Upcoming voting for European representatives - Unions succeed, traffic signals decrease, and the AfD rejoices.
A dismal night for traffic lights: The SPD, Greens, and FDP have together received fewer than one-third of the votes in the initial projections and trail behind the AfD. While the AfD didn't quite reach the level of strength presumed a few months ago, the trend points rightward. And with the Union, there's a clear victor. What do the results from Sunday night imply for federal politics in the forthcoming months?
SPD's dismal outcome also implicates the Chancellor
The SPD of Chancellor Olaf Scholz had already recorded its historically worst outcome in a nationwide election at the 2019 European election, nominating 15.8%. On Sunday night, the initial projections suggested an even lower tally - at 14%. "This is a rather bitter election result for us," said General Secretary Kevin Kühnert in the first reaction.
The result is also a reflection of the Chancellor. He took considerable risks during the campaign, often aligning himself with party leader Katarina Barley and having himself photographed with her. At large events, he showcased himself as a peace advocate, pension-guardian, minimum wage defender, and finally, a hardliner on deporting serious criminals. The historically lowest result reflects his unpaid bills.
Lately, the SPD's election losses allowed silence; no condemnation of the Chancellor, no objections about the party's governing method. However, the question is whether this will persist. Recently, ex-party leader Franz Müntefering astonished everyone with the assumption that the SPD's candidate for Chancellor in the following election had yet to be chosen. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) was most recently considered a potential backup candidate for Chancellor, despite the repeatedly noncommittal remarks.
Will the traffic light coalition witness a revival?
The Green Party leadership swallowed in unison when the first projected 12.5% came up in their election party in the Berlin Columbiahalle at 6 p.m. The caterwauling audience then reacted again, this time with dismay at the AfD's better-than-expected result. The aim of surpassing the AfD was missed by the Greens.
The Greens have longed for political responsibility in the federal government, but their utopia as the innocent hope-giver is now shattered - the heating law is the primary culprit. Compared to the previous European election with a result of 20.5%, the Greens crashed. Their campaign under the "Make a Difference" catchphrase, the alarms of a right-wing shift, and their top list candidate Terry Reintke failed to excite the public. While the Ampel coalition's ire shouldn't be expected, the party has reliably maintained its backing of the coalition.
For the FDP, the overall outcome is another setback, although in the Berlin HQ in the evening, the first forecast of 5% was cheered. It's anticipated that the party leadership in the traffic light coalition will now grow more confrontational and battle for their own stake in the political clash. The Liberals blame the traffic light policy for the supporters' disaffection. Even the combative defence politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, who served as the 'Eurofighter' and was the central figure of the Liberals' election campaign, couldn't reverse the trend.
As a political "rampage beast," she was rebuked by the stock exchanges and endured critics and jeers. Nonetheless, she was spared a drubbing; it looked as though the 5.4% score of the last European election in 2019 would remain.
AfD revels in its success: Outperforming the Chancellor's Party
In the AfD headquarters in northern Berlin, jubilation erupted at 6:00 pm. German flags were waved. A considerable gain of 5 percentage points compared to the last European election in 2019 (11%). Party leader Tino Chrupalla proclaimed the result as significant and was particularly delighted that his party had once again secured the second place over the Chancellor Party SPD.
The right had anticipated a doubling of their result from 2019 merely a few months ago, and it seemed so in early surveys. The values plunged after the large demonstrations resulting from reports of a right-wing gathering in Potsdam, which discussed "remigration." Also, there were weeks of negative headlines about AfD candidate Maximilian Krah and the number two on the AfD list, Petr Bystron. Both were suspected of having connections to Russia, and Krah also had links to China.
The Union celebrates its comeback
The Union's motto was: 'New Unity, New Program,' with a recently re-elected CDU chairman Friedrich Merz, and they won the European election as expected. The CDU luminaries relished the ovation for the traffic light administration. In particular, they were content since the European election was the first national vote since the disastrous 24.1% in the Bundestag in 2021.
However big the celebration in the Union leadership circles, the trees don't grow to the sky for them, as they're currently at a stronghold of 30%. The AfD numbers will surely cause them a bit of discomfort. The CDU/CSU could further emphasize their core theme of security before the September elections in the east.
Within the party, the 30% mark was also considered a key point for the satisfaction with their leader Merz. The potential impact of this result on the internal K question could be rather minimal, as the Sauerlander is currently considered uncontested. CSU leader Markus Söder and North Rhine-Westphalia's Minister President Hendrik Wüst, who are considered possible candidates for the chancellor candidacy, won't have their hopes completely dashed. The Union wants to settle the K question after the elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg.
Before the European election, Sahra Wagenknecht commented that five percent plus would be a "fantastic achievement" for her newly established party, Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht. Turns out, they've managed to secure five to six percent based on initial forecasts. "We've created party history here tonight," said General Secretary Christian Leye in his statement - a party has never achieved such a strong result so quickly after its founding. The BSW won over many with its criticisms of Western military aid for Ukraine and its call for peace negotiations with Russia. Wagenknecht herself attracted thousands of supporters to stages all over the country - even though she didn't run for the European Parliament.
The result represents a promising foundation for the BSW ahead of the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg in September. Although the new party has greater resonance in eastern Germany than in the west, if the AfD becomes powerful in the fall and can't find partners, the BSW could potentially become a governing partner in its earliest year. This would be advantageous for the BSW in the 2025 federal election. Nonetheless, the European election indicates that Wagenknecht is far from representing the so-called "majority" left behind by the established parties.
Wagenknecht's main goal is to make a substantial impact for her former party, the Left. They secured around three percent, still significantly lower than their lackluster performance in 2019, when they garnered five and a half percent. A major disappointment for party leader Martin Schirdewan, who also served as their European top candidate. The upcoming state elections and the next federal election might be the last chances for the Left before they become irrelevant.
