Assault on Trump - We are more than just hoping for Biden's chances to win
The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump has immediate consequences for the White House race. With Joe Biden recently intensifying his attacks on Trump, the Democratic campaign team put their re-election campaign on hold due to the assassination.
The pause will not be of long duration. On this Monday evening (local time), Biden is scheduled to give an interview to NBC, which had been planned before the shootings on Trump. However, while the interview was originally intended to focus primarily on doubts about Trump's fitness for office, the events in the small town of Butler, Pennsylvania, could now take center stage.
During the interview, it is expected that questions will arise about how Biden will react to the attack in the further course of the campaign and what the Democrats expect in terms of effects on the electorate. Numerous strategists, advisors, and analysts of the Democratic Party have already given predictions about this – and they are surprisingly diverse.
Biden's chances of winning have significantly decreased
- "We are something of an ass", said a long-time insider of the Democrats and noted that the image of Trump with a bloodied face raising his fist in the air would be indelible.
- "The presidential campaign is over for the Democrats", assessed a party advisor. Now they had to focus on holding the majority in the Senate and winning the House of Representatives. "The only positive thing the last night brought for the Democrats is that we no longer have to talk about Joe Biden's age."
- A Democrat strategist who had worked on several campaigns remarked that Biden could no longer use his main argument against the Republican: convincing voters that Trump was so extreme that he posed a threat to democracy. "This message is dead", so the strategist. The bullet that hit Trump "probably saved Biden's nomination", as it froze the demands for his withdrawal, and "sealed his re-election campaign's doom".
- "The unequivocal effect of this attack is that it officially propels Trump into martyrdom", observed a veteran of Democratic campaigns. "They frame this as an attack on MAGA (the "Make America Great Again" movement, Anm.d.Red.) and not on Trump – that's more powerful. This is literally biblical evidence, about which we are speaking here." The Democrats "could never compete with this level of enthusiasm among the base voters", explained the veteran. "So yes, we are still more up the creek with Biden. And relying on the fact that Trump is a disruptive, unifying enemy will also not work."
- Mike Murphy, long-time Republican strategist who rejects Trump, predicted for the Republican nomination congress beginning on this Monday: "The raised fist will become an iconic symbol of the party convention." Trump would likely experience a resurgence in the next polls, and attract more independent voters. "There will be a strong, old-fashioned American sentiment for Trump."
- "Strong and wrong beats weak and right", reminded a Democrat strategist in reference to Trump's and Biden's public appearances of a famous quote from former US President Bill Clinton.
- "The attempted assassination solidifies Trump's lead", mused Hank Sheinkopf, an experienced advisor to the Democrats. "That's the problem Biden has. How can you compare yourself to a martyr? That's the way the Republicans will portray Trump."
- "Trump is already leading. The argument that we need to change things should now be stronger", said Aaron Regunberg, a member of Pass the Torch, a Democratic group that wants to persuade Biden to give up his re-election bid.
- Opinion researcher and former advisor to Barack Obama, Cornell Belcher, expects no major shifts among key voters in the crucial states. "Will the suburban mother worried about how to pay for her daughter's college and whether her daughter will have as many rights as she had in her own life – will she say after the shooting: 'Oh my God! I will vote for Trump!'? No!"
- A Biden supporter speculated that the failed assassination attempt would strengthen Trump's base without bringing him new voters. Moreover, Biden demonstrated consistent leadership in chaotic times.
- A seasoned worker for the Democrats predicted that there would be a "light immediate push" for Trump among certain demographic groups. "But fundamentally, I think the race will remain where it has always been. And we have a lot of time left, as crazy as that may seem."
Biden could benefit from the Trump shooting
- At first, it seemed to me that the shots would help Trump, but then I changed my mind, a long-time Democratic strategist explained. "Politically speaking, the idea that it will help Trump is a mistake. I think it reminds us that he is a chaos creator", the strategist said. "Exactly then we need someone who brings us together." He believed that the Republicans were taking a political risk if they repeated Trump's calls for retaliation at the party convention instead of toning down their rhetoric.
- Another strategist believes it's beneficial for Biden in the short term to be seen as calming the American public and temporarily setting aside the campaign and differences with Trump. "It helps Biden's arguments. He stands for stability. He manages a crisis. And in a way, he answers the debate over his mental acuity. And that creates a contrast to Trump."
- And Rob Casey, political advisor at the Signum Global Advisers strategy firm, observes: "The silver lining for Biden in this case is that we no longer talk about his age, his sharpness, and the possibility of his withdrawal."
- Despite the attempt on Donald Trump's life, a long-time Democrat strategist believes that it's a political mistake to think it will help him, as it underscores his role as a chaos creator.
- Another strategist sees benefit for Joe Biden in the short term, as he can be perceived as calming the public and setting aside campaign differences during this crisis, emphasizing his capability to manage crises and stability.
- Rob Casey, a political advisor at the Signum Global Advisers strategy firm,notes that the failed assassination attempt shifts the focus away from discussions about Biden's age, sharpness, and potential withdrawal.
- Mike Murphy, a long-time Republican strategist who rejects Trump, expects that the Trump supporters will see the raised fist as an iconic symbol of the party convention and that Trump will experience a resurgence in the next polls, attracting more independent voters.
- A seasoned worker for the Democrats predicts a "light immediate push" for Trump among certain demographic groups, but believes that the race will remain where it has always been, given the ample time left in the campaign.
