Upcoming U.S. election casts shadow on NATO talks concerning shielding Ukraine assistance from Trump's influence
In a private get-together with his peers at NATO on a Thursday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke candidly about the upcoming election and its potential impact on Ukraine aid, stating that while he can't foresee the future, there remains bipartisan support for Ukraine in Congress, as informed sources reported.
NATO leaders are readying for a potential diminished American involvement.
"We shouldn't expect the United States to continue carrying such a substantial burden," a top NATO official admitted on Thursday, noting the Secretary General's desire for NATO to spearhead security assistance rather than a single nation assuming this role.
"Europe needs to up its game even more," the official added.
The possibility of a Trump victory has raised doubts about the future of US aid to Ukraine. Last month, the former president declined to comment on Ukraine's victory in the war, and has derided Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a "salesman" who "shouldn't have started that war in the first place."
The timing, some officials argue, could not be worse.
"I'm quite concerned," the NATO official admitted. "Enthusiastic isn't the word I'd use to describe the current situation in Ukraine."
Russia has been making incremental, tactical gains within Ukraine, outpacing the Ukrainians three to one on the battlefield, and maintaining a "substantial" advantage in personnel and ammunition heading into the harsh winter months, the official noted. And President Joe Biden remains opposed to allowing Ukraine to use US-provided long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia, a policy that many NATO officials disagree with.
"I don't think anybody can deny that there are legitimate targets in Russia that would significantly impact the battlefield for Ukraine," the NATO official said. "Ukraine needs a diverse range of capabilities to target these areas."
Secretary Austin suggested on Friday that Ukrainian-made, inexpensive long-range drones could be more effective at taking out targets inside Russia, such as ammunition depots, than expensive, precision-guided missiles. "These UAVs have proven to be both effective and accurate," he said, referring to the unmanned aerial vehicles.
Allies work towards long-term support
The uncertainty over the US's future role has largely prompted NATO to reinforce its authority over the training of Ukrainian troops and provision of military aid, thus giving Europe more control if the US decides to scale back or halt aid to Ukraine under a Trump administration. However, this mechanism, known as NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, is still not fully operational and won't be for several more months, another NATO official revealed on Friday.
European nations, on the other hand, are striving to boost the production of crucial weapons and equipment not only to maintain aid to Ukraine if the US withdraws support but also to bolster their own security in the face of the Russian threat.
Trump infamously stated earlier this year that he had advised a NATO member country that the US would not defend them against a Russian invasion if they didn't meet NATO spending guidelines, and that he would "encourage [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want."
An EU and G7 plan to secure long-term funding for Ukraine's military and reconstruction is currently in limbo, with Hungary blocking a change to EU sanctions on Russia's frozen assets that is essential to issue a $50 billion loan to Ukraine using the proceeds from these assets, arguing that a decision should be postponed until after the US election.
The Biden administration has been diligently working to ensure Ukraine has the resources for a prolonged fight, and Biden is now reportedly utilizing all congressionally allocated funds for Ukraine. The administration has also invested "billions" in Ukraine's defense industry, enabling it to manufacture its own ammunition.
"Each day, we're strengthening Ukraine's long-term capabilities," Austin said on Friday. "This will help Ukraine succeed in the long run."
North Korea, Iran, and China bolster Russia
The West may struggle to match the Russians' pace in the near future.
Russia alone is producing approximately 3 million munitions per year, while NATO collectively produces less than 2 million annually, NATO officials noted on Thursday. This is a significant improvement from just tens of thousands of rounds a few years ago, but still falls short of Ukraine's needs.
Russia is capable of maintaining high levels of munitions production for several more years, the senior NATO official claimed, as it is producing simple weapons like unguided bombs and has converted its entire economy to a war footing.
Moreover, Russia is receiving significant assistance from North Korea, which has supplied Moscow with around 11,000 containers of ammunition consisting of about 2 million artillery rounds since last year, according to the senior NATO official. And South Korean intelligence has discovered that North Korea had dispatched around 12,000 troops, including special operations forces, to support Russia, as reported on Friday.
Iran, meanwhile, has delivered three shipments of ballistic missiles to Russia, and China continues to play a "critical role" in enabling Russia's military campaign, the NATO official asserted.
Austin has endeavored to reassure allies that the US is making efforts to boost domestic weapons and equipment production to maintain aid to Kyiv through at least the next year. At a meeting with NATO's Indo-Pacific partners on Thursday, Austin and his counterparts discussed defense supply chains to identify and source raw materials needed for increased weapons production.
NATO Chief, Mark Rutte, expressed assurance on Thursday that the alliance won't lose its solidarity regarding Ukraine's situation. Moreover, during his speech on Friday, he subtly criticized individuals labeling Ukraine's assistance as a charitable gesture.
Rutte straightforwardly stated, "Aiding Ukraine is not an act of benevolence." He further emphasized that it's equally an investment in our own safety. This is because the price tag for allowing (Russian President Vladimir) Putin to have his way would significantly surpass the expenditure involved in backing Ukraine.
In light of the potential political changes in the US, NATO leaders are contemplating a more significant role in providing aid to Ukraine.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the future of US politics and its impact on Ukraine aid, it's crucial for Europe to enhance its military capabilities for both Ukraine's support and its own security.
