Walz's and Vance's previous debates might uncover insights about the intense competition scheduled for Tuesday.
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It's an unusual turn of events for Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance, whose selections over the summer placed them under intense political scrutiny. Walz was once a relatively unknown Democratic governor and former six-term congressman who unexpectedly emerged as a possible running mate for Vice President Harris. On the other hand, Vance, a first-term senator who had barely turned 40 and served less than two years in office, was chosen by Trump for the Republican ticket during the July Republican National Convention.
An examination of historical general election and primary debates for Vance and Walz reveals distinct approaches to their public performances that could be indicative for the high-stakes nature of this situation.
The potential Walz-Vance debate could be the final one of the 2024 election, a unique scenario in modern presidential campaigns, as Trump has refused numerous calls from Harris to agree to a second debate, including one suggested by CNN for October 23 in Atlanta. With only a few states having begun early voting and the race remarkably tight, the running mates' confrontation on Tuesday in New York presents one of the last significant chances to promote their respective tickets.
Democratic strategist Rebecca Pearcy expressed that the candidates are both being moved from obscurity to a national stage almost instantaneously to introduce themselves and act as the closing act for their parties as no more presidential debates are scheduled.
Walz has influenced politics for almost two decades, with debates starting from his second House reelection campaign in 2010 to his 2022 gubernatorial reelection. Conversely, Vance, while being a first-time candidate in the 2022 Senate election, has only participated in two general election debates and a handful of GOP primary debates and forums.
Both Vance and Walz, both hailing from the Midwest, share certain resemblances. Previous debate footage reveals that they frequently avoid personal attacks and tend to opt for lofty rhetoric instead of focusing on specific facts to strengthen policy credibility. Their opponents from past debates claimed that they don't always provide direct answers to questions.
In the past, Vance has publicly acknowledged his early criticism of Trump but has also maintained that his past opposition was not disqualifying and that his support for the former president is unwavering. During the formative years of the Affordable Care Act, despite lacking public support, Walz firmly defended his vote for the bill, even when it went against his reputation as a political moderate.
While they share similarities, there are limits to their comparisons, say more than a dozen Republicans and Democrats, including those who have worked with Vance or Walz in previous campaigns or who have faced either of the vice-presidential candidates on the debate stage.
Vance has less debate experience
Compared to Walz, Vance has less debate experience but has gained significantly more national attention. Coming onto the political scene by publishing a New York Times bestseller in 2016, Vance won a highly contested Senate primary in 2022 with Trump's endorsement and successfully retained the seat in a difficult race against a strong Democratic competitor.
However, Vance's debate experience is limited to two general election debates against Democratic former Rep. Tim Ryan and a set of primary forums and debates.
In both the primary and general election debates, Vance often focused on the policy areas he was most comfortable with: immigration, the economy, and drug control. He frequently deviated from the moderators' questions or topics and instead delved into his favored policy areas: immigration, public safety, and the economy.
During his second debate against Ryan, when asked about his stance on allowing a 10-year-old rape victim to get an abortion, Vance initially asserted his opposition to abortion in most cases before transitioning to immigration, highlighting the rapist being an undocumented immigrant.
“My stance on this issue is to protect life in this country, which differs significantly from Ryan's viewpoint. In this specific case, I believe that the young girl should be able to get an abortion in this state. I believe there is an obvious exceptional circumstance that applies there – it's extremely risky for a young girl to carry a baby to full term in such a situation,” Vance said before attributing the incident to Ryan's failure in addressing border security.
When assessing Vance's debate performance, Ryan commended his sharpness but pointed out that he can be thrown off his game.
“Vance is intelligent, but he's quite sensitive with thin skin," Ryan told CNN in an interview. "Walz can make you question whether he's made a comment without even realizing it, and Walz does so subtly."
Those who have participated in debates with Vance also pointed out his agility.
“Everyone else tends to stick to a single narrative for their responses, but Vance demonstrates the capacity to assess questions as they’re presented and produce a genuine response," said Ohio Republican Michael Gibbons, who competed against Vance in the 2022 Senate primary. "In my observation, 99% of the time, his answers are honest."
Vance's allies and Trump campaign officials suggest that his numerous TV appearances during his 2024 campaign have helped sharpen his debating skills. According to those interviewed and evidence from his past debates, Vance, a Yale Law School graduate, appears to enjoy engaging in verbal sparring matches.
“Vance enjoys debating," said a longtime adviser.
Critics from past discussions claim that the Ohio senator can sometimes be unclear on topics like abortion, which he's attempted to clarify by acknowledging his stance while allowing for flexibility. At times, Vance has connected immigration policies to drug issues, specifically the fight against the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. During his debut debate with Ryan, he shared his personal experience with his mother's addiction battle, tying it to illegal immigration.
