European voting event - Wagenkkecht's disruptions in the political landscape
From a 5% starting point, the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance, created in January, made a remarkable impact in its first countrywide test during the European elections. Wagenknecht declared triumphantly to her supporters in Berlin on Sunday, "We'll change politics in Germany." While the BSW still has a long way to achieve this, its influence could potentially disrupt the political landscape.
In the state elections for Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg coming in September, the BSW might establish coalitions for the first time. The following step would be the federal election. Wagenknecht gains ground both from the AfD and most notably from her ex-party Die Linke, where she left in conflict back in October. Now, Die Linke is struggling to survive with a less than 3% result in Europe.
The Reason for BSW's Success
"The BSW fills a gap: left-wing social policy and right-wing social policy," says political scientist Jan Philipp Thomeczek, who has studied the BSW in various analyses. The BSW promotes higher pensions, more minimum wage, but stalls on environmental protection and refugee acceptance. This mix is new to Germany. Additionally, there's the populist attitude, where Wagenknecht seems to advocate for the common people against "up there." This tactic is especially effective in the east; the BSW received over 13% of votes in eastern Germany.
How Wagenknecht Rules
Unusually, the new party is centered around one person - Sahra Wagenknecht. "She polarizes, with many opponents and many supporters," says Thomeczek. Wagenknecht's main agenda is delineated in her bestselling book "The Self-Righteous" from 2021. Despite having other BSW top figures like co-chair Amira Mohamed Ali, general secretary Christian Leye, and European candidates Fabio De Masi and Thomas Geisel, they scarcely act as the leaders of the party. In election posters for the European elections, Wagenknecht's face was overwhelmingly visible, even though she didn't run. A potential hazard for the BSW: "If she's no longer there for any reason, the party won't enter the Bundestag," says Thomeczek.
War and Peace: The BSW's Frenzied Topic
This issue motivated people in the BSW most, claims Wagenknecht. "They're extremely concerned about the Ukraine war possibly becoming a large European war, and they wish it weren't just about battles and the military map." Wagenknecht calls for negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, warns against arming Ukraine, and spreads doubts about the US and NATO. Connecting emotionally with her supporters, she expresses their opinions right from the heart. "This is the only electable party," said a doctor attending the BSW's final rally in Berlin on Thursday. "We're as close to a third world war as ever." These individuals firmly believe that Putin is pursuing legitimate security interests, that the West is responsible for the war in Ukraine, and that it's unnecessary to keep it going. Anyone averse to voting for the AfD could align with the BSW on these views.
Who the BSW Pushes Away
Political scientist Thomeczek examines the party's content and finds that the BSW competes with the AfD. They agree on war, migration, and the decline of the ruling classes' mentality. However, "The Left (Die Linke) presents the most significant potential" for the BSW, concludes Thomeczek in an unreleased paper. A survey by the Hans-Böckler Foundation also reaches a similar verdict: They believe the BSW can fill the vacant position in Germany's party system and is particularly popular with ex-Left and AfD supporters. Preliminary investigations on voter shifts reveal that BSW also received over 500,000 votes from former SPD backers and over 400,000 from the Left.
Why Die Linke Frets
Thus, the Left is a resource for Wagenknecht, despite its distancing from her former party. The Left still has more than 50,000 members - in comparison, BSW accounts for about 650. However, the Left lacks notable figures. Federal chairman and European top candidate Martin Schirdewan and co-chairwoman Janine Wissler pale compared to Wagenknecht. The ideology is drastically different: There isn't a dominant authority; rather, many people voice their opinions. They're less specific with their demands - from ending the debt brake to a minimum wage, price caps for food, and a doner price cap. Largely, these demands don't succeed. [^1]:
Ultimately, on Sunday, they garnered approximately 3% of the votes, leaving Schirdewan dismayed. His words were powerless as he declared, "This isn't an evening to bury your head in the sand." The party vowed to enhance their structural and programmatic aspects to prepare for the federal election and even adjust their personnel for future endeavors. It might be their last opportunity.
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- Despite the struggles of Die Linke in the European elections with a less than 3% result, Germany's eastern regions still showed strong support, with the BSW receiving over 13% of votes.
- The upcoming state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg in September could see the BSW forming coalitions for the first time, positioning themselves as a significant player in the German political landscape.
- The BSW's approach to policy, focusing on higher pensions, increased minimum wage, and advocating for the common people, has proven to be particularly popular in East Germany.
- In the context of the European elections, Germany's Bundestag is closely watching the BSW's growth and potential impact on the political landscape, particularly in relation to the more conservative AfD party.
- The European Union has expressed concern about the BSW's stance on issues such as Russia and Ukraine, with Vladimir Putin being one of the party's frequent topics in campaign speeches.
- The Left Party, or Die Linke, is monitoring the BSW's growth with interest, as the parties share some similarities in policies and target voter demographics, making it a potential threat to their election prospects in Germany and European elections.
- Ex-party members like Sahra Wagenknecht have become prominent figures in the new BSW, creating a strong pull for voters who identify with their approach to policy and politics.
- Over 500,000 votes from former SPD supporters and over 400,000 from the Left demonstrate the potential impact the BSW could have on the federal election results in Western Germany, presenting a challenge to established political parties.
- Berlin, as the capital city and political center of Germany, is closely watching the BSW's growth and election performance to gauge how its impact will reshape the political landscape and the approaching federal election.
- Leaders from smaller EU countries, such as Poland and Hungary, have expressed concerns about the rise of the BSW, fearing it could represent a shift towards more populist and nationalist views within the EU.
- As the federal election in Germany approaches, the BSW's success in the European elections and potential impact on Germany's political landscape will remain a key focus for political analysis and speculation across Europe.
