The outcome in these states is decisive for the final result. The graph below shows the current poll numbers, taking into account individual states and electors.

The journey to the White House remains long for Harris and Trump, and aside from numerous campaign events, the upcoming TV debate on September 10th is likely to sway the votes of the undecided. Shortly afterwards, the debate between the VP candidates will take place, which will also garner attention this year. The showdown between Republican J.D. Vance and Democrat Tim Walz is therefore also expected to draw some interest.**

In the upcoming election on November 5th, the choice between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, serving as Vice President under Joe Biden, will be decided by American voters. Regardless of the outcome, the United States of America will see a new inhabitant in the White House, as the current occupant, Biden, has withdrawn from the race.

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