What the Republicans' failure to provide aid to Ukraine means

US budget dispute - What the Republicans' failure to provide aid to Ukraine means

The fact that the Ukrainians are fighting for freedom on credit is nothing new. But now the "whatever the cost" promises made fervently for almost two years by the majority of Western heads of state are approaching their expiration date.

Kiev is running out of money, conservative Washington is running out of patience. On Wednesday, the Republicans in the Senate rejected a 106 billion dollar aid package, a large part of which was earmarked for Ukraine. Only 49 senators voted in favor, whereas 60 should have done so.

US President Joe Biden found the right-wing's cross-dressing "astonishing" and of course dangerous. The refusal of the conservative senators was a "gift" for Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin. Now, no doesn't always mean no in the US Capitol - at least that's how it used to be. In fact, the conservatives could be softened if they get their way - in other words: a massively stricter border policy.

However, the haggling makes it clear that Ukraine's freedom has long since become a pawn in a new dimension of American power poker.

Billions in support - a bargain

The fact that the Ukrainians have been able to hold out for so long is also due to the billions in aid from their allies. Above all because of the USA, by far the largest donor, which had given almost 77 billion euros to Ukraine by the end of July.

The resistance of the Ukrainians is now increasingly dependent on these funds. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, the latest aid pledged between August and October 2023 fell by almost 90 percent compared to the same period last year. Should the flow of money from Washington dry up, the consequences for Ukraine would be catastrophic. Without fresh money from the USA, the reconquest of the occupied territories would be "impossible". There would then be a "great risk of losing this war", Andriy Yermak, the head of the Kiev presidential office, made clear on Wednesday.

According to Biden, the Republicans are prepared to "literally bring Ukraine to its knees on the battlefield and jeopardize our national security in the process". National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's prognosis this week was also bleak. Now the clock is not ticking equally loudly in everyone's ears: Pentagon officials are contradicting the White House, according to the New York Times. The current credit balance is sufficient to keep Ukraine on fire throughout the winter - the remaining almost five billion dollars would just have to be divided up accordingly.

There is "no magic pot of money to bridge this moment. We are out of money - and almost out of time," said Shalanda Young, Director of the National Budget Office, in an open letter to the Congressional leadership.

Republicans want to swap: Ukraine aid in exchange for tougher border policy

With the ousting of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House of Representatives, the political climate in the USA has finally cracked the two-degree mark. Realpolitik is moving in the direction of betrayal. A concession on Ukraine is still theoretically feasible from a Republican perspective, but practically too expensive for the Democrats. The Conservatives want their nod to be gilded with a blank check on border protection.

Many Democrats also recognize in principle that immigration policy is in need of reform. Accordingly, Biden held out the prospect of a "significant concession" to the stubborn conservatives. His Democratic majority leader in the Senate, Chuck Schumer, had also verbally spread his arms. In the end, however, the almost obsequious willingness to compromise did not help. After all, the demands of the right were so extreme that the Democrats would have had to bend ideologically.

Of course, the Republicans knew that the willingness to talk from the left could not possibly go that far. But now they can say: It wasn't our fault! Of course, the leaders of the Grand Old Party don't want to hear anything about blackmail. On the contrary: the Democrats would apparently "rather allow Russia to trample a sovereign country in Europe than do what is necessary to enforce America's own sovereign borders", said Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Combined friendship - Kiev and Jerusalem in one aid package

"Only" 14 of the 106 billion dollars in the aid package were to go to Israel as support in the fight against Hamas. The fact that friendship with Kiev and Jerusalem is currently only available as a combined package meets with little approval among progressive democrats and those on the far right alike - for different reasons, of course. The right wants to arm Israel without having to fire a single bullet at Kiev, while the left wants to avoid precisely that in view of the thousands of Palestinian victims.

The left-wing veteran Bernie Sanders even voted against the draft, thus joining the right in a roundabout way. Although Sanders is an independent on paper, he generally aligns himself with the Democrats. But Sanders' bigamy is the least of the Democrats' problems.

Hope for New Year's resolutions?

What happens now? It is unlikely that the elephant and the donkey will come to an agreement this year. However, the dispute over money is likely to become even more cerebral in the spring: part of the hard-won transitional budget expires on January 19 and the rest on February 2. Then the evil spectre of a shutdown will once again haunt the Capitol corridors. The fact that this interim solution came together at all was due to the fact that the parties postponed the contentious issue of Ukraine. Ukraine literally cannot afford this again.

But postponed is not canceled. At least that is the hope from the Ukrainian perspective. The fact is: failure to provide assistance is not punishable in the USA. Even the Republicans know that.

New York Times"; " Politico";"Washington Post"; DPA; AFP