Wagenknecht makes coalitions in Ukraine policy-dependent
Sahra Wagenknecht is against arms deliveries to Ukraine and in favor of immediate negotiations of the attacked country with Russia. Anyone who wants to coalition with her party for the upcoming state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg must share this stance. "We will only participate in a state government that also takes a clear federal political position for diplomacy and against war preparations", said the chairwoman of the Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht. Since it is clear that "a new arms race will consume billions that are urgently needed for schools, hospitals, housing and higher pensions".
BSW Party founder Sahra Wagenknecht makes coalitions in Eastern Germany dependent on the stance of their partners regarding the war in Ukraine. "We will only join a state government that also takes a clear federal political position for diplomacy and against war preparations", said the chairwoman of The Left. Because it is clear that "a new arms race will consume billions that are urgently needed for schools, hospitals, housing and higher pensions".
New state parliaments will be elected in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September. The Wagenknecht Party BSW is focusing on education and migration, but also on the peace issue - and finds resonance in the three states with opinion poll ratings of 15 to 20 percent. The AfD is also addressing this topic. Both parties are against arms deliveries to Ukraine and in favor of immediate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
"The peace issue is very important", said Wagenknecht. "Many people are rightfully concerned because the Federal Government is making our country more and more into a war party in the Ukraine conflict and has so far missed every attempt at diplomatic solutions." She also criticized the announcement of stationing US American rockets in Germany in 2026. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz justified this as a reaction to a growing Russian threat.
Strategically clever
According to the annual Allensbach Security Report, 76 percent of those surveyed in the East fear that Germany could be drawn into a military conflict. In the West, this fear is only 44 percent. Russia is seen as a major threat to peace by 75 percent of those surveyed nationwide - in the East, this is only 53 percent.
Conversely, the view of the United States: 40 percent of those surveyed in the East consider the United States to be a particularly great danger, nationwide only 24 percent. Politologist Oliver Lembcke, who promotes in Jena and teaches in Bochum, says that there have been differences in the Russian image of the Germans in East and West before the Ukraine conflict. These differences were not particularly large. "With the aggressive war, the gap widens," Lembcke says. "The attitudes are now sharper in contrast to those of West Germans." In addition, there is more uncertainty in Eastern Germany. "And now come two parties that fan these differences and this feeling of insecurity," Lembcke says. Strategically, this is clever.
War anxiety stems from the Cold War
Historian Katja Hoyer, who comes from Guben in Brandenburg and now lives in Great Britain, says: "War anxiety plays a greater role in my opinion in the East than anti-Americanism or a pro-Russian stance," says the historian Hoyer. She sees the roots in the Cold War. "Many East Germans grew up with the notion that the NATO is a threat with its policy that aims at deterrence. It was instilled in the population of the GDR that war could break out at any time. This seems to be deeply rooted than in the West."
Sabine Zimmermann, the chairwoman of the Saxony BSW, looks similar to this. "People open their hearts to us at the polling station and say they have existential fears and hope that as a new party we can do something about it," says the 63-year-old. Eastern Germans have a keen sense that they will not be taken seriously about their fears by many in the West, including the media. "There is already concern that a media mainstream similar to 2015 in the migration issue will simply brush aside legitimate concerns and fears."
Torben Braga, the deputy chairman of Thuringia's AfD, says that citizens do not distinguish between responsibilities at the federal or state level. The AfD senses that this is an issue that moves our voters and many citizens intensely. Therefore, it flows into the state election campaign.
Bodo Ramelow, Thuringia's Left Party Minister-President, spoke out recently. While he, unlike BSW and AfD, is in favor of weapons deliveries to Ukraine, he also explicitly defends the talks of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Russia and China on the Ukraine war.
His colleague in Saxony, CDU Minister-President Michael Kretschmer, is seen as an oddity in the CDU with his persistent calls for more diplomacy and a freezing of the war in the CDU. While the AfD has no partners, the BSW could potentially be part of a future government in both Saxony and Thuringia. In Thuringia, according to surveys, it is even conceivable that the young party will be the Minister-President. Thuringia's BSW co-chairman Steffen Schütz says, "Peace belongs to the core brand of the BSW. If we sacrifice that on the altar of political business, then we don't deserve to be re-elected."
There is conflict potential for a BSW/CDU coalition, according to political scientist Lembcke. But it is not insoluble. "For a long time, it has been a beacon of hope for the CDU as to how they can actually answer the power question," says the expert. "Therefore, one will make an effort to avoid this topic." It might be possible to do so by simply referring to the lack of jurisdiction on this issue at the state level.
The AfD in Eastern Germany, like the BSW, is opposed to arm deliveries to Ukraine and advocates for immediate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the context of the Thuringia state elections. This stance aligns with Sahra Wagenknecht's views, as she seeks coalition partners who share her stance against war preparations and in favor of diplomacy.
However, the BSW's focus in the upcoming Brandenburg State Elections is not only on peace but also on education and migration. The party's opinion poll ratings range from 15 to 20 percent in the three states, indicating a potential influence in the new state parliaments.
Meanwhile, historians like Katja Hoyer attribute war anxiety in Eastern Germany to the Cold War, suggesting that the notion of NATO as a threat and the fear of war breaking out at any time is deeply rooted in the region.
The AfD in Thuringia sees this war anxiety as a significant issue in the state election campaign, sensing it as a concern that moves their voters intensely. This overlap in concerns between the AfD and BSW could potentially influence the election outcomes.
Strategically, both the AfD and BSW have an opportunity to capitalize on this war anxiety in the East, where 76 percent of residents fear being drawn into a military conflict, according to the Allensbach Security Report. This suggested alignment of interests between the two parties could play a significant role in the upcoming state elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg.
