New parliamentary elections - What happens after the elections in France?
Events at the French parliamentary elections have taken an unexpected turn. The left bloc surprises with its win. The Right-nationalists are gathering forces but have no chance of forming their own government. And the Prime Minister announces his intention to resign. As for what happens next in France:
Will the Left Bloc come to power now?
At least that's what the heads of the Nouveau Front Populaire coalition, the strongest force in the National Assembly, are demanding. As President, it is Emmanuel Macron who decides on appointing the Prime Minister. However, it is still unclear whether he will accept the resignation request from Prime Minister Gabriel Attal. It is also uncertain whether Macron, in the event of accepting the resignation, will entrust him with government formation.
Despite their surprising success, the Left remain far from an absolute majority. Other factions could therefore not only bring down a left-wing government through a vote of no confidence. The past two years, during which Macron's camp had only a relative majority in the parliamentary chamber, have shown how difficult it is to govern in France without an absolute majority. It remains unclear whether this would be easier for the Left, especially since they may have significantly fewer seats than Macron's Center forces after the dissolution of the National Assembly a few weeks ago.
Theoretically, a coalition between the Left and the Center is also possible. However, clear rejections of such an alliance have already come from within the Left Bloc.
What is the timeline for government formation?
There are no clear guidelines for this. Macron could wait until the appointment of a Prime Minister with the new parliament. However, the newly elected parliament meets for its first session on July 18. During this session, the Parliament President or President is elected. The following day, decisions are made on Vice Presidents and the composition of committees.
What happens if no government is found?
If none of the political parties receive an absolute majority or are unable to form a government in coalition or with the consent of others, Macron can ask Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, despite his resignation announcement, to continue working in the current government in a caretaker capacity. This transition period could last several weeks, taking into account the Olympic Games, which start in Paris on July 26, and the political summer break. Macron could then form a government made up of experts, high-ranking civil servants, and economists. Dissolution of the parliament and new elections are only possible after a year.
What are the consequences for Germany and Europe?
It's not clear. The Left Bloc has so far kept the leadership question open and has no common program. Therefore, it is still undecided which policy it will implement if it comes to power. However, it is clear that the coalition is consistently pro-European and also committed to supporting Ukraine against the Russian aggression war.
With political stalemate in France, Berlin and Brussels could no longer rely on France as a strong partner. The country would be more focused on managing than initiating new projects.
Do Le Pen's Right-nationalists still benefit from the election result?
Despite the Rassemblement National not becoming as strong as predicted and even ending up behind the Presidential bloc, Marine Le Pen's party recorded significant gains in the National Assembly. It is more represented there than ever before. This growth increases the influence of the party in parliamentary work and allows it to receive more funding, enabling it to prepare for the 2027 presidential election and the next parliamentary election at the latest.
What about Macron?
Whether Macron can save anything of his initial claim as France's reformer and defender of a strong Europe remains to be seen in the coming days and weeks. If he manages to establish a long-term governing majority with the participation of his government coalition against the overwhelming expectation, he might come out of it with a black eye. However, given that it failed to forge a coalition in the past two years under much clearer power relations, Macron's remaining term in office is likely to consist more of managing unstable relationships and stalemate in France, both domestically and internationally. Although the right-wing nationalists were prevented from winning the parliamentary election, Macron has caused more harm to himself and his legacy through the new election.
- Despite the Left Bloc's victory, Gabriel Attal's Left-wing alliance remains short of an absolute majority in Parliament.
- Emmanuel Macron, as President, has the power to appoint a Prime Minister from the Left Bloc, should he accept the resignation of Gabriel Attal.
- The Right-wing nationalists, led by Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, had a stronger presence in the Parliament than anticipated, which could increase their influence and potential for future elections.
- If no coalition government is formed or an absolute majority is not achieved, Emmanuel Macron may ask Gabriel Attal to continue serving as Prime Minister in a caretaker capacity until new elections can be held.
- The outcome of the parliamentary election and its consequences for government formation in France may impact the relationship between France, Germany, and Europe, potentially affecting the momentum of various projects and initiatives.
