Under what circumstances does a decrease in temperature by up to 35 degrees offer any benefit?
Weather.com: Summer's resurgence is strong - howlong will this heatwave continue?
As of now, weather forecasts are showing some discrepancies. Originally, it appeared that temperatures would significantly drop coming Thursday, potentially ushering in autumn by the weekend. However, recent assessments of the weather situation have presented a different picture.
What's leading to this variation?
Currently, weather models are facing challenges with a potential drop in cold air over Scotland. This is a high-pressure system in the upper atmosphere that's having a significant influence on our temperature curve and the overall direction of the weather.
Why is this happening?
The positioning of this low-pressure system in the coming days will dictate whether we'll witness an early autumn or continue in the hot summer phase. Given the current situation, summer could still prolong its stay, while some areas might experience a shift to autumn weather. This development, undoubtedly, carries both excitement and importance, considering the severe heat stress in some regions and the potential relief it could bring. Additionally, other weather-related concerns may lose their urgency with a shift in seasons.
What are these concerns?
The impact of the ongoing drought on the eastern regions. As a result, danger levels of forest fires will reach the highest category (5) in certain areas east of the Elbe by midweek. Even the smallest spark or open fire could lead to severe consequences. Meanwhile, the rest of the country will persist in experiencing humid to hot air, sometimes accompanied by heavy downpours, as witnessed on Monday when thunderstorms poured 20 to 40 liters of rain per square meter, causing flooding.
How will the storms develop?
Temperatures will dip slightly at night from Tuesday to Wednesday, before stronger storms from the southwest make an appearance. It will remain warm to tropical, with overnight lows ranging between 13 to 21 degrees.
And by Wednesday?
The storms will intensify and are expected to form a line extending from the Alps to the Ore Mountains, and reaching Schleswig-Holstein by the afternoon and evening. There's a risk of extreme weather conditions including heavy rain, hail, and strong winds. Rainfall accumulations can reach 40 to 80 liters per square meter in a short span, which roughly equates to an entire month's worth of rain in some places. Towards the east, it will remain dry and extremely hot.
What temperatures should we anticipate?
Initially, temperatures will hover around 30 degrees. However, the heat center will shift to the east on Wednesday and Thursday, peaking at 35 degrees in some areas.
Do these temperatures break any records?
Although it's unlikely to attain the all-time record (36.5 degrees from September 1911 at the Jena Observatory), the event will still be extraordinary, marking one of the highest September temperatures in the past 70 years.
What do the projections predict after Thursday and Friday?
Storms are likely to retreat to the southwest on those days. The rest of the country can look forward to days of sunshine and almost entirely dry summer weather, with comfortable temperatures of about 24 degrees in the west and up to 32 degrees in the east.
What trends are we looking at for the weekend?
The situation is unclear. There's still a chance we might experience early autumn weather. However, most forecasts are leaning towards continuing summer-like conditions. If that's the case, we can anticipate sunshine and pleasant weather, with the occasional thunderstorms, mainly in the west. The estimated temperatures will be between 24 to 31 degrees.
Despite the initial forecast suggesting a cool down by Thursday, challenges in weather models due to a high-pressure system over Scotland are causing uncertainty. This high-pressure system is influencing the temperature curve and potentially prolonging the heatwave, which may still be strong during the weekend, with temperatures ranging from 24 to 31 degrees.
