Ukraine dominates the battle for the Black Sea
There has been hardly any movement on the war front in Ukraine for months. Things are going much better for Kiev's troops in the Black Sea. The Russians have withdrawn their warships and are "only" firing from afar. Ukraine has regained control.
On the mainland, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to take on the Russians. There is a lack of ammunition and war equipment for major territorial gains. Time is playing in Russia's favor. The situation is different at sea: In the Black Sea, Ukraine has pushed back the Russian attackers and regained control.
The first major blow is the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Moskva in April 2022. Two months later, at the end of June, Ukraine celebrates its next success when the Russian occupiers flee from the Ukrainian Snake Island. This is a tiny but strategically important spot in the west of the Black Sea, 35 kilometers off the Ukrainian coast.
In September, Kiev's troops attack Russian submarines in the port of Sevastopol in the illegally annexed Crimea with British cruise missiles. At the end of October, the Ukrainians pulled off their next coup at sea when they attacked the Russian military base with ultra-modern remote-controlled ship drones. Ukraine also attacks the Kerch Bridge, which connects Crimea with Russia. In July of this year, the bridge was again attacked with drones.
At the beginning of August, Ukraine attacked a Russian tanker. The drone tore an eight-metre-wide hole in the side of the tanker, which was transporting fuel for Russia's troops to Crimea.
In mid-September, the Ukrainians landed another strike against the military base in Sevastopol. A few days later, the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea was also bombed again. "That was very impressive from a tactical-strategic point of view, because the Russians control all operations in the Black Sea from their Crimean headquarters. They also control what happens on the southern front from here," commented Cedric Leighton, former US Air Force colonel, on CNN.
Most of the Black Sea Fleet away from Crimea
The Russians have long since withdrawn the majority of their Black Sea fleet from Crimea, reports the Wall Street Journal, among others, and refers to satellite images that show that a number of submarines and ships of the Russian navy have been relocated to other Black Sea ports.
Most recently, the American Institute for the Scientific Study of War (ISW) reported that all other warships and missile carriers had also been removed from the main port in Sevastopol. The reason for this is the severe winter storms in the region, according to the Ukraine.
However, the Ukrainian magazine "Defense News", citing Kiev's partisan group Atesh, found out that part of the Russian Crimean war fleet was moved just a few kilometers away from Sevastopol to the so-called quarantine bay.
Nevertheless, it is clear that Kiev's armed forces are once again dominating the Black Sea and that Ukraine is on its way to at least winning the naval battle. And without a functioning classic navy. Instead, Kiev is relying on "daring commando attacks and a combination of drones and long-range cruise missiles from the West", analyzes the American think tank Atlantic Council.
The Black Sea as an economic factor
The Black Sea is of great strategic importance to Ukraine for several reasons. Kiev is pursuing two goals: On the one hand, it wants to end the naval blockade of the ports in the southwest of the country. On the other hand, Ukraine wants to prevent Putin's troops from receiving supplies by sea.
The Black Sea is also important in economic terms. It is the most important trade route for Kiev, primarily for the many millions of tons of grain from Ukraine. Rail transport to the west is therefore not a good alternative because Ukrainian railroad lines have a different track gauge to those in Poland or Romania, for example.
The grain agreement between Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations lasted a good year before the Kremlin pulled out in June of this year. Since then, even civilian ships in the Black Sea have no longer been safe. After withdrawing from the agreement, Moscow announced that it would classify all ships bound for Ukraine as "potentially carrying military cargo".
New grain corridor
But since September there has been a new grain corridor, even without Russia's involvement. The route runs along the south-western coast of Ukraine, then past the Romanian coast and through Turkish territorial waters to the Bosporus. Ukraine has made the Black Sea a little safer again because it has won "an important phase of the battle for the Black Sea", according to military analyst Cedric Leighton on CNN.
During the period of the agreement, more than 1,000 ships had transported grain through the Black Sea from three Ukrainian ports within a year. Almost 33 million tons of grain and other foodstuffs left Ukraine in this way. Most of it went to developing countries.
Since the start of the new corridor, just over 130 ships have been sent through the Black Sea from Ukraine in just under three months - with more than 5 million tons of cargo on board.
All of this was only possible because Ukraine managed to regain control at sea. For the moment at least, things are looking good in the Black Sea from the Ukrainian perspective. However, the Russian naval forces have not yet been defeated, analyzes the "Institute for the Study of War". Especially as the Russians are still relying on their long-range missiles, which can strike anywhere in the Black Sea. As in November, when a civilian ship from Liberia was hit by a Russian missile as it entered the port of Odessa, killing one person.
Although the Black Sea Fleet was "weakened", it is still too early to speak of a Ukrainian victory in the Black Sea, analyzes the ISW. Nevertheless, the situation at sea is significantly better than on land.
Source: www.ntv.de
