- Victory or Disaster?
On August 6, Ukrainian forces surprisingly breached into Russian territory, heading towards the city of Kursk. Small, mobile groups pushed deep in, unlike previous Ukrainian advances in the Belgorod region.
Politically, this incursion was a success for Kyiv. It humiliated Putin, brought the devastation of war to Russia, and embarrassed the Russian army, which failed to detect the concentration of Ukrainian troops or adequately fortify the border region. Russian soldiers deployed there were unable to stop the Ukrainian onslaught, made possible by the wide gaps between Russian strongpoints.
Phase Two of the Kursk Operation
After this initial phase, the Russians began to reinforce to seal off the Ukrainian breach. Here too, Kyiv achieved a surprising success, thanks to Russian negligence. A reinforcement convoy posted images of its journey to the front. With few possible roads, it was easy to determine the route. When the convoy stopped closely packed, the Ukrainians struck, setting fire to over twelve trucks.
The Russians, however, are also fighting back. The initial small command groups, hidden in houses, were difficult to spot. This does not apply to the reinforcements. To halt the advance, the Russians used their long-range Iskander missiles even against low-priority targets.
Russian reinforcements managed to temporarily block the Ukrainian advance towards Kursk deeper into Russian territory. Meanwhile, the Ukrainians have also brought in more units to the breach area. It remains to be seen whether these troops can overcome the Russian blocking positions, or not. So far, the Ukrainian offensive has not become "stuck".
Intense Fighting for Small Town
At the center of the fighting is the small town of Sudja on the northeastern edge of the breach. Here, the nature of the fighting in the Kursk region is different. The Donbass zone is completely fortified, with positions mutually supporting each other. A surprise breakthrough is only possible in exceptional situations. Around Sudja, there are free zones that allow mobile combat. The Russian garrison there held out in the eastern part of the town, even when cut off. The Russians have since reinforced, and the Ukrainians have taken control of the town center. The Russians are clinging to the eastern part, having stabilized the situation, at least temporarily. The Ukrainians are now trying to encircle the Russians on their flanks and may well take the entire town.
North of the town, the Ukrainians have advanced another 40 kilometers. Between Levshinka and Sheptukhovka, the Russians attacked Ukrainian positions and tanks with long-range weapons. The same picture is seen further east, near the village of Zhuravli.
The Ukrainians are thus expanding the territory they have captured. It remains to be seen if they can hold these villages now that Russian troops are arriving. Kyiv is also trying to attack other parts of the front to reinforce the breach's flanks. However, the element of surprise is gone.
The frontlines and battles are dynamic, and the region is not continuously occupied by troops. In the coming days, large shifts in the front are still possible and expected, as long as new troops can be brought into the fight. Kyiv is also said to have been granted permission to use Western long-range weapons like the Storm Shadow in Russia, which should also boost the Kyiv offensive and hinder Russian efforts to manage the crisis.
What is the Kursk Offensive for?
However, the initial days of euphoria were dampened, despite the element of surprise. The fundamental problems of the Ukrainian forces persist: Russia has more soldiers, more tanks, more artillery, and now guided bombs. Consequently, the Russians are growing stronger in the Kursk area day by day. The Ukrainians can only supply fresh troops to a limited extent and for a limited time to sustain the offensive. From the outside, it's difficult to judge the success or failure of the Ukrainians because the goal of the operation is unknown. In the failed summer offensive of 2023, the goal was clear: to break through to the sea and divide the Russian-occupied territories into two zones.
Goals like capturing the city of Kursk or even advancing further towards Moscow are completely out of the question given the limited troops. There is speculation that Kyiv wants to occupy the nuclear power plant located near Kursk. This would give the breakthrough a "firm shoulder" as Russia cannot intervene with heavy weapons in the zone around the plant. The plant and the captured zone could be an important bargaining chip in any future negotiations. However, the Ukrainian spearheads are still about 70 kilometers away from the plant, with the hotly contested city of Socha being even further away.
What's next
What are the options? The best-case scenario for Kyiv would be to overcome Russian blockades and advance deeper into the country, thus breaking the first Russian containment attempt. However, the problem then becomes that a larger captured zone requires more troops to hold it. Less promising would be if the Russians manage to essentially stop the advance. In that case, Kyiv would have to switch to defense in the captured zone. Apparently, positions are already being dug out for this purpose.
In the best-case scenario, the Ukrainians could defend the captured territories slowly, making it take Putin months to restore the border. However, a victory looks different. By switching to defense, Ukraine loses the initiative, which then goes to the Russian military, which will likely resort to a slow and systematic grind-down. The drama in the Donbass would repeat itself at Kursk. The third option would be the quick evacuation of the captured territory. In that case, Kyiv would reap the political benefits of the surprise success and avoid a costly retreat battle.
"Despite global focus on the Kursk offensive, the situation in the east continues to overshadow Ukraine's gains. Kyiv struggles to maintain its frontlines, with positions gradually being lost. There's no clear way to halt this process currently. The troops deployed at Kursk are sorely missed here. The worst-case scenario for a free Ukraine would be if Russia manages to encircle the Kursk salient and push Ukrainian forces back towards the border using their firepower, while simultaneously breaking through the last heavily fortified defensive lines in the Donbass."
Despite the Ukrainian success in penetrating Russian territory near Kursk, the focus still remains on the eastern front where Ukraine is struggling to maintain its positions.
Moving forward, the best-case scenario for Kyiv would be to retain the captured territory near Kursk, avoiding a costly retreat battle and leveraging the political gains from the initial surprise success.
