- US and Israel: Iran attack may be imminent
According to Israeli and U.S. assessments, the long-anticipated retaliatory strike by Iran and its allies against Israel could be imminent. The U.S. shares Israel's assessment that this could happen "this week," said John Kirby, the communications director of the U.S. National Security Council. Diplomatic efforts to deter Iran and its allies from an attack are ongoing. An upcoming round of negotiations on Thursday to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza conflict between Israel and Hamas could be crucial in defusing the tense situation in the entire Middle East.
Germany, the U.S., Britain, France, and Italy have called on Iran to halt its ongoing threats of attack against Israel. The leaders of these five countries stated this after a joint discussion on the situation in the Middle East. An attack, they warned, would have serious consequences for regional security. The countries expressed their support for ongoing efforts to de-escalate the situation, achieve a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and secure the release of hostages held by Hamas. Time is of the essence, they emphasized.
Can a new round of Gaza talks ease tensions?
Both mediators, the U.S., Qatar, and Egypt, as well as Israel, have confirmed that their representatives will attend the talks on Thursday in Doha or Cairo. However, it is still uncertain whether a Hamas team will participate. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken discussed with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan the importance of Hamas returning to the talks to finalize an immediate and lasting ceasefire in Gaza and ensure the release of all hostages, a State Department spokesperson said.
The mediators had urged Israel and Hamas to resume talks on August 15 to "close all remaining gaps and begin implementing the agreement without further delay." Blinken thanked Turkey for supporting this statement, the spokesperson added. However, Hamas had asked the mediators on Sunday to develop a plan for implementing the existing proposal for a ceasefire agreement instead of holding further negotiations or presenting new drafts.
One possible interpretation of this message is that Hamas leader Yahya al-Sinwar is waiting for Iran and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia's attack on Israel before negotiating, hoping for better conditions afterward, Israeli journalist Barak Ravid said in an interview with U.S. news channel CNN. Sinwar is believed to be hiding somewhere in the extensive tunnel network of Hamas under the sealed-off Gaza Strip.
More than a week after the killing of a Hezbollah military commander in Lebanon and a Hamas leader in the Iranian capital Tehran, it remains unclear whether and when Iran and its allied Hezbollah will carry out the threatened hard-hitting retaliatory strikes against Israel.
Report: Iran's military makes preparations
Israel can reliably count on the support of the USA and other allies in intercepting missiles, cruise missiles, and drones. This was already the case in mid-April when Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel, with Israel managing to intercept most of the over 300 projectiles with its own capabilities and with the help of the USA and other allies. According to the US news portal "Axios", citing Israeli and US officials, Iran has now made similar preparations for its rocket and drone units as it did before the April attack on Israel.
"It's difficult to say at this point what a potential attack by Iran and its proxies could look like," said Kirby. "But we must be prepared for a possible series of attacks that could be significant." US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had already ordered the deployment of the nuclear-powered submarine "USS Georgia", and the aircraft carrier "USS Abraham Lincoln" and its escort ships are expected to speed up their journey to the region, the Pentagon announced on Monday. The aircraft carrier, with its modern F-35 fighter jets, will supplement the "USS Theodore Roosevelt" already stationed in the area.
USA and Israel prepare for possible attack
Israel's military has been on high alert for days. Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi stressed after a meeting with high-ranking military officials that the army is preparing for both offensive and defensive measures. "We are in the days of vigilance and preparedness, the threats from Tehran and Beirut can materialize, and it is important to explain to everyone that preparedness, preparation, and vigilance are not synonyms for fear and panic," Defense Minister Joav Galant told "Times of Israel".
Meanwhile, a spokesman for Hamas said that two members of its military wing had killed an Israeli hostage. Two other hostages were injured, Abu Obaida said, who is affiliated with the Al-Qassam Brigades. The acts were "a response to the Israeli crimes against the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip". The Israeli military said it could neither confirm nor deny the claims at this time. Obaida's statement is being reviewed.
Hamas and other terrorists from the Gaza Strip attacked southern Israel on October 7 last year, killing over 1,200 people and taking another 250 as hostages. This unprecedented massacre triggered the Gaza War. During a brief ceasefire, over 100 hostages were released, mostly women and elderly people. The released hostages reported inhumane conditions, deprivations, violence, and psychological terror.
Hamas is still holding 115 hostages, according to Israeli estimates, of which Israel has declared 41 dead. Furthermore, it is likely that other hostages, whose fate is unknown, are no longer alive.
Given the current tensions in the Middle East, a successful conclusion to the upcoming Gaza talks could significantly ease tensions between Israel and Hamas, potentially defusing the situation and preventing a potential escalation of violence. However, if Iran and its allies carry out their threatened retaliatory strikes against Israel, as preparations indicate, the situation could become more volatile and complex.
