Von der Leyen attempts the juggle between Greens and Meloni
On this Thursday, Ursula von der Leyen faces a pledge: Does she have a majority in the European Parliament - or not? Her courting continues among feuding camps: the Greens and the party of Italy's prime minister Meloni. Both will need each other in the end.
Ursula von der Leyen can only keep her post as EU Commission President if she gets a majority vote from the European Parliament on Thursday. For weeks, she has been actively courting allies among EU political families. Her coalition in the European Parliament currently consists of the conservative European People's Party (EPP), which includes the CDU and CSU, the Liberals, and the Social Democrats.
These three factions together make up a majority of 401 seats out of a total of 720 in the plenary hall. However, there is no faction compulsion in the European Parliament - a common practice during the vote on the Commission President involves a deviation rate of at least ten percent from this informal coalition. To ensure her re-election, von der Leyen must therefore win over other parties.
As Commission President, von der Leyen is accustomed to mediating disputes. Her role involves ensuring that the 27 EU member states, despite their diverse interests, play fairly in the EU. She also contributes to finding the smallest common denominator in legislative matters. To secure her re-election, von der Leyen must win over two political adversaries in the European Parliament: the Greens and the Post-Fascists from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the party of Italy's Prime Minister Georgia Meloni.
The ECR's second largest party after Meloni's Post-Fascists is the Polish PiS. Both the Post-Fascists and the Greens threaten to withhold their votes if von der Leyen collaborates with their political enemies. The search for majorities is proving to be a tightrope walk.
Meloni could demand a commissioner from her party
The fragility of the informal coalition was evident during the last vote five years ago. Von der Leyen received a total of 383 votes, despite the EPP, Social Democrats, and Liberals having a combined 444 seats. The Greens and the German Social Democrats abstained from voting for von der Leyen, at least according to their own statements. Whether these statements are accurate cannot be verified during the secret ballot.
This could work to von der Leyen's advantage. If, in the end, both the 24 members of the Fratelli and the 53 members of the Green EU fraction were to vote for her, neither side would have to make their support public. Who would prove it? The warnings from the Fratelli towards the Greens and vice versa concern the Commission President's election less than they do the call on von der Leyen not to make political deals with her respective adversary. However, it is unlikely that anyone would vote for von der Leyen without having political gains in mind. So, Meloni could insist on appointing a representative from her party to a key position in the Commission.
Neither Meloni nor the Greens have yet publicly committed to voting for von der Leyen. Both will need her during a second term to further their political agendas: the Greens for environmental laws within the Green Deal, and Meloni's party for all agreements on the EU's common migration policy.
The Greens have given the impression in recent weeks that they would like to become part of the Von der Leyen Coalition - that is, joining the European People's Party, Liberals, and Social Democrats. However, this could prove difficult, as parts of the European People's Party have long accused Von der Leyen of making politics for the Greens rather than for the conservatives within her own party family. Whether such accusations will influence her is uncertain.
At least on a punctual cooperation - regardless of which political camp - Von der Leyen can hardly prevent it, if she is to lead the Commission for another five years. The European Parliament does have the possibility to table a vote of no confidence against the entire Commission and has done so several times. However, none of these votes of no confidence have been accepted with the required two-thirds majority.
- Despite the challenge ahead, Ursula von der Leyen needs the support of the Greens and Italy's prime minister Giorgia Meloni's party, Brothers of Italy, to secure a majority vote in the European Parliament.
- Giorgia Meloni's party, as part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), holds significant influence and could potentially demand a commissioner position in the European Commission.
- If both the Greens and Brothers of Italy vote for von der Leyen, it would allow them to advance their respective political agendas; the Greens in environmental laws within the Green Deal and Brothers of Italy in EU's common migration policy.
- Ursula von der Leyen, as EU Commission President, would need to balance the diverse interests of the 27 EU member states and find a common denominator in legislative matters.
- The ECR's second largest party, the Polish PiS, also presents a challenge, as both the Post-Fascists and the Greens have threatened to withhold their votes if von der Leyen collaborates with their political enemies.
- If von der Leyen fails to secure a majority vote in the European Parliament, the European Parliament could table a vote of no confidence against the entire Commission, yet no such vote has been successful in the past.
