Union and the SPD's BSW faction are experiencing modest gains, while Merz is experiencing setbacks in comparison to Scholz.
In the initial survey conducted by RTL/ntv Trendbarometer post-Friedrich Merz's selection as the Union's potential chancellor, the Union is displaying a positive trend. The Union is seeing an improvement in the Sunday poll, their competency scores, and in the comparison of chiller candidates. Even the Wagenknecht party is experiencing a minor surge.
The Union, specifically the CDU and CSU, have named Friedrich Merz as their primary candidate for the 2025 federal election. In the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, these parties and Merz are witnessing a slight surge: The Union has gained an additional percent, while the Wagenknecht alliance is also up by the same margin. However, the Left party is losing ground below the 3% support mark and no longer qualifies for tracking due to its movements falling within the 2.5% margin of error. This decline is evident in the Left's recent expulsion from a state parliament in Brandenburg.
If a general election were held this week, the parties could anticipate the following support: CDU/CSU (32%), AfD (17%), SPD (15%), Greens (11%), and BSW (7%). The FDP is projected to gain 4%, with 14% of respondents supporting other unnamed parties. This is an increase of one point since last week.
The primary concerns among respondents were the Middle East conflict (30%), followed closely by the Ukraine war (28%). Flooding was a significant worry for 25% of respondents, while 24% cited the federal government, and 22% pointed to the economic situation. Among other frequently discussed topics were migration (21%), east state elections (20%), and the Union's chancellor candidacy (14%). Additional concerns included the US presidential campaign (11%), climate and environment (9%), and internal security (6%).
Economic expectations improved only slightly: 14% anticipate an improvement, down one point from last week. 23% expect the economic situation to remain the same, with a 2-point increase. 60% believe the economy will worsen, dropping one percent.
Regarding party competence in solving problems, the Union scored a 22% increase in respondents naming them, while the SPD, AfD, and Greens all experienced a one-point decrease, standing at 8%, 7%, and 6% respectively. The FDP remained steadfast at 1%, while mentions of other parties declined by two points to 3%. A staggering 53% of respondents lacked trust in any party's ability to solve issues, an increase of three points from last week.
Following last week's drop in Merz's approval ratings due to premature migration talks with the federal government, Merz has reclaimed his lead over Scholz. In the hypothetical federal chancellor election, 28% would vote for Merz, a 2-point gain. Scholz, the incumbent, has lost the same number of points, now sitting at 24% - four points behind Merz. An unchanged 48% of respondents do not want either as chancellor.
In the East, Merz leads with a clear 25-19% advantage. In West Germany, Scholz holds 24% and Merz boasts 28%. Among Union supporters, 63% prefer Merz, while 10% favor Scholz. Among SPD supporters, 71% elect to keep Scholz as chancellor, with only 4% wishing for Merz as head of government. 27% of Union supporters are undecided on either, while 25% of SPD supporters cannot support either.
Data for the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer was compiled by Forsa on behalf of RTL Deutschland between September 17 and 23. The sample size was 2500 respondents, with a statistical error tolerance of plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. More details on Forsa can be found by clicking here. Forsa conducts polling for RTL Deutschland.
The SPD, as part of the coalition government, holds a 15% support in the current polls. Despite the Union's positive trend and Friedrich Merz's strong showing as their potential chancellor candidate, the SPD still remains one of the major parties in Germany.
In the competition for the chancellor role, incumbent Olaf Scholz from the SPD trails behind Friedrich Merz from the SPD's coalition partner the Union, with Merz securing 28% support and Scholz at 24%.
