Unusual Russian vessels in Moldova spark worry
The initial election round in Moldova has concluded, leading to outcomes the Kremlin isn't fond of. Around early November, the pro-EU candidate and their Russia-aligned counterpart will go head-to-head in a runoff. The looming specter is a potential escalation, potentially masterminded by Moscow. A seaport might play a part in this.
Unease has sparked due to reported Russian vessels docking at the Danube port of Giurgiulesti in Moldova. Though the freighters' goods remain unknown, they could be innocuous items - there's no confirmation either way. Olya Korbut of the Center for European Policy Analysis recently expressed concern over the Kremlin's alleged "fixation" on "clandestine operations." Moscow might be planning to meddle further in the small nation.
In the Moldovan presidential election, the pro-European candidate Maia Sandu clinched victory in the first round. Voters also voted in favor of aligning the EU trajectory within the constitution. Sandu accused Russia of threatening freedom and democracy by buying an alleged 'hundreds of thousands' of votes. On November 3, a runoff will occur between her and second-place finisher Alexandr Stoianoglo, a Russia-friendly socialist. Worries of an escalation, potentially orchestrated by Russia, linger if Sandu wins again.
Russian journalist Andrij Klymenko, based in Ukraine and leading the Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies, has foreseen this scenario for months. He reported in early October about five ships that, as per him, sailed from Russian ports to the Moldovan port of Giurgiulesti via the Danube over the last few months.
Klymenko accused Moscow of trying to spark an "anti-Maidan" in Moldova, or an anti-European agenda. He reminded of Russia deploying special units from the mainland in an old bulk freighter in Sevastopol on the eve of the Crimea occupation in February 2014, following the pro-European Maidan protests in Ukraine.
As yet, nothing similar has happened in Moldova, despite Maia Sandu's triumph in the first election. However, she didn't secure an absolute majority, thus prompting a runoff that will once more place the small country under the global limelight - and likely also within Russia's bid to exert influence.
Transnistria Connection
Furthermore, there's speculation that Moscow is using these enigmatic vessels to supply its forces stationed in the secessionist Transnistrian province via the port of Giurgiulesti. Olya Korbut, an analyst, opines that there's a direct railway link from Giurgiulesti to Transnistria.
Russia reportedly finds it challenging to replace the officer corps of its 1,500-strong force in the region and modernize its equipment. Since 2015, Moldovan authorities have refused to allow officers passage through Moldova, and in 2022, an alternative land route was closed due to protests from Moscow, according to Korbut.
The route via the Giurgiulesti port might have become viable for Russia because it's guarded by international maritime law, rendering it out of reach for neighboring countries like Romania or Ukraine for cargo inspections. Giurgiulesti is a free port and belongs to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. It is Moldova's sole avenue to the sea.
The Black Sea Institute for Strategic Studies urged action in early October. It suggested implementing specific regulations to conduct searches on Russian ships docking at Giurgiulești in the Romanian and Ukrainian sections of the Danube. Korbut cited the "high level of proficiency" of the Ukrainian military's naval forces and their successful collaboration with Romania and Bulgaria in the grain corridor as an example of what's achievable.
In light of these circumstances, the European Union might express concerns over potential Russian interference in Moldova's elections and its relations with Transnistria. The European Union could also offer support to Moldova in enforcing customs and inspection measures at the Giurgiulesti port to prevent any suspicious activities.
