War danger in Middle East - What threats does escalation between Israel and Hezbollah entail?
Perhaps this was the mistake that had been feared for months. The rocket attack on Golan with twelve children and teenagers killed could have been the event that triggered a new, open war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. US diplomats are working urgently to stabilize the situation. In Lebanon, the waiting has begun again - for Israel's counter-attack, possibly in the vicinity of the capital Beirut, and the waiting for Hezbollah's reaction.
It is assumed that Israel, after the most devastating attack since the fighting with Hezbollah began on October 8 of last year, will respond harshly. At the same time, both sides seem to be uninterested in significantly expanding their ten-month-long hard-fought battles. On the Lebanese side, more than 100 civilians were killed, as well as 360 Hezbollah members. On Israel's side, approximately 20 soldiers and more than 20 civilians were killed. 150,000 people on both sides of the border had already been forced to leave their homes.
USA in "permanent discussions"
The balance is now to leave the retaliatory strike approved by the Israeli Security Cabinet below the threshold of a real, large war. Washington is working behind the scenes to calm things down. A spokeswoman for the National Security Council of the USA said, "The attack on Golan was Hezbollah's rocket, fired from an area under their control." The militia has denied any responsibility.
Signs are growing that Hezbollah may have accidentally hit the Druze-populated town of Majdal Shams. "The assumption of a misfired rocket is much more credible than Hezbollah deciding to attack a soccer field," says Eli Hanna, a Lebanese former general, to the newspaper "L'Orient-Le Jour." For the same reason, the militia claimed several other attacks against Israeli military targets in the area on the same day. The Druze in the Golan, many of whom feel closer to Syria than to Israel, are an unusual target for the militia.
Demands for a "limited, but significant" counter-attack
The Druze minority, which mourns the twelve children and teenagers aged 10 to 16, is deeply angry and demanding a harsh response. Israeli representatives told the newspaper "Jediot Achronot" that they expected a "limited, but significant" reaction from Israel. Possible options could be an attack on infrastructure in Lebanon, an important Hezbollah weapons cache, a "iconic place that has not been attacked before," or the killing of high-ranking Hezbollah representatives.
A commentator in the newspaper "Israel Hayom" wrote that the army now faces the dilemma of achieving the desired effect without creating a dangerous dynamic that could escalate the situation into a full-scale war. Such a development could lead to a new conflict with Iran and its allies in the region, including militias in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. This could in turn negatively affect Israel's goals in the Gaza War and efforts to release more than 100 hostages in the Gaza Strip. It is feared that many may already be dead. The already stalled talks on a hostage deal could collapse completely with a new war with Hezbollah.
Attack with clear choreography?
Perhaps it could unfold similarly to what happened in April, when Iran - the main ally of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon - attacked Israel directly for the first time with drones and rockets. This attack followed an alleged Israeli strike on an Iranian consular building in Syria and was significant and symbolic enough for its own audience. However, it followed a clear and calculable choreography, preventing a full-blown conflict in the region.
Their last war between Israel and Hezbollah was in 2006. Israel's army bombed Beirut International Airport and destroyed large parts of the coastal city and the south. Now, around 20 years later, a war for both sides could have more dramatic consequences. Hezbollah has approximately 150,000 rockets, drones, and cruise missiles - about ten times its arsenal compared to 2006. "Every city and every village in Israel is at risk," writes the US think tank Brookings. The militia could also target Israel's power grid.
Israel can afford to react
In the event of an escalation, Hezbollah's other allies could intensify their attacks against Israel, including the Houthis in Yemen, whose drone attack in Tel Aviv marked the first Israeli fatality. Israel responded in Yemen for the first time with direct attacks. The rhetoric with Ankara is also getting sharper, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened to "intervene" in Israel like in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya. Whether Turkey is seriously considering military action against Israel is generally doubted.
The former Israeli military intelligence chief Amos Yadlin wrote that Hezbollah made a grave error with the attack on the Golan. "Inflicting harm on children, especially Druze on the Golan Heights, puts them in a negative light in Lebanon," explained the head of the INSS think tank. "Adding to the anger of many Lebanese that their country is dragging into a war with Israel that is completely irrelevant to them." Against this background, Israel can afford to wait for a reaction. "Time is on our side. It's better to let Hezbollah cook in their own juice."
- The rocket attack, originating from Hezbollah in Lebanon, could potentially escalate the conflict danger between Israel and its adversaries, possibly leading to a larger-scale war.
- The United States of America is engaged in continuous discussions to prevent an escalation, fearing the potential consequences of a full-scale war involving Hezbollah and its allies like Iran.
- The incident in Golan, resulting in the loss of twelve children and teenagers, has sparked demands for a significant retaliation from the Israeli side, but there seems to be a collective unwillingness to significantly expand the ongoing conflicts.
- Hezbollah has been accused of accidentally striking the Druze-populated town of Majdal Shams, leading to speculation that the rocket attack may have been a result of misfired ammunition.
- The potential Israeli response to the rocket attack, while likely to be harsh, is expected to remain below the threshold of a full-blown war, with options including attacks on Lebanese infrastructure, weapons caches, or notable sites.
- The Druze minority, greatly affected by the loss of innocent children, is calling for a strong reaction from Israel, adding pressure for a significant retaliation against Hezbollah.
- In the event of an escalation, Israel's adversaries, such as Hamas in the Palestinian territories and the Houthis in Yemen, may intensify their attacks, potentially leading to a complicated regional conflict involving Syria and Iran as well.
- The Iranian-backed Hezbollah now possesses ten times its arsenal from the 2006 war, raising concerns that any full-scale conflict with Israel could have devastating consequences for both countries, potentially impacting Israel's goals in the Gaza War and hostage release efforts.
- The Israeli military intelligence chief, Amos Yadlin, believes that Hezbollah made a serious error with the attack on the Golan, as it negatively impacts their image in Lebanon, further pushing Israel to wait and let Hezbollah bear the consequences of their actions.
