Upcoming data collection for the legislative assembly election in Saxony
Saxony Faces a Tight Race: On September 1st, approximately 3.3 million eligible voters in Saxony will significantly impact the future political landscape of the Dresden state parliament. The CDU has held the title of the strongest force in the state since 1990, but recent polls suggest a tight race between the CDU and the right-wing populist AfD.
The elections in Saxony are shaping up to be closely contested: Over the past few months, the CDU and AfD have often been neck and neck in polls. However, the lead of the right-wing populists appeared to dissipate in the summer, but in the latest poll, the Christian Democrats were seen clear ahead of the right-wingers.
"This is a do-or-die election, everything's riding on this," explained Michael Kretschmer, Saxony's Minister-President and the CDU's top candidate in the September 1st state election. Kretschmer urged his fellow citizens to support the democratic center.
Note: Polling data for the 2026 Saxony state election is continually updated.
The most recent polls show the Saxony CDU securing 29 to 33 percent of the vote, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has been polling between 30 and 32 percent in recent weeks. The "Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht" (BSW) is expected to reach between 11 and 15 percent according to polls, making them the new third strongest force in Saxony. The SPD is predicted to be between six and seven percent in surveys, while the Greens are projected to be between five and six percent depending on the polling institute.
Forming a stable government majority may prove challenging in Saxony: Kretschmer may have to settle for second place with the Saxony CDU.
To date, Kretschmer has been supported by a black-green-red majority in Saxony. However, whether this coalition can continue is highly uncertain. Kretschmer himself has announced that he aims to govern without the Greens in the future. However, his coalition options without the Greens are limited.
The CDU has been the governing party in Saxony since reunification. If Kretschmer fails to secure more than 32.2 percent of the votes, he would be responsible for the worst CDU result in a Saxony state election to date. Even with the novelty of a CDU/BSW alliance, Kretschmer might only secure a narrow majority.
Kretschmer's negotiation power also depends on how many parties manage to surpass the five-percent hurdle. For instance, in a survey commissioned by the Saxon Newspaper on June 19th, the SPD and Greens in Saxony were each seen at 5.0 percent. Without sufficient direct mandates, the goal of "re-entry into the state parliament" could also be unstable for the Social Democrats and Greens.
Kretschmer enjoys popular support amongst the population. In the direct election question of the pollsters, CDU politician Kretschmer is well ahead of AfD's top candidate Jörg Urban. Only 17 percent of those surveyed by Infratest dimap could visualize the right-wing candidate as the future head of government. The AfD's top candidate, therefore, performs worse than his party in this poll.
clear majorities are not yet within reach in Saxony. According to the current polls, The Left is unlikely to be represented in the future state parliament: In the current surveys, the party consistently scores below five percent. However, unlike in Thuringia, Saxony's state electoral law offers the so-called basic mandate clause. This means that if a party wins more than two direct mandates, they can bypass the five-percent hurdle and still enter the state parliament.
The new circumstances in Saxony are causing political scientists to wrinkle their brows: If, in the worst-case scenario, both The Left and the Social Democrats fail to enter the state parliament, there will only be three factions represented there in the future. CDU politician Kretschmer is facing highly controversial decisions at the federal level, regardless of the outcome: Can the CDU form a stable government with Wagenknecht's alliance? In the "Early Start" on RTL and ntv, he did not rule out a coalition with the BSW upon request.
However, the CDU politician criticized the BSW sharply. The alliance is primarily campaigning for Wagenknecht in Saxony, although the politician is not running in the election there on September 1. Moreover, their program is largely unknown. "That's also a mystery box, a black box," said Kretschmer.
CDU candidate Kretschmer has already announced before the election that he aims to continue governing - preferably with the SPD and without the Greens. He explicitly ruled out cooperation with the AfD. Based on the current polling data, the CDU could achieve a maximum of 56 out of the regular 120 seats in a two-party alliance with the Social Democrats. The threshold for a majority is 61 mandates.
However, even with the Greens and The Left in the state parliament, a theoretical continuation of black-green-red would not be straightforward: Not all August polls would be enough for the CDU and SPD with the Saxon Greens to reach a stable majority.
Together with the BSW, Kretschmer would currently reach a narrow majority of 63 seats. An alliance with Wagenknecht's young political project carries certain risks: Kretschmer would have to undertake a controversial experiment and, possibly alongside Voigt in Thuringia, would be the first CDU politician to dare a "black box" or "mystery box" coalition at the state level.
Katja Meier, the Green Party's leading figure in Saxony, has categorically rejected the possibility of forming a coalition with the BSW. "I'm part of Alliance 90/The Greens, a party that emerged from the civil liberties movement that hit the streets in 1989 demanding free elections, democracy, and press freedom," stated Meier on RTL/ntv's "Early Start". Due to the BSW's stance on Russia, she finds it hard to fathom collaborating with a party that not only advocates for an autocratic regime but also governs in an authoritative manner.
Meier, currently serving as Saxony's justice minister, views the coalition with the CDU and SPD as a triumph. She criticized Kretschmer for voicing opposition to a potential Green-CDU-SPD alliance. "I believe Kretschmer's apocalyptic forecasts are utterly misplaced here, as the focus should be on maintaining a balanced majority and not veering to the right towards the AfD, just as much as steering clear of the Kremlin-aligned BSW," she noted.
Note: This chart displays the results from the 2019 Saxony state election.
The definitive ratios of the Saxon state parliament's majority will only be established on election day. Voter turnout is likely to have a substantial impact on the actual result in Saxony, as suggested by statistical analysis.
In the 2019 election, the voter turnout in Saxony was 66.5%. If the non-voters had cast their votes, they would theoretically have made up 33.5% of the total vote count. A total of 19 parties and voter groups will be vying for votes in Saxony's election on September 1.
During the 2019 election, the CDU received its lowest score in Saxony since unification, capturing 32.1% of the votes. The AfD finished in second place with 27.5%, followed by the Left with 10.4%. The Greens garnered 8.6% of the votes in Saxony in 2019, and the Social Democrats came in fifth with a 7.7% vote share.
The Commission has been closely monitoring the political landscape in Saxony, taking note of the tight race between the CDU and the AfD. Regardless of the outcome, the fate of the current black-green-red coalition in Saxony hangs in the balance, with the Commission analyzing the potential impact on governing majorities.
