- Ukraine is pressuring Russia with massive attacks
Russia must endure the heaviest counterblows from Kyiv on its own territory in its aggressive war against the Ukraine. Not only in the Kursk region, but throughout ongoing battles between Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, an exceptional situation prevails with many casualties. Ukraine is also targeting Russia with drone attacks, causing explosions, destruction, and many injuries. After being on the defensive in its own country, Ukraine now aims to escalate the war into Russia to strengthen its position for potential negotiations. Here are some questions and answers about the situation and prospects:
What is Ukraine's goal with its attacks on Russia?
"Ukraine aims to seize the initiative through a surprise move and dominance in the information space. It has achieved these tactical goals," said military expert Nico Lange to Deutsche Presse-Agentur. Whether further operational goals can be realized in the Kursk region remains uncertain. "Ukraine has also forced Russian units to move towards Kursk, making them vulnerable during the march," Lange said. He works for the Munich Security Conference and previously served as chief of the leadership staff in the German Defense Ministry. Ukraine has inflicted heavy losses on Russian units in ambushes.
One possible goal is to create a border-proximate security zone to minimize Russian shelling of its territory, as suggested by Ukrainian political scientist Wolodymyr Fessenko on Facebook. Militarily, Ukraine could tie up Russian forces and relieve other front sections, as seen in the Charkiv region or the embattled Donetsk front.
However, Fessenko also believes it's about proving something to allies: "The Ukrainian advance into the Kursk region is also a demonstration to the Americans that attacks on Russian territory should not be feared." This could potentially lead to the approval of using their weapons on Russian soil.
What are the prospects of success for the advance in Kursk?
Experts from the U.S. Institute for War Studies (ISW) write that Ukrainian soldiers have advanced up to 35 kilometers beyond their border, without controlling the entire area. Other military experts argue that due to limited forces of a few hundred men with light armored technology, Ukrainian troops are unlikely to permanently establish themselves on a larger area.
Advances towards the Kursk nuclear power plant in Kurtschatov, around 60 kilometers from the border, are also unlikely due to the constant threat of Russian air and artillery attacks, and the need for combat-ready, motivated soldiers, armored technology, and artillery in other front sections, as many observers, particularly Ukrainian ones, have critically noted.
The success of the operation, the full extent of which will likely become apparent in the coming days, is also tied to the career of army commander-in-chief Olexander Syrskyj, as military journalist Mychajlo Schyrochow in Kyiv pointed out. Syrskyj took command in February and has faced increasing criticism due to constant territorial losses in eastern Ukraine.
How is the West reacting?
In May, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and US President Joe Biden orchestrated a shift in Ukraine policy, allowing the use of supplied weapons against targets in Russia. However, the German government had not evaluated the subsequent Ukrainian advance by Friday afternoon. Marcus Faber (FDP), chairman of the Defense Committee in the Bundestag, saw no issue with the deployment of German weapons, stating, "Once handed over to Ukraine, they become Ukrainian weapons. This applies to all material, including the Leopard 2." He argued that with the Russian attack on Ukraine, the territory of both states has become a war zone, and the use of weapons is governed by international law, giving Ukraine the right to attack the aggressor's territory in its defensive struggle.
What does the counterattack mean for Western support?
It seems unlikely that the cross-border use of force could turn the tide, yet it binds Russian forces and may also divert attention from other fronts. For Ukraine, it's a milestone with an uncertain outcome, while for Moscow's leadership, it's a humiliation. The West has consistently emphasized its support for Ukraine's decisions in its defensive struggle against the invasion.
How is Russia reacting?
Russia's air defense is now in constant operation due to Ukrainian drone and missile attacks, including on the annexed Crimean Peninsula. The Ministry of Defense is significantly reinforcing its troops in the Kursk region due to heavy fighting. The state of emergency has been upgraded to a nationwide state of emergency. Meanwhile, air strikes are being launched against the neighboring Sumy region, which Ukraine is using as a staging area for its advance. Alongside countering attacks from neighboring countries, Moscow continues its offensives in the annexed regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk, with the Ministry of Defense reporting further gains.
What does this advance mean for Russia's war of aggression?
Russia is facing intense pressure like never before. President Vladimir Putin started the war against Ukraine, in part, to secure his country's safety and stability, citing threats from a potential NATO membership for Kyiv. Once again, the border regions are bearing the brunt, with many people losing their belongings and feeling shocked and disillusioned, even according to officials. People must once again witness how Putin's war threatens their lives, making the nuclear power vulnerable despite Kremlin assurances.
Observers in Russia believe that the new challenges may mobilize even more volunteers for frontline service. Recently, regions and Putin have significantly increased financial incentives for signing contracts for military service.
What does the situation mean for possible peace negotiations?
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the country is seeking negotiations for a just peace. His advisor, Mychajlo Podoljak, suggested that successes in Kursk could strengthen the negotiating position. Moscow will only become more open to talks if the cost of the war increases in terms of "losses in people, military equipment, and territories of the Russian Federation," he said in Ukrainian television.
From a Russian perspective, negotiations seem to be receding even further. The country is preparing for a very prolonged conflict. Deputy Chairman of the National Security Council and former President Dmitri Medvedev stated that Ukraine should brace itself for further territorial losses, including the regions of Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa, and even Kyiv.
Facebook user Wolodymyr Fessenko suggests that Ukraine's advance into the Kursk region is also a demonstration to its allies on Facebook, aiming to prove that attacks on Russian territory should not be feared, potentially leading to the approval of using their weapons on Russian soil. Despite Ukraine's progress, achieving operational goals in the Kursk region remains uncertain, according to military expert Nico Lange.
