What it would mean for Europe if Trump wins

Europe looks anxiously towards the US presidency election in November. Plans for a possible second term of Republican Donald Trump exist in some circles. However, many Europeans are unprepared for this - a situation not least due to Trump himself.

Is Europe safe if Trump wins again?

Trump threatened Europe during the campaign that he would end the NATO mutual defense pact if they didn't contribute enough for defense. Many Europeans consider themselves insufficiently protected without US nuclear weapons and the approximately 100,000 US soldiers stationed in Europe. The Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the EU Parliament, David McAllister, therefore calls for Europe to become "defense-ready." "Not because the EU should go to war, but rather to deter our potential attackers," McAllister said.

How will that work?

The EU Commission, under Ursula von der Leyen, has proposed that EU members significantly increase their joint procurement of military equipment. The share should rise from the current 18% to 60% by 2035. The EU spends three times as much on defense as Russia, but many systems are not compatible.

McAllister also demands that in the next long-term EU budget after 2028, significantly more money be allocated for defense. Currently, 1.5 billion euros are planned. The Greens and many Social Democrats and Liberals in the EU Parliament oppose a billion-euro fund financed by EU community debt. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as well as German Union parties and the FDP, also reject this.

How does it look for Ukraine aid?

Trump threatened to withdraw military aid for Ukraine in the event of a victory. Therefore, a relief package of 50 billion US dollars is being prepared at the level of the seven major industrialized countries (G7). It should be financed from the interest on frozen Russian assets. To make the aid "Trump-proof," discussions are being held about a kind of commitment mechanism that theoretically would also bind Republicans.

Currently, the Trump-friendly Hungarian government is blocking 6.5 billion euros in aid for military support for Kiev. The NATO had decided on aid of 40 billion euros at its summit in Washington in early July, but critics argue that it contains little fresh money for Kiev.

What does Trump mean for trade policy?

Trump could also hit Europe hard in foreign trade, as he follows the "America first" principle. "Trump has threatened to build a protective wall around the US," explains the managing director of the Institute of the German Economy (IW), Hubertus Bardt. In his first term, the Republican had already imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from abroad, as well as on cheese, wine, or butter from EU countries.

According to Bardt's assessment, the EU must develop clear counterpositions to react to such tariff threats. The EU and the US are each other's largest trading partners, with a volume of almost 870 billion euros in trade in 2022.

How is it with direct contacts to Trump?

So far, only Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has had direct contacts. He met Trump in mid-July at Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate in the US state of Florida and justified this with his own so-called "peace mission" in the Ukraine conflict, which Orban had previously led to Moscow. All EU partners except Slovakia sharply criticized this.

McAllister accuses Orban of undermining the interests and values of the EU. However, he advocates for the institutionalization of relations with various transatlantic actors. Politicians from Germany and other member states are already maintaining contacts with Republicans in the Congress and even some think tanks in Trump's circle.

How predictable is Trump really?

Diplomats from the EU and NATO refer to the unpredictability of the former president. However, many see him as a "Deal-Maker" and hope to do business politically with him if he wins the election.

Despite the concerns in Europe about a potential second term for Donald Trump, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has already had direct meetings with him, justifying it as a peace mission in the Ukraine conflict.
If Trump wins again, Europe may face trade conflicts, as he follows the "America first" principle and has previously imposed tariffs on various goods from EU countries, such as steel, aluminum, cheese, wine, and butter.
In response to these potential trade threats, the EU must develop clear counterpositions, as conflicts with the US would significantly impact their trade relationship, with a volume of nearly 870 billion euros in trade in 2022.