Where Germany can prepare - and where not
Donald Trump is the clear favorite for the US election win in November. Is Germany prepared? What can the government do? Several preparations are already underway, but there is a problem.
The US election is not yet decided - but hardly anyone is calculating on a win for President Joe Biden anymore. It's high time for Germany and Europe to prepare for a second term of Donald Trump.
According to the Transatlantic Coordinator of the German government, Michael Link, preparations are already underway on various levels, as an FDP politician told "Wirtschaftswoche." But preparing for Trump comes with its limits. "Because exactly that's part of Trump's personality: being unpredictable and uncalculable," Link said. "The crucial problem: Should one prepare for someone who hardly calculates?" CSU defense politician Thomas Silberhorn called for talks with ntv.de about forging contacts on all levels. In Trump's extended environment, not everything is black and white. One must explore options for action.
There are indeed many papers and plans circulating around Trump. But how much of that will actually be implemented? Last week, Trump himself denied having anything to do with the ominous "Project 2025" of the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation. Behind it lies a radical restructuring of the government, significantly more powers for the president, and the abolition of the FBI and several ministries.
Trump's first term, however, provides clear indications of what to expect. The unknown factor he was in 2016 is no longer an issue. Back then, there were two major issues with Germany and Europe: defense and trade. But geopolitically, conflicts could also arise, for example, with China. For Germany alone, many of these issues would be too big. The EU, however, has weight - but only if it can bring it to the scale.
Defense - much is happening, but is it enough?
Is Germany sufficiently prepared in defense? It depends on what one means by "sufficient." Is "sufficient" the same as "satisfactory for Trump"? Then Germany would have something to show with its special defense budget. Since this year, the Federal Republic has met the target agreed with NATO partners of contributing two percent of its Gross Domestic Product to defense. 23 of the 31 alliance partners have achieved this by now, compared to seven five years ago.
An immediate trigger for the special defense budget was Russia's attack on Ukraine. But the general increase in defense spending also has much to do with Trump's threats and bluster, which should not be underestimated. Trump himself frequently points out how he has managed to get the NATO partners to "pay more."
Perhaps Trump does not stop at the demand for two percent. He seems to sympathize with a three-percent goal. Many experts agree with him to some extent. The USA already reaches this mark. Trump could also demand this from other countries. After all, it's part of his message that the USA should not be taken advantage of by countries like Germany.
So or So, Vance's Questions:
His efforts from the Europeans may not suffice for him. His designated Vice President, Senator J.D. Vance, asked at the Munich Security Conference: "If Ukraine is so important, why doesn't Europe do more?" Vance also stated at the Republican Party convention that some countries might be overusing the USA. In this sense, the Europeans remain those who make themselves look slim and present the Americans with a thin foot. However, the Europeans are indeed "doing more." According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, their relief efforts from January to April of this year were greater in total than those of the USA - at least in terms of the raw financial value of the aid.
German Support for Ukraine:
Trump's support for Ukraine might not have impressed him significantly. He does not believe that weapons aid for Ukraine is effective. He believes one must and can negotiate with Putin. He even claims he could make peace in a day.
There are concrete steps to make Ukraine aid "Trump-proof." For instance, the NATO coordinates the training of Ukrainians from Wiesbaden. Until now, this was in the hands of the US government.
Military Capabilities:
It is clear that Germany, militarily, is not independent of the Americans. Germany does not have nuclear weapons and will not have them in the short or medium term. Germany is therefore reliant on Washington's protection. But not only nuclear, there are also significant gaps in the conventional sphere.
The Bundeswehr, with its 185,000 soldiers and soldiers, is described by the CSU defense politician Silberhorn on ntv.de as the "minimum in peacetime" including unrestricted solidarity of NATO partners. In this context, the stationing of US long-range missiles in Germany can be understood as a plug for gaps - and as a preparation for a second Trump term. Under his leadership, such a step would have been unthinkable. Trump could still stop the stationing. The missiles are not to be installed until 2026.
NATO Skepticism:
Europe has not been idle regarding Trump's last term, but Germany remains reliant on the Americans - in Ukraine and in its own defense.
