What weapons Ukraine needs now

The USA's military support for Ukraine is crumbling. And things are not looking good in Europe either. If Ukraine is not to capitulate next year, it will need new ammunition and weapons. An overview.

For Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi, this could be the most important visit to the USA since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian army's offensive has failed and the stocks of ammunition and weapons from the West are almost exhausted. Selensky therefore arrived in Washington on Monday for a meeting with President Joe Biden and Congress to discuss the Ukrainian military leadership's further course of action and Western support.

The visit is urgently needed. Representatives of the US government and Ukrainian officers agree that Ukraine could lose the war without a new strategy and additional resources. Opinions differ as to what the strategy should look like: while the USA is insisting on a restrained strategy that focuses on the Ukrainians digging in to build up supplies and armed forces for the coming year, the Ukrainians want to go on the attack again.

According to a report in theNew York Times, there are some in the US military who want Ukraine to pursue a "hold and build" strategy. Kiev should focus on holding territory and expanding its own weapons production capability in 2024. However, this strategy is unlikely to work out for Ukraine in the long term. Such a war of attrition, in which neither side makes any territorial gains but has to accept high losses among the soldiers and in terms of ammunition, will ultimately only benefit Russia.

In addition to its own large-scale production of ammunition, Russia receives help from North Korea and Iran. Despite complaints about quality deficiencies in the delivery of one million artillery shells from North Korea, Russia has been making up for quality with quantity since the start of the war. Every day, Russian troops use around 16,000 to 20,000 rounds of artillery shells, which they fire at Ukrainian troops.

On the Ukrainian side, the figures are significantly lower: they fire between 4,000 and 8,000 artillery shells per day. In contrast to Russia, Ukraine has to use its ammunition sparingly. Instead of the promised one million rounds of ammunition from the West, Ukraine has so far only received just under 300,000. Assuming an average of 5,000 units per day, the available contingent will last for a maximum of two months.

Due to the Russian superiority in terms of both ammunition and the number of soldiers, Ukraine's goal must be to consistently interrupt the Russian supply lines or cut them off completely. This is the only way to achieve a lasting effect on the front, says Colonel Markus Reisner to ntv.de. "It is always better to attack in depth and hit the logistics hubs or command structures." In addition to ammunition from the West, Ukraine therefore needs a range of weapons to be able to withstand the Russian attacks over the next year. An overview:

1. air defense

The biggest problem that Ukraine has had to contend with from the outset is a functioning air force. Due to the first lack of and then hesitant commitment and delivery of F-16s and other fighter jets, Russia has largely had air sovereignty in eastern Ukraine until now. This leads to several problems at once.

Together with air defense systems, fighter jets are needed to protect the entire country. "Only then will Ukraine be able to ramp up the military production it needs to supply the troops on the front line," says Reisner. Now, in winter, Ukraine primarily needs air defense systems to defend itself against the expected Russian attacks with Iranian drones and cruise missiles. And if Kiev wants to launch a new offensive next year, this will only be possible if Ukraine gains air sovereignty in the east.

The first F-16 components are said to have already been delivered, but fighter jets of this type have not yet been deployed. More are to be added at the beginning of next year. A few days ago, it also became known that the Ukrainian military leadership is negotiating with Sweden for the delivery of Gripen jets. The multi-role fighter aircraft from the Swedish manufacturer Saab, which entered service in the mid-1990s, would have the advantage over the F-16s that it is able to operate in demanding conditions: for example, the aircraft can be used in extreme winter weather and can also take off from poor and short runways, such as sections of highway.

2. surface-to-surface missiles

In order to help Ukraine in the short term, the West would have to supply additional ground-to-ground and air-to-ground systems of medium to long range. One example would be the ATACMS produced in the USA, which can be fired from HIMARS systems. Ukraine already received around 20 to 30 of these in the summer, with which spectacular successes were achieved against Russian helicopters, landing sites and airfields. Another example is the previously announced delivery of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs (GLSDB), although this has been delayed until next year.

According to Reisner, the ATACMS would be ideal for hitting Russian command structures and, above all, logistics. This would have a much greater effect than attacking Russian soldiers on the front line. However, no more attacks have been seen since the attacks a few months ago, which suggests that they may have been used up.

3. cruise missile Taurus

Back in May, Ukraine asked the German government to supply the Taurus cruise missile. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not respond to the request from Kiev for five months, then in October the request was rejected.

With a range of 500 kilometers, the Taurus would enable Ukraine to attack Russia at sensitive logistics and junction points such as the Kerch Bridge. The French and British Scalp and Storm Shadow systems already delivered, which can also fly as far as Crimea, are bunker-busting missiles that damaged the bridge but were unable to destroy it completely. Destruction of road or rail networks is essential in order to cut the Russians' supply lines in the long term.

According to the manufacturer, the Taurus is also particularly resistant to jamming attempts in the electromagnetic field. In contrast to Scalp or Storm Shadow, the medium-range missile does not rely on GPS, which makes it insensitive to Russian jamming attacks.

4. drone defense

Ukraine is also struggling with the mass of Russian first-person-view drones. For the Russian troops, this creates a transparent battlefield on which they can detect every movement of the enemy at any time of day or night. This not only means that Ukrainian soldiers can hardly move unnoticed or light a fire in the low temperatures without being exposed to an immediate artillery attack.

Replacing forces, transporting injured soldiers from the front and supplying them with ammunition, food and water also often happens at a cost. The dramatic consequences can be seen at the Krynky bridgehead, where soldiers can no longer cross the Dnipro at night without being noticed, as the kamikaze and first-person view drones are equipped with thermal imaging cameras that detect every movement even in the dark.

To counteract this, Ukraine must disrupt the Russians' electronic field. To do this, jamming systems are used that restrict the electromagnetic spectrum and therefore radio communication. Both sides have used such jammers very successfully in recent months to disrupt communication with each other and restrict drone functions.

One example of such a system is the ReDrone Counter Unmanned Aerial Systems(C-UAS). The system can detect, identify, localize, track and neutralize hostile unmanned aerial systems (UAS) during the day and at night in both urban and rural environments and under various weather conditions.

Minimum requirement for defense

What Ukraine receives and in what quantity is in the hands of the US Congress and President Biden. The question now is whether the US government will find ways to raise funds without parliament, military expert Christian Mölling told Stern magazine. If this does not succeed, we will "run into a gap in the financing of support", according to the research director of the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Mölling does not see any chance that the Europeans will be able to compensate for the loss of American aid. This is not least due to Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who is obstructing joint decisions. Orbán's allies are said to be holding a meeting behind closed doors with Republicans in Washington to press for an end to US military aid for Ukraine, reports the British Guardian.

Russia is already taking advantage of the crumbling support to put Ukraine on the defensive. According to Reisner, the weapons that Ukraine now urgently needs are therefore only the minimum requirements to keep the front line on the defensive. If Ukraine wants to go on the offensive again next year, it will need even more - new main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and artillery, for example. However, Kiev cannot hope for this at the moment. So far, deliveries from the USA and Europe have mainly been enough to survive, but not to win, as the last few months have clearly shown.