Macron disbands parliament. - What are the possible outcomes of fresh French elections?
What occurs if Macron loses the parliamentary elections?
In the current state, Macron's governance alliance, Renaissance, has 169 deputies, which is the largest faction in the National Assembly with 577 seats. Marine Le Pen's right-wing party, Rassemblement National (RN), holds 88 seats, designating it as the primary opposition party.
The prominent display of right-wing parties in the European elections illustrates the disdain of voters toward the government's actions on topics like immigration, crime, and escalating living costs. If the RN managed to attain a majority in parliament, Macron would be required to appoint an individual from their ranks as the prime minister. This person would then determine the ministers.
This would precipitate a "cohabitation," where the president and the prime minister belong to different parties. "We are prepared to seize power if the French grant us their trust at the impending parliamentary elections," Le Pen said at a gathering.
What ensues in a "cohabitation"?
In this setup, the president would retain his role as the head of defense and foreign policy, as per the constitution's acceptance that he oversees international treaties. However, he would lose control over domestic policy - ranging from monetary policy to internal security.
This event occurred most recently in 1997, when the conservative president Jacques Chirac dissolved parliament. He assumed he could secure a stronger majority but was resoundingly defeated by a left-wing coalition led by socialist Lionel Jospin. Jospin assumed the position of prime minister for five years and introduced, for instance, the 35-hour workweek.
Since the instatement of the Fifth Republic in 1958, France has encountered three cohabitation periods.
What would a cohabitation with Le Pen's party entail?
Lebanese-born Jordan Bardella, Le Pen's 28-year-old protégé and RN chairman, has been touted as a possible prime minister if Le Pen assumes the presidency by 2027.
With a majority in parliament, the Right could actualize their domestic program. For example, in their 2022 election manifesto, Le Pen called for facilitating access to affordable housing for French residents, processing asylum applications abroad, and abolishing inheritance tax for middle-class families and those with limited incomes.
In foreign policy, the president would maintain leadership, but the government would have some decision-making power on partnerships. This could cause conflict, with instances of tension between Chirac and Jospin, as they frequently competed for influence at EU events.
A cohabitation between a strong proponent of Europe like Macron and a nationally-minded, E.U.-skeptic party, such as the National Rally, would be unexplored terrain.
Read also:
If Macron loses the parliamentary elections, he would be required to appoint an individual from Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) as the prime minister, leading to a "cohabitation" where Macron would lose control over domestic policy. If Le Pen's party obtains a majority in parliament, they could implement policies such as facilitating affordable housing, processing asylum applications abroad, and abolishing inheritance tax for middle-income families, as outlined in their 2022 election manifesto.