Trade Politics:
In trade policy, there are many potential conflicts. In a second term, new tariffs could arise. Trump has already announced a ten percent additional tariff on all things, and even more on Chinese products. As the economist Samina Sultan from the Institute for the German Economy (IW) said on ntv.de, this could cost the German economy between 110 and 137 billion Euros. She advises Germany and the Europeans to conclude free trade agreements worldwide. A such agreement with the South American Mercosur bloc has been on ice for a long time due to French concerns. The threat of counter-tariffs, as it also happened during Trump's first term, is also an option. However, its effect is difficult to measure.
Conclusion:
A lot has happened regarding Trump's last term, but Germany remains reliant on the Americans - in Ukraine and in its own defense.
In comparison to Trump's first term, the question of gas is once again a topic of concern. According to the Institute for the German Economy (IW), Germany now imports approximately 13.5 percent of its gas from the USA. Although there is no longer a dependence similar to that of Russia, a price increase would still be painful. High energy prices burden German companies and consumers anyway.
Trump could impose an export tax on gas. Due to the gas boom, the price has also risen significantly in the United States. According to a survey, this concerns many consumers there. A restriction of exports through tariffs could lower prices - at the expense of foreign buyers. Buyers like Germany.
Long-term, the demand for gas in Germany may decrease as renewable energies are further developed. However, this is a generational task that cannot be completed overnight. If gas from the USA were to become significantly more expensive, this would mean higher prices for German consumers initially. Alternative suppliers like Qatar currently provide significantly less than the USA. For all of Europe, the supply only makes up about 5 percent. Compared to almost 20 percent of Americans.
Summary: Rising tariffs would be a major problem for the German economy. Germany is only partially prepared for rising gas prices. There is no longer a dependence on a single supplier - as there was with Russia.
What about China and Israel?
Just as with China, Trump could once again pull out the tariff hammer. A trade war between the West and China would hit Germany hard. Trump could demand that Europe also impose tariffs on China, which in turn could impose tariffs on the EU. This scenario is described in a joint paper by three scientists from the European Council on Foreign Relations.
At least, the era of carefree investments in China is over. Other markets like Japan are moving more into focus. On the other hand, German companies remain loyal to the Chinese market. 54 percent, according to a survey by the German Chamber of Commerce, want to even increase their investments.
But militarily, there could also be a confrontation with China - over Taiwan. Experts have been warning about this for a long time. However, Germany would have little influence in these matters. The same applies to the conflict in the Middle East. If Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is again at Trump's side, voices from Berlin may fall silent.
Summary: Geopolitically, Trump's solo actions, be it towards China or in the Middle East, pose a threat. Germany has little room for maneuver.
The Solution: A Strong European Union
The solution to Germany's lack of weight would be a strengthened EU. Together, Europeans are stronger than when each acts alone. This requires a united front. "Now it needs a strong leadership role from the Federal Chancellor," says CSU politician Silberhorn. "We must not let ourselves be divided." In Trump's first term, there was competition over who would be the first to be received at the White House. This should not happen again.
However, a united front of Europeans against Trump is not to be expected at the moment. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban could throw himself into Trump's arms, while Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron might miss Biden painfully. Scholz has so far only managed to get other countries to a certain extent to support a stronger Ukraine aid. The divisions to the right-wing populists in Italy and perhaps soon in France are deep. Finding a common voice for Europe is still a challenge. Currently, it seems particularly difficult.
Therefore, the German federal government is calling for reforms in the EU. For instance, the introduction of qualified majority decisions in the external and security policy. However, this should also be achieved through a qualified majority decision - which would require lengthy negotiations. In addition, Transatlantic Coordinator Link can imagine "coalitions of the willing." For example, between NATO partners both inside and outside the European Union. In this regard, something has already been done, as the CEO of the arms company MDBA, Thomas Gottschild, stated in an interview with ntv.de.
Conclusion: The EU is already very strongly integrated, with member states cooperating as closely as anywhere else in the world. However, politically united it is not, and it is hardly to be expected that it will act with a single voice against Trump.
- The German government, in preparation for a potential second term of Donald Trump during the United States Presidency Election 2024, is focusing on strengthening its defense capabilities, given Trump's previous demands for allies to contribute more to NATO defense costs.
- In the context of European Union's relations with the United States, there have been discussions about forging contacts on all levels with Trump's extended environment, as it's essential to explore options for action given his unpredictable nature.
- Disagreements between the European Union and the United States under a second Trump term could potentially escalate, particularly in trade policy, with Trump considering imposing new tariffs that could significantly impact the German economy.