Responding to a query about immigration contributions to America, Vance stated, "My mom struggled with addiction for a big portion of my childhood. One of the blessings for our family is, we got another chance with Mom because the harmful substance entering the country 15 years ago wasn't as lethal as it is today."
Conversing with Ryan, Vance occasionally shifted the focus to criticizing his opponent instead of discussing his views directly. In their second debate, for instance, when asked about police accountability improvement strategies, Vance initially mentioned supporting specific measures before attacking Ryan for supposedly aiming to eliminate police immunity. He argued that this was the root cause of the current violence prevalent in cities, alluding to protests sparked by George Floyd's death.
"The predicament we faced following 2020 was that we were overly concerned about rare problematic officers. As a consequence, we subjected our law enforcement to severe government intervention, resulting in streets that people no longer feel secure to traverse, not just in Youngstown but across the nation," Vance stated.
Walz has confronted numerous debates
Despite having less experience as a debater compared to most vice presidential nominee contenders, Walz has participated in multiple onstage discussions for congressional and gubernatorial races.
Those who debated with him and prepared him say that the Walz on stage for this campaign is remarkably similar to the man who debated in congressional discussions and state forums.
Like Vance, Walz avoided personal attacks or name-calling in previous debates but showed an eagerness to challenge his opponents' policy stands and past statements. During a 2018 gubernatorial debate, for example, Johnson attempted to provoke Walz by calling him the "greatest feel-good candidate I've ever seen," prompting an immediate response from Walz. Later in the debate, while picking on Johnsons' stance on taxes, the Republican said, "You don't grasp taxes very well." Walz continued his criticism of Johnsons' tax policy with no delay.
Walz's Republican opponents critiqued his responses as frequently lacking details and rich in charm.
"He presented himself as a moderate and always claimed to be pro-Second Amendment. Of course, that shifted when he ran for governor," Quist, who lost to Walz in 2012, recounted. Quist conveyed how, despite his attacks on Walz's numerous spending bills, it was challenging to deal a severe blow due to the appeal Walz had established.
Walz has also been known to speak quickly in debates and, unlike Vance, often made hand gestures or facial expressions while his opponent spoke.
As a congressman representing one of Minnesota's most moderate and rural districts for six terms, Walz frequently defended himself against accusations about his Obamacare support or being left of his district's political stance by emphasizing his collaboration with Republicans. He even referenced his invitation to Sen. McCain's funeral during a debate to highlight his bipartisan credentials.
As governor, Walz has encountered criticism for being deemed a radical and faced attacks on contentious issues like his handling of riots following Floyd's death or his backing of Obamacare or Minnesota's immigration laws.
"The murder of George Floyd shocked not just Minnesota but the entire nation and the world," Walz said during a debate against Jensen in 2022. Walz emphasized the alliance between departments in the state, region, and National Guard to manage the situation. "This event will be remembered for a long time. I'm proud of Minnesota's response. I'm proud of Minnesota's first responders who were present. ... What I can assure you is that, following Chauvin's trial and Wright's murder, there have been instances where the potential for this to occur existed. It did not due to the lessons learned and the capability to mobilize that response."
Democrats who have worked with Walz in past campaigns described him as difficult to trip up in debate settings.
"In all of his congressional debates and all of his gubernatorial contests, he is well-versed in policy and doesn't waver in his stance. He's not afraid to throw a punch in a 'Minnesota nice' way," a former Walz consultant stated. "The thing about him is he doesn't get defensive. He knows where he stands, and he's comfortable in his own skin, ready for anything."
More exhilarating than Kaine vs. Pence
Both democratic and republican strategists, including those associated with Vance and Walz, agreed that debates between vice presidential nominees seldom significantly impact the election outcome. Instead, the primary objective is often to avoid harm or, in the worst-case scenario, limit damage from previous debates between the presidential nominees.
"The folks linked to Walz and Vance, both their allies and strategists, are predicting a unique scenario this time around. They reasoning is based on the fact that these two are still fresh faces in the national limelight, and their inclusion on the Democratic and Republican tickets has garnered an excessive amount of attention.
"I'm anticipating an intriguing debate," shared a seasoned advisor of Vance. "To be frank, I don't believe candidates' VP picks significantly impact a voter's decision. But undeniably, this debate is likely to attract more media coverage than a conventional match-up like Kaine versus Pence, who, let's face it, are as thrilling as a cup of lukewarm coffee."
Despite their participation in numerous debates, forums, and interviews, neither Walz nor Vance has previously sparred as a No. 2. In this regard, this debate serves as an unprecedented challenge for both of them, necessitating them to defend their tickets' platforms."
The potential Walz-Vance debate could be a significant opportunity for both candidates to promote their respective tickets, given that it might be the last high-profile event before the election and Trump has refused further debates.
Compared to Walz, who has a wealth of debate experience from his congressional and gubernatorial campaigns, Vance has limited debate experience but has gained substantial national attention through his debut in the Senate.
