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Following the impressive election victories of the AfD, there aren't any clear paths forward. The coalition of traffic lights is effectively over, and it seems to hang by a thread due to Sahra Wagenknecht's influence more than anyone would prefer.
Now, Saxony and Thuringia are left to manage the chaos, and the rest of Germany is growing frustrated. The two-thirds who didn't vote for the AfD will be unhappy with the direction of their country in these two states, but democracy is such that the wrong can sometimes win. And for AfD supporters in these two eastern states, it's the disillusionment of watching their party fail to take power, despite winning both elections.
There's no doubt about it: If the AfD weren't what it is, they would at least place a Minister President in office. One could argue it's self-inflicted, but for how long? How is democracy supposed to regain the people's trust through effective governance if the cost of keeping the blue profiteers out of power is a fragmented coalition government that lacks the ability to generate momentum due to its internal discrepancies? Democracy in these two eastern states becomes a contradiction. There aren't any pleasant outcomes, with the AfD likely to be pleased with its progress. It seems to have emerged from its low point in the first half of the year, at least in these two states and compared to results from five years ago.
Democracy relies on new parliamentary faces
The formation of the government in Thuringia and Saxony will rely on how the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) is integrated. That doesn't bode well, as no one knows what the BSW has to offer. Which personnel, which roadblocks, and which minimum demands - and Wagenknecht's anti-war rhetoric is the least of the concerns. Democracy in these two eastern states therefore depends on an inexperienced team when it comes to governing, and especially parliamentary democracy. Sahra Wagenknecht symbolizes these gaps. She was everywhere, but nowhere was she voted for. What lies ahead remains to be seen.
In this chaos, the traffic light parties will no longer serve as a stabilizing force. The FDP has stopped breathing in the east, while in Berlin, it will hyperventilate. The Greens are labeled as an elitist city party for a long time to come. The SPD has lost the workers due to its prioritization of unemployed and social recipients over them. All this has hit Thuringia and Saxony harder than ever before and anywhere else. The SPD is lucky to have secured a place in both state parliaments. Is that all that needs to be said?
The blame for this mostly lies with the seemingly endless grandstanding of the federal government. In a perfect storm of incompetence and blindness, they've downplayed their accomplishments as if they were smaller than they truly are, and their mistakes as if they were larger than they are. The responsible parties and the government have damaged the people's trust in politics due to their betrayal of trust in each other - often for a cheap price. Nevertheless, the federal government is crucial to democracy in these two eastern states, primarily because it is the federal government.
Stable conditions in Saxony and Thuringia can only be hoped for if the federal government does more: more action, less talk. However, there aren't any good solutions even here, as the election results of the two eastern states leave us in disbelief: the AfD and BSW parties have almost secured a majority together, expressing their desire to hand over Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin as soon as possible. They also promise cheap gas, convincing voters that the Kremlin leader is a trustworthy, generous supplier, not a warmonger. No federal government can accept this. The dilemma is unsolvable.
And the last bad solution that remains: The CDU will rightly want to lead the two governments. But it should remember it's executing an AfD plan, which isn't even a secret. As much as the AfD despises the Green Party's values and ideals, its strategic goal is the destruction of the CDU. It is the only mainstream, center-right party that can prevent the AfD's dominance permanently.
The other parties, especially the SPD, have contributed significantly to the rise of the AfD. They can't stop its advance, only the CDU can. But they must now govern with parties to the left or far left of the center, a Wagenknecht alliance that remains mysterious.
And those who today talk about saving democracy with great conviction, demanding a "firewall," should not demand the impossible from the CDU tomorrow, when they must begin governing. Now we're in a pickle.
In the context of the current political turmoil, the FDP might find it challenging to regain its presence in the eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia, given their declining influence.
In the formation of the new government in Thuringia and Saxony, the role of the FDP becomes crucial, as they may need to find a common ground with the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) to prevent a majority of the AfD and BSW parties.
