Ukraine becomes a problem for eastern CDU

The Federal-CDU stands clearly on the side of Ukraine and puts pressure on Chancellor Scholz to provide more weapons. However, the result of the European election shows: In the east, this is not a successful factor.

Quiz question: Who are the three most important figures of the CDU this summer? Party chairman Friedrich Merz is not one of them, nor is General Secretary Carsten Linnemann. Nor does North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst count among them. In this summer, the most important CDU politicians are Mario Voigt, Jan Redmann, and Michael Kretschmer. In their federal states Thuringia, Brandenburg, and Saxony, state elections are taking place in September. All three want to make the CDU the strongest force. Voigt and Redmann want to become Minister-Presidents, Kretschmer wants to stay. So far, so normal.

However, there is a difference from previous years. The SPD is currently popular with voters. The Left is only a shadow of itself in its stronghold Thuringia. For this reason, the AfD is the strongest force in all three federal states according to surveys. The European election confirmed: Eastern Germany was a blue sea on the election maps.

This trend should not be confirmed at the state elections. The CDU remains the only party left that could prevent a landslide victory of the AfD. This will be difficult enough. However, the three state chairmen Voigt, Redmann, and Kretschmer have an unexpected opponent: their own Federal-Party.

West-CDU versus Ost-CDU

The reason for this is the attitude towards Ukraine. CDU leader Merz made this clear: His party stands with Kiev. "Without freedom, there is no peace," Merz said at the party conference in early May. What he meant: no compromises with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Bundestag, the traffic light coalition put pressure on weapons deliveries. Multiple times, it demanded the delivery of the Taurus missile system. The CDU and CSU stand exactly where one expects them: for freedom, against Russia, clear in NATO. This is good news for all those who see a danger and more than just a stack of paper in Russia.

One could also say: The CDU is acting completely western. For in the Thuringian Forest, in Voigtland, or in the Uckermark, one looks at the world differently than in Munsterland, in the Taunus, or in Franconia. The differences between east and west on this issue were illustrated in an Forsa survey for ntv in June.

At first glance, they are not so extreme: In the west, there are more of those who find the support for Ukraine correct (East: 34%, West: 42%). However, the trend in the east is clear: in the same survey from April, approval there was 7 points higher. In the June survey, 40% in the east also said that the help was too high, compared to 29% in the west. To the whole picture belongs also: In the east, the number of those who wish for more support for Ukraine is growing. The value rose from 18 to 21%. In the west, it sank slightly to 24%.

The survey also illustrates how much AfD and FW has taken up this topic. 84% of AfD supporters and 70% of FW supporters found the aid too extensive.

Exactly these two parties celebrated successes at the European election. The AfD became the strongest force in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg. The FW came with two-digit values from nowhere to third place in each state.

## It's Also About Money in One's Own Wallet

A factor in this: Ukraine. It's not just about freedom, peace order, or international law. It's mainly about the money in one's own pocket. The Russian attack and the stopping of gas deliveries to Germany were the driving forces for the rapid price increases of the past two years. To curb inflation, the European Central Bank raised interest rates. This made credits more expensive - for companies, but also for homeowners.

Anxiety about business operations, no more chance of owning a home, and at the same time anxiety about escalation - this concerns both West and East Germans. However, there is more concern in the East. The economy there is more fragile: The DAX corporations are all in the West, wages are lower, savings are smaller. In addition, there is a greater understanding for Russia.

Michael Kretschmer, Saxony's Minister-President, is a spokesman for this mood. He repeatedly advocates very Russia-friendly tones. For example, with the demand to get the Nord Stream 1 pipeline operational again to buy Russian gas. The Brandenburg CDU leader Redmann defended this in an interview with ntv.de: "I believe that we should allow Michael Kretschmer and perhaps Eastern Germany as a whole to have a somewhat differentiated view of Russia." In reference to the GDR era: "The contacts were closer."

Whoever wants to win voters back who are AfD voters in the Ukraine issue must find a way to reconcile the desire for negotiations and the determined support for Ukraine under one hat. The Thuringian CDU leader Voigt tried it over ntv.de in this way: "A dictator who kills people in his own country and even in Germany cannot be a partner. That's understood by everyone I talk to." He warned of a "huge exodus" if "Putin wins." At the same time, he also demanded more diplomatic efforts - like those who believe Putin would then actually withdraw his troops. Ultimately, the East CDU is sitting between two chairs.

Cancel Citizen's Income for Young Ukrainians?

This dilemma can sometimes take desperate turns. This was evident over the past weekend. Brandenburg's Interior Minister Michael Stübgen, a CDU politician, took up a CSU proposal. His demand: Young Ukrainians in Germany should have their citizen's income withdrawn if they can perform military service in their homeland. With this, he kills two birds with one stone: He calls for refugees to return. This could appeal to AfD sympathizers who want to win the CDU back. At the same time, he expresses the wish of the Ukrainian government, which wants these young men back. This fits the course of the Federal CDU.

However, there is one problem. Stübgen's proposal is hardly implementable. Redmann, his state leader, criticized this in an interview with ntv.de as what distinguishes the CDU from populists like the AfD. "We develop solutions that work in practice," he said. A good approach for any serious party. But sometimes it's hard to implement.

In the upcoming state elections in Thuringia, Brandenburg, and Saxony, CDU politicians Michael Kretschmer, Jan Redmann, and Mario Voigt aim to make the CDU the strongest party, with Voigt and Redmann seeking to become Minister-Presidents and Kretschmer wanting to remain in his current role.
The AfD is currently the strongest force in all three states, according to surveys, suggesting a potential challenge for the CDU to prevent a landslide victory.
A divide within the CDU exists, with some, like Merz, advocating strong support for Ukraine, while others, such as Kretschmer and Redmann, have taken more Russia-friendly tones, particularly regarding the reactivation of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.
The dynamics of the Ukraine issue, combined with concerns about the economy, have led to successes for the AfD and FW in the European elections, with both parties expressing support for more limited aid to Ukraine.