In 2024, right-wing parties anticipate making gains in European elections, while the green party faces a predicament.

European Parliament: The legislative body of the European Union - Upcoming European Elections in 2024: Anticipated Right-Wing Triumph and the Dilemma of the Greens

Which political path will the EU follow in the wake of the devastating Corona pandemic and the beginning of Russia's brutal attack on Ukraine? The elections in Germany and around two dozen other EU countries will determine the composition of the next European Parliament by the weekend's decision-making process.

On Sunday night, eligible EU citizens will vote on which direction they want the EU to take for the next five years. Will it be leftist, green, social democrat, liberal, conservative, or rightist?

Le Pen and Meloni on the rise

Saturday night would likely see a surge in support for right-wing parties. In France, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen may become the most powerful political force based on projections and double the number of parliamentary seats currently held by "Besoin d'Europe" led by French President Emmanuel Macron. The Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d'Italia) led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Dutch right-wing populist Geert Wilders, and Austria's FPO and Germany's AfD are all anticipating significant gains.

However, are these gains indicative of a noticeable right-wing shift with consequences? This doubt is raised considering that right-wing parties could gain a maximum of approximately 200 of the 720 seats in the European Parliament. Under current forecasts, the Christian-conservative party family (EVP) with the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) anticipates becoming the most influential political force with around 180 seats.

Theoretically, the EVP and its German parties could negotiate a cooperation with the Social Democrats and Liberals, who are estimated to have around 140 and 90 seats, respectively, according to the latest projections, despite significant losses. Together, these party families could secure a comfortable majority, potentially stabilized by the inclusion of the Greens, who were forecast to have approximately 50 seats, but would suffer a significant loss of about 20 seats from their 2019 election result.

Divergent Ideologies

A significant challenge is that right-wing parties have so far been unable to forge a formidable alliance. Le Pen's RN in the current legislative term was a part of the right-wing faction ID (Identity and Democracy), while Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia belonged to the competing ECR (European Conservatives and Reformers). The ID expelled all German AfD MEPs from the faction at the end of the legislative period due to controversial statements by an AfD candidate, Maximilian Krah, about the SS and a Chinese espionage case involving one of Krah's employees.

Le Pen is currently campaigning for Meloni to form a union in the hope of becoming the second-largest faction in the European Parliament after the election. However, it is unclear whether this will be successful. One factor is that Meloni is also being courted by the powerful EVP led by Manfred Weber (CSU). Weber stresses that the EVP intends to work with all parties "who are pro-rule of law, pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine." Meanwhile, Ursula von der Leyen, the Spitzenkandidatin and President of the EU Commission, says about Meloni, "She is clearly pro-European, against Putin (...) and pro-rule of law."

Potential Cooperation or Alliance?

For at least a loose cooperation with the EPP, Meloni is a viable option as she would be close to the power center of the EU. The EPP currently has 13 of the 27 heads of state and government at EU summits and is, therefore, the most influential political entity. If Meloni forms a close alliance with Le Pen, this could conflict with the EPP's plans to cooperate with them—Le Pen is seen as Euroskeptic, pro-Russia, and far-right by the EPP, despite her recent efforts to distance herself from her father Jean-Marie Le Pen.

For Ursula von der Leyen, who is aiming for a second term as President of the EU Commission, the situation presents both an opportunity and a risk. In step one, she must be proposed by a qualified majority at an EU summit as a candidate to the Parliament. This requires the support of at least 13 EPP heads of state and government, as well as at least three more from large member states in addition to these.

Von der Leyen needs partners

In step two, she'll need to unite the majority of parliamentarians in a secret vote. For this, von der Leyen and the EPP could rely on an alliance with the Greens, Social Democrats, and Liberals to secure her re-election. If, for example, the Greens don't participate, votes from Meloni's party could help ensure her re-election. However, there is a risk that an alliance with Meloni or other right-wingers may compel Social Democrats to refuse to back von der Leyen.

Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) stated in the election campaign that if the next Commission is formed, it should not rely on a majority in the Parliament that also depends on the support of right-wing extremists. Whether he intends to include Meloni's party in this remains ambiguous. So far, there has been talk of close cooperation on EU level with Meloni from the Chancellery.

Von der Leyen's advantage lies in the fact that there are no other serious contenders for the Commission presidency. Candidates such as Luxembourg's Social Democrat, Nicholas Schmit and German Green politician, Terry Reintke are not in the running. Even the possibility of Macron suggesting former Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi as an alternative is being discussed.

But it's hard to imagine the Parliament accepting another candidate who hasn't been backed by a party before. This situation caused von der Leyen to sweat it out during her 2019 election in the Parliament, ultimately winning by a slim margin of just nine more votes than required.

Will the Greens come to terms with their resistance against the CDU's Ursula von der Leyen and consider how it impacts their own political objectives? Despite recent accusations of downplaying her environmental protection efforts due to European farmers' protests, green top politicians privately concede that there aren't any better substitutes from their point of view. Women, aged 65, is seen as an advocate for climate change by the Greens, having made significant progress in the EU during her time.

A significant political swing to the right seems unlikely at this point. However, the EU could experience one if Marine Le Pen wins the 2027 French presidential election. If she does, France, the EU's second largest economy, will be governed by someone with a clear right-wing stance, meaning a potentially game-changing shift.