- Upon thorough evaluation, the CDU emerges as the most influential party in Saxony.
Victory Narrowly Secured After a Long Delay: CDU Wins Saxon State Election, Surpassing AfD's Gain but Falling Short of Overtaking. Despite significantly improving on its 2019 election result, the AfD fails to surpass the barely dipping Union.
Formation of Government Might Be Difficult, as No Other Party Wants to Collaborate with AfD. Furthermore, the current CDU, Greens, and SPD coalition does not possess sufficient mandates for renewal, as suggested by ARD and ZDF projections. No information regarding seat distribution has been released by the state election commissioner yet.
Third Place Goes to New Alliance "Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht" (BSW), with the SPD Following at a Distance. The Greens Just Make the Cut to Enter Parliament. The Left Fails to Meet the Five-Percent Threshold, but Wins Two Direct Mandates in Leipzig, Ensuring Representation in the State Parliament.
BSW Obtains Double Digits on its Debut
According to information from the state election office, following the completion of all votes, the CDU secures 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent), just behind the AfD with 30.6 percent (27.5). The BSW debuts with 11.8 percent. The SPD lands at 7.3 percent (7.7), while The Left suffers a significant decline to 4.5 percent (10.4).
The Greens gather 5.1 percent (8.6), and the FDP fails to re-enter the state parliament, as in the two previous elections.
In accordance with the latest ARD and ZDF projections, the AfD, labeled as a right-wing extremist party by the Saxon Office for the Protection of the Constitution, will hold 40 seats (38), while the CDU will have 42 (45). The BSW will have 15 seats, the SPD 10 (10), the Greens 7 (12), and The Left 6.
Approximately 3.3 million citizens had the right to vote, with a record turnout of 74.4 percent - the highest for a state election in Saxony to date.
Kretschmer Anticipates Difficult Government Formation
Minister President Kretschmer believes his party is capable of continuing to govern. "This won't be easy," he stated at the CDU's election celebration. "However, one thing is clear: After numerous conversations and a desire to serve this state, we can establish a stable government for Saxony that acts with humility." The CDU stands ready to continue shouldering responsibility for the state.
CDU Might Rely on BSW
Since reunification, the CDU has consistently provided Saxony's head of government, most recently Kretschmer, who has been in power since 2019 in a coalition with the Greens and SPD. However, the current coalition lacks the necessary mandates for continuation. A CDU majority with the support of the BSW and SPD is mathematically feasible.
However, some CDU politicians harbor reservations regarding a coalition with the BSW, as its leader, Sahra Wagenknecht, was once a member of the SED and later emerged as a symbol of the communist movement within The Left. A coalition is still possible, as the CDU's incompatibility resolution prohibits cooperation with the AfD or The Left, but does not address the BSW, which has split from The Left.
Before the election, the Greens accused the CDU and SPD of planning for a joint minority government. The CDU and SPD have already formed three coalitions in Saxony.
The AfD had surpassed the Union in Saxony in two federal elections and one European election. Should the AfD now secure more than a third of the seats in the state parliament, as recent projections did not suggest, it would obtain what is known as a "blocking minority." In decisions and elections requiring a two-thirds majority, the AfD's consent would be required. For example, constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.
AfD federal co-chair Alice Weidel described the results in Thuringia and Saxony as a historical triumph for her party. At the same time, she criticized the CDU's stance of excluding a coalition with the AfD, deeming it "pure ignorance of the voters' will." She emphasized that without the AfD, a stable government would not be possible.
The Saxony BSW's top candidate, Sabine Zimmermann, was pleased with her party's result. "We've achieved double digits, and we've maintained our result from the European election. We should be proud of that, and we are," she said in the ARD. The BSW, she added, would force a shift in politics, making a significant impact on citizens in a short time. "And that's noticeable," she said in the ZDF, expressing her desire for collaboration with the Christian Democrats.
SPD top candidate Petra Köpping expressed joy at her party's performance. "I'm as happy as you are that we've performed so well in this tough campaign we've been fighting for months, if not years, despite all the predictions," she said.
The Greens' leader, Omid Nouripour, saw the potential for his party to remain in the Saxon government. In an interview with the ARD, he highlighted that the coalition had worked well, "even if the minister-president has been campaigning against his own people for the last two years."
The political race was intense, with a major point of dispute being Russia's conflict against Ukraine and Germany's position as Kiew's ally, along with being part of NATO. Wagenknecht stated that for the BSW to join a governing body, it must unequivocally stand against the placement of long-range American missiles in Germany.
The Solingen incident stirred up more controversy regarding asylum and immigration. Regrettably, three lives were lost in this incident, and the federal prosecutor's office points the finger at a suspected Islamic Syrian refugee.
The ZDF, like ARD, projected that the AfD would hold 40 seats in the Saxon state parliament, while the CDU would have 42 seats.
Sabine Zimmermann, the BSW's top candidate, expressed her desire for collaboration with the Christian Democrats in an interview with ZDF.
