Ukraine's strategizing in Kursk: Unveiling their intentions.
Thousands of Ukrainian forces have invaded Russian territory for close to three weeks, striking Putin's supposed boundary on August 6. Ukrainian troops, equipped with tanks, seized and occupied around 1,200 square kilometers of the Kursk region, surpassing Berlin in size. For two weeks, military analysts pondered the objective behind the daring yet perilous offensive.
Last Sunday, Volodymyr Zelenskyy finally unveiled the explanation for the first time. Ukraine intends to establish a "no-man's land" on foreign soil, according to the Ukrainian president. Essentially, Ukrainian soldiers crossed the border to ward off potential Russian attacks from the northern frontier and bolster their position within their homeland.
The sudden assault, penetrating up to 35 kilometers deep into Russian territory according to Ukrainian sources, is a substantial moral victory for Ukraine, its armed forces, and its populace. The offensive has further boosted support from Western allies. The advance demonstrates Ukraine's capability to coordinate large-scale operations with integrated weaponry and achieves tactical air cover. "Ukraine has repeatedly tested the boundaries set by the West since the war's commencement and has continued to push them. This is especially evident in Kursk," states Stefan Meister, a Russia expert from the German Society for Foreign Policy (DGAP), in an interview with ntv. "Ultimately, it has always been the case that the Americans and the Germans grant Ukraine more freedom. If they had done so earlier, Ukraine would not be in such a precarious military position."
Ukraine demolishes bridges
An achievement previously considered impossible has now been accomplished. The brief yet successful incursion into Russian soil signifies significant operational improvements within the Ukrainian military, according to the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The Kursk offensive is significantly different from the ineffective summer offensive last year.
The cooperation between various military divisions, such as artillery, armor, electronic warfare, drone support, and elite units like the 80th Airborne Brigade, contributed to the initial surprise success in the Kursk region.
However, what comes next is unknown. "Ukraine is now focusing on maintaining its hold on the captured territory," explains Colonel Markus Reisner of the Austrian Armed Forces on ntv. "This means that Ukraine is switching from the offensive to the defensive to purchase time and prepare for potential Russian counterattacks." Along the Seim River which bisects the Kursk region, Ukraine has initiated the destruction of bridges. "This river provides a promising defensive line against potential Russian assaults," analyzes Reisner.
In addition, Ukraine is attempting to preserve its supply and logistics routes by delivering ammunition, equipment, and reinforcements. However, this task may prove challenging for Kyiv's forces due to Russia's air supremacy and the troops' limited access to heavy engineering equipment.
More than 120,000 Russians evacuated
The longer Ukrainian forces remain in Kursk, the more problematic the situation could become for Russian leader Vladimir Putin. As the Ukrainian invasion brings devastation to Russia, this is likely one of the goals of the operation.
Moscow has already evacuated around 120,000 Russians from the Kursk region due to the Ukrainian assault. Conscripts are now required to participate in the conflict. Despite Putin's initial pledge to spare conscripts from the war, footage emerged of them at the border being captured by Ukrainian forces. "This was a promise the Kremlin made," states ntv correspondent Rainer Munz from Russia. "However, we noticed that conscripts were present at the border during the beginning of the attack on Kursk and were later depicted as prisoners of war on Ukrainian television and social media."
Russian exile media alleges that conscripts are being coerced to enlist as volunteer soldiers for a period of one year. According to Munz, this is unlikely to produce a large wave of recruitment to avoid causing unrest in the country. "That would cause significant concern among many parents in Russia."
Possible massive bombings
As of yet, Russian forces have failed to regain control over Kursk. Estimates suggest that Ukraine has deployed between 5,000 and 6,000 soldiers to the region. If Russia wishes to reclaim the territory, it would require approximately 20,000 to 25,000 soldiers for a counterattack, according to Colonel Reisner's estimate. Moscow has yet to commit such resources, but this is a viable scenario in the immediate future. Similarly, Russia could drive the Ukrainians back with an overwhelming display of force through intense aerial bombings.
"Russia may simply opt for a wait-and-see approach and bomb Ukraine to an extent that forces a retreat across the border," Reisner presents the worst-case scenario from Ukraine's perspective. In this case, Ukraine would have expended significant resources that could have been used more effectively in Donbass. "However, this remains purely speculation for now. We shall simply have to wait and see within the next few weeks."
Though military experts aren't convinced that establishing a buffer zone is Ukraine's sole objective. Reisner shares a similar view: Ukraine sees additional prospects in the Kursk assault, such as a better footing for potential ceasefire negotiations at some point in the future.
This, however, implies that Ukraine would need to govern and safeguard the area for several months, if not years. In terms of logistics, this is an enormously daunting task - making success unlikely. As Mr. Ralph Thiele, a military expert, mentioned in the ntv interview, "Right now, it's not feasible because it's uncertain whether Ukraine can maintain these territorial victories against Russia." The Ukrainians have taken the Russians by surprise with the Kursk assault, managed to penetrate Russia, and have a certain degree of freedom. However, that freedom is gradually diminishing, and they are now digging in.
The outcome of the Kursk operation will only be clear in the coming weeks. If Kyiv manages to push Russian soldiers to pullback from other critical points in Donbass by crossing the border, it could potentially gain an advantage on a broader front. However, the Russian offensives in Donbass have yet to weaken. The U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that the Russian military leadership has even begun to reposition troops from the southern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia to strengthen the defense of Kursk.
General Syrskyi, the Ukrainian commander-in-chief, has stated that the Russians are advancing an average of 4.8 kilometers per day in Donbass, while Ukraine is advancing 3.2 kilometers per day in the Kursk region. This suggests that the Russians' momentum is unbroken, as Reisner points out, highlighting the dilemma. Ukraine now waits to see if Russia will significantly deploy troops in the coming days and weeks to control Kursk from its strategic reserves. If not, the offensive might not be as successful as Ukraine envisioned.
The Ukrainian morale boost from the Kursk offensive might not translate into a strategic-tactical success. The operation is, indeed, impressively risky. However, at least, Kyiv has demonstrated its Western allies that it's worth continuing to support the Ukrainian army.
The attack on Ukraine's territorial incursion into Kursk has raised concerns for potential Russian counterattacks from the northern frontier. To strengthen their position and ward off potential threats, Ukrainian forces have destroyed bridges along the Seim River.
In response to the Russian withdrawal of civilians and conscription of soldiers, Ukrainian troops have managed to maintain their hold on the captured territory, despite facing challenges in delivering supplies and logistics.
