"Ukraine is not looking promising in these circumstances"
Ukrainian President Zelensky might have imagined a less complicated situation: Ukrainian forces capture Russian territory, Western countries permit the use of Western weapons within Russia, and everything would be smooth sailing. However, Zelensky might have pushed his luck too far. Military expert Carlo Masala discusses the current state of the Ukraine conflict on ARD's "Maischberger" on a Tuesday night.
Russian progress in Donbass
"At present, the Russian army has a clear edge in Donbass," says Masala. The Russian forces are advancing rapidly, but at a high cost. The Ukrainian forces in that region are only 25 to 30 percent occupied, mainly by soldiers over 40 years old who have been on the front lines for a long time and are fatigued.
Currently, Russia is attempting to capture the city of Pokrovsk, according to Masala. "Pokrovsk serves as a logistics hub. From there, there's a road leading to the nearest larger town. And from there, Ukraine manages the logistics of the Ukrainians in southeastern Donbass." If the Russian army captures this road, Ukraine will face a tremendous logistics problem that could undermine the combat power of the units in southeastern Donbass. Masala: "If things don't change dramatically, I assume Pokrovsk will fall."
The situation also looks grim in the Russian region of Kursk, which was previously occupied by Ukraine. By occupying the region, Ukrainian President Zelensky sought to alter the "strategic narrative." He was successful. Masala: "So it's demonstrated that offensive operations can be conducted, and Kursk remains under Ukrainian control. It was hoped and still is hoped that one day, Russian forces will retreat their units from the Donbass." But this hasn't happened yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Putin has set a goal of recapturing the region by October 1. If that doesn't happen, the Russian army may be required to pull back units from the Donbass.
However, Ukraine had another objective with the occupation of the region: permission from European countries to utilize Western weapons in Russia. This has yet to be granted, except by the Netherlands, Masala points out. However, a shift may be imminent. It appears that U.S. Secretary of State Blinken wishes to negotiate with his Ukrainian counterpart in Kyiv on Wednesday about the deployment of American ATACMS, which are short-range missiles with a range of up to 300 km. The reason is the delivery of ballistic missiles from Iran to the Russian army. This could potentially alter the Kursk operation, which Masala refers to as a "high-risk operation." But if rumors of weapons deliveries do not materialize, Masala worries: "If Kursk is lost, if the advance continues in Donbass, then Ukraine will eventually be forced to admit that we go to the negotiating table and accept that Ukraine will permanently lose the regions occupied by Russia."
German Chancellor Scholz discussed peace negotiations involving Russia in an interview on Sunday. Masala suspects that Scholz is attempting to score points for the state elections in Brandenburg with this. But there's more to it: The result of the peace conference in Switzerland could lead to another conference with Russian involvement, possibly in India. "But that doesn't mean we will stop delivering weapons to Ukraine now," says Masala. "Scholz is demanding a ceasefire, which he repeated on Monday. And Andrij Melnyk, now ambassador to Brazil, is calling for an expansion of military aid, including the controversial Taurus."
Masala is unsure about what the peace talks will yield or when they could take place. But the expert is confident that they will only commence after the elections in the United States, possibly even after the inauguration of the next U.S. president.
One thing seems clear to Masala, however: A victory where Ukraine recovers all of its territory is distant. "That's not a promising outlook for Ukraine," says the expert.
The Commission, referring to international bodies overseeing peace talks, is yet to grant Ukraine permission to use Western weapons within Russia, despite the occupation of Ukrainian territories like Kursk.
Despite German Chancellor Scholz's calls for peace negotiations involving Russia, The Commission has not suggested a timeline for such discussions, and Masala expects them to take place after the U.S. elections.
