- Upcoming parliamentary elections are preceded by a recent poll
In advance of the regional elections, the ZDF Politbarometer predicts the AfD as the most powerful faction in Thuringia, while in Saxony, the CDU has a strong chance of winning. According to the latest study by the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, published in the "Heute Journal", new regional parliaments will be elected in both states this Sunday.
In Thuringia, the AfD polls at 29%, significantly outpacing the CDU with 23% and the Sahra Wagenknecht alliance (BSW) with 18%. The Left, currently in power with Bodo Ramelow as the state premier, is at 13%. The SPD could earn 6%, with the Greens possibly falling short of entering the state parliament with 4%. The remaining parties combine for 7%, and no party achieves more than 3%.
"This would form a narrow majority for a coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD," it was stated. While coalitions of AfD and CDU, AfD and BSW, or even CDU, BSW, and Left theoretically have a majority, these options have been dismissed by either the CDU or BSW. However, 29% of respondents remain undecided about their voting choice or decision.
CDU continues to lead in Saxony
In Saxony, the CDU, under the leadership of Michael Kretschmer, enjoys a substantial edge over the AfD with 33% to 30%. According to the survey, the Left would not be present in the state parliament with 4%, while the Greens and SPD would each earn 6%. The BSW is rated at 12% in the survey. Together, the remaining parties amount to 9%, and no party exceeds 3%.
"The continuation of the CDU, Greens, and SPD government and a similar narrow majority for an alliance of CDU and BSW" is possible according to the pollsters. A coalition of CDU and AfD is also conceivable, but this has been rejected by the CDU. In Saxony, 24% of respondents remain unsure about their voting choice or decision.
Poll results stable despite Solingen
The poll figures for individual parties have barely altered since the Politbarometer of August 23 - despite the survey being conducted following the suspected Islamist attack in Solingen. On Friday evening, a suspect attacked attendees at a city festival using a knife, causing three fatalities and injuring eight. The suspect, the 26-year-old Syrian Issa Al H., is now in custody in Düsseldorf.
Poll results are subject to uncertainties. A decrease in party loyalty, along with increasingly short-term voting decisions, makes it challenging for polling institutes to interpret the data collected. In essence, polls mirror the public's opinion at the time of the survey and do not predict the election outcome.
In light of these polls, if the election to the Landtag were to take place as predicted, the AfD would hold the most seats in Thuringia, potentially forming a coalition with CDU or BSW, however, both parties have ruled out these options. In Saxony, the CDU, currently leading with 33%, remains the favored choice for the majority, with the CDU and BSW coalition being a possibility.
