What happens after the ceasefire - and afterwards?
With the ceasefire in the Gaza war, Israel and the Islamist Hamas have each achieved important goals for themselves: the release of dozens of Israeli hostages and the release of more than 200 Palestinian prisoners. In turn, the suffering population in the Gaza Strip is receiving significantly more aid than before. But it remains unclear what will happen next. Questions and answers on the ceasefire:
What are the chances of the ceasefire being extended beyond Friday?
The mediators Qatar and Egypt are trying to extend the ceasefire again. In principle, Israel and Hamas agreed the week before last on a maximum timeframe for the ceasefire of ten days. This timeframe ends on Monday morning. The Israeli government's security adviser, Mark Regev, told CNN that if Hamas releases ten Israeli hostages, the ceasefire will be extended by one day at a time. Israel insists that these are live hostages. The question is whether Hamas will meet this demand.
According to Israeli media reports, Hamas presented a list of eight live hostages on Thursday morning shortly before the deadline expired. Negotiations were also underway regarding the release of three bodies. The US government announced on Monday that it assumed that not all hostages were in the hands of Hamas. The broadcaster CNN reported from unnamed diplomatic sources that there were an estimated 40 hostages.
How many Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners have been exchanged so far?
By midday on Thursday, 97 hostages abducted by Hamas in the Gaza Strip had been exchanged for 210 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails. Among the released hostages are 73 Israelis - including 14 with German citizenship - as well as 23 people from Thailand and one person from the Philippines. The Palestinian prisoners are women and minors, the youngest being 14 years old. They were accused of throwing firebombs, arson and knife attacks, among other things.
How many hostages are still in the Gaza Strip?
According to the "Times of Israel", Israel suspects that around 145 hostages - including 15 women and children - are still in the Gaza Strip. According to earlier figures, there should also be around six hostages with German passports. According to Foreign Office spokesman Madschid Al-Ansari on Tuesday, mediator Qatar cannot confirm the exact number of remaining hostages. According to Israeli sources, around 240 hostages had originally been abducted.
What is known about the conditions under which the hostages were held?
Relatives of hostages have reported in Israeli and international media that their family members were not mistreated in captivity. However, there were days without food. Sometimes the abductees had to wait an hour and a half before they were allowed to go to the toilet. On some days, they were only given flat bread or a small portion of rice. They slept on benches or pushed-together chairs. A relative of a released twelve-year-old reported that children had been threatened at gunpoint to keep them quiet. After his release, the boy reported that he had been forced to watch videos of the terrorist attack on Israel on October 7. He was also forced to spend the first 16 days of his hostage situation alone in a locked room.
What about the male hostages and the soldiers?
So far there have been no announcements about a hostage agreement for the male hostages and the soldiers. It can be assumed that Hamas will make significantly higher demands, especially for the soldiers, than for women and children. There is already speculation in the Israeli media that the army could try to free the soldiers by force in the end. According to radio reports, around ten soldiers were abducted from their military bases on October 7.
Israel has already had bitter experiences with the exchange of abducted soldiers in the past: in 2011, Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit, who was abducted in 2006 and held captive by Hamas for several years, was released in exchange for more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. The current head of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Jihia al-Sinwar, was also released.
Can Palestinians now move freely in the Gaza Strip?
No. Israel has effectively divided the Gaza Strip in two with its ground offensive in the north. Shortly after the ceasefire began, soldiers were deployed to prevent displaced Palestinians from the south of the Gaza Strip from reaching their former homes in the north to inspect them or check on relatives. According to information from Hamas circles, two people were killed by gunfire in the central area of the Gaza Strip and others were injured when they tried to reach the north. In the southern part, however, there was largely freedom of movement.
What does the ceasefire mean for the civilian population in the Gaza Strip?
The suffering people in Gaza are completely demoralized after around seven weeks of war. Aid workers speak of a dramatic humanitarian crisis. According to UN figures, around 1.8 million people - around three quarters of the population - are now internally displaced. There is a shortage of pretty much everything: food, water and medicines are in very short supply, as are the opportunities for medical treatment. According to the Hamas authorities, almost 15,000 people have been killed and more than 36,000 injured as a result of the massive Israeli airstrikes and the ground offensive in the northern part of the city. The figures cannot currently be independently verified, but are considered generally credible by the UN and diplomats. According to the Palestinian Red Crescent, 1132 trucks carrying aid supplies had arrived in the sealed-off coastal strip by Wednesday since the start of the ceasefire.
How great is the extent of the destruction in the Gaza Strip?
Enormous, that much is certain, as countless photos from the war zone show. Thomas White, UNRWA Director for Gaza, described the city of Gaza as a "ghost town", all streets are deserted and the extent of destruction is enormous. According to US researchers, between 67,000 and 88,000 buildings have been damaged since the start of the war. This is the result of an analysis by the Decentralized Damage Mapping Group (DDMG), in which a group of US scientists examined the attacks in the coastal area using satellite data. According to the analysis, 50 to 60 percent of the buildings in the northern Gaza Strip were damaged.
Could the ceasefire lead to an end to the war?
It doesn't look like it at the moment. Israel has made it very clear that it sees the ceasefire as just that - a pause. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly emphasizes that the war will continue until Israel has achieved all its goals. This includes the elimination of Hamas and the return of all hostages. In addition, Gaza must no longer pose a threat to Israel. Netanyahu recently announced on Wednesday that fighting would resume once "this phase of the return of our hostages is complete".
Hamas, on the other hand, ultimately wants to establish an Islamic state on the territory of the entire historical Palestine. It wants to destroy the state of Israel. A spokesman for the terrorist organization has also threatened to repeat the massacres of 7 October. The USA and Germany have so far supported Israel's rejection of a long-term ceasefire.
What is the biggest international concern if the war continues?
That the number of civilian casualties will rise dramatically once again. According to UN figures, there are around 1.8 million internally displaced people, many of whom are living in overcrowded emergency shelters in the south of the coastal region. The World Health Organization has already warned of the massive spread of disease, which could ultimately claim more lives than the fighting. If the Israeli army continues its attacks on Hamas targets as announced and then intensifies its targeting of the south, it is questionable how the population can be protected. It is also unclear how it will even be possible to supply the people in need with humanitarian goods.
What is Israel's long-term plan for the Gaza Strip?
That is unclear. Prime Minister Netanyahu has said that Israel must continue to play a role in securing the area even after a victory over Hamas. At the same time, the USA, arguably Israel's most important ally, is expressly warning against a renewed occupation of the Gaza Strip. The US government wants the Palestinian Authority to be responsible for the Gaza Strip as well as the West Bank in future. The long-term hope is a two-state solution, i.e. a peaceful coexistence of Israel and a Palestinian state - which currently seems unrealistic.
Despite the ceasefire in the Middle East's Gaza war, the likelihood of conflicts between Israel and Hamas remains. The release of hostages and prisoners has eased tensions in the Gaza Strip temporarily, but the future remains uncertain. The suffering population is receiving more aid, but the situation in the war-torn region is far from resolved, with many hostages still unaccounted for and the potential for renewed conflicts looming.
Source: www.dpa.com
