- Unpredictable Eastern Elections: What's Next for the Traffic Light Coalition?
Berlin (dpa) – It's a catastrophe in the making. It was already evident that the elections in Thuringia and Saxony would be a major setback for the traffic light coalition in Berlin. The question was: How devastating will it be?
The answer, according to initial projections at 6:00 PM, is: Catastrophic, but it could've been worse. The FDP is out of the Thuringian state parliament, meaning they are not represented in either parliament. The Greens, who were previously a governing party in both states, also failed to surpass the 5% threshold in Thuringia and are unsure about re-entering the Saxony state parliament. At least, the SPD manages to avoid the embarrassment of not being represented in a state parliament for the first time in the history of the Federal Republic. However, their results are in the single digits in both states.
Never before have the parties that make up the federal government performed so poorly in state elections simultaneously. The fact that the Left Party (BSW) in Thuringia scored higher than the SPD, Greens, and FDP combined, and that the AfD is now almost three times stronger than the traffic light coalition, speaks volumes. The fact that the coalition partners managed to patch things up shortly before the elections and agree on consequences from the knife attack in Solingen without public controversy did not help them.
Is Scholz back to being the Teflon Chancellor?
What do these results mean for the traffic light coalition? Chancellor Olaf Scholz has so far managed to shrug off all election defeats. When the SPD came in with its worst result in a national election in over 130 years in May's European election, he walked through the Willy Brandt House, took selfies with his comrades, and declined to comment on the election result with a simple "No." The next day, he merely said that it's now up to the coalition to do its work and "prepare for the support to grow larger."
This did not go down well with his comrades. Frustration over the Chancellor's (lack of) communication within the SPD is rampant. The fact that he hasn't made a move yet likely stems from the certainty that it wouldn't help the party ahead of upcoming elections if it were to tear itself apart.
Brandenburg is more crucial for Scholz and the SPD
This is likely to be the case again this time. Because in three weeks, there is an election that is even more important for the SPD than Saxony and Thuringia. The Social Democrats have held the position of Minister President in Brandenburg since 1990. If the re-election of the incumbent Dietmar Woidke fails, discipline within the SPD could be at risk.
Then it could also become uncomfortable for Scholz, who had confidently announced before the summer break that he wanted to lead his party into the next federal election. All speculation about a Joe Biden scenario, in which Scholz could step aside in favor of the more popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD), is currently being dismissed by the party leadership. "We want and will run with Olaf Scholz in the next federal election," SPD chairman Lars Klingbeil repeats like a mantra. Health Minister Karl Lauterbach recently said defiantly in "Stern": "Olaf Scholz is the best federal chancellor we've ever had."
A new election of the Bundestag remains unlikely.
The debate over early elections due to the waning support for the traffic light coalition could re-ignite in the coming days and weeks. The main argument against such a move is that all traffic light parties would have to reckon with a crash. Currently, they are polling between 29 and 34% nationwide, compared to 52% in the 2021 election.
In recent months, speculation about new elections has mainly attributed the collapse of the coalition to the FDP. However, with current poll numbers of 4 to 5% nationwide, the Liberals are likely to have the least interest in an early Bundestag election. Unlike previous failed state elections, FDP leader Christian Lindner is not blaming the poor performance of the traffic light coalition for the disaster. Instead, he points out that the east is simply a difficult terrain for the FDP.
While Green Party leader Omid Nouripour has recently referred to the traffic light coalition as a "transitional government," it is almost unthinkable that he or his party would bring an abrupt end to this "transitional phase." The Greens are too convinced of their state-bearing role. In the states where elections are now taking place, they emphasize that they are the only ones who have clearly distanced themselves from the BSW, which questions support for Ukraine. Leaving the coalition at a time when a second presidency of Donald Trump seems possible and Ukraine continues to fight? Unlikely.
Union's entry into the hot phase for deciding the K-question
In the Union, today's election Sunday is seen as the start of the final phase for deciding the K-question - which, according to the leaders of the CDU and CSU, Friedrich Merz and Markus Söder, should be decided in late summer - likely after the state election in Brandenburg on September 22.
Friedrich Merz is generally considered to have the best chances in the Union. Nevertheless, there are fears within the CDU that the Bavarian Minister President could bet on Merz getting into trouble due to possible turbulence in the coming weeks. It is an open secret that Markus Söder still considers himself the best candidate for chancellor.
Tough discussions are expected in the CDU, potentially continuing even after the Brandenburg election. It's plausible that some individuals might push to erode Merz's "barrier" against the AfD, disregarding directives from the CDU headquarters in Berlin, despite straightforward statements.
Merz might encounter challenges relating to the BSW if the CDU cannot avoid partnering with them during government formation. Initially, Merz was just as resistant to collaborating with the BSW as with the AfD. Post-European election in June, he labeled Wagenknecht as "right-wing extremist in certain matters and left-wing extremist in others." However, following pressure from campaigners in the east, Merz revised his stance and deemed the cooperation issue a matter for the states.
The AfD celebrates another milestone
Although the AfD is not predicted to win in both federal states, party leader Alice Weidel still hailed it as a "historic achievement" and a "death knell for this coalition" in her initial response.
The AfD interprets its first position as the strongest party in a German state, attained in Thuringia, as a significant leap towards increasing influence on a national level, building upon its local successes. Currently, the AfD lacks viable options for the Bundestag elections in 2025, as other parties refuse to collaborate with them, labeled as a right-wing extremist threat by the constitutional protection agency. However, the party has its sights set on the 2029 elections. Their strategy is to capitalize on public discontent and acceptance of the AfD by then, hopefully achieving a breakthrough at the federal level.
BSW tries to enter federal politics
Concurrently, Sahra Wagenknecht and her newly formed BSW party are aiming to engage in federal politics. If negotiations for a coalition materialize, the party intends to put forth demands aimed at the federal government. The 55-year-old has listed an end to weapons shipments to Ukraine, more proactive diplomatic initiatives by the federal government, and opposition to the deployment of US missiles in Germany as prerequisites for the BSW's involvement in the Thuringian government.
The AfD's success in the state elections is causing concern for the traffic light coalition, with party leader Alice Weidel celebrating it as a "death knell" for the coalition. The AfD is now almost three times stronger than the traffic light coalition in Thuringia, performing significantly better than the SPD, Greens, and FDP combined.
Given the AfD's increasing influence in Thuringia, their ambitions to expand their influence on a national level in the 2025 Bundestag elections should be closely monitored by the larger political parties.
