Situation at a glance - Tug of war over Gaza deal - warning of new war
During the Gaza War, indirect negotiations for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange are set to continue next week. The United Nations in New York have warned of an escalation of the Middle East conflict. Increasing gunfire exchanges between Hezbollah militia and Israel along the Lebanon border have increased the "risk of a full-blown war," the UN stated.
Hisbollah Attacks on Northern Israel
Shortly beforehand, Hisbollah had fired several rockets towards Northern Israel, according to the Israeli military. Some of them were intercepted, while others had landed in various areas. Two soldiers were reportedly lightly injured. In response, the Israeli artillery targeted areas in Southern Lebanon. Combat aircraft also attacked a missile launching site and an observation post of Hisbollah, according to the Israeli military. The Israeli military's statements could not be independently verified at first.
"An escalation must and can be avoided. We reiterate once again that the risk of miscalculation, which could lead to a wider and more intense conflagration, is real," the UN stated. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke on the phone with his Israeli counterpart Joav Galant about the "persisting threat" from Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah and reaffirmed the "unwavering commitment of the United States to Israel's security and its right to self-defense," according to the Pentagon.
Gaza Negotiations to Resume
Meanwhile, Israel and the Islamic Hamas have resumed indirect talks over a ceasefire in the Gaza War. After the return of Israeli delegation leader David Barnea, Chief of the Foreign Intelligence Service Mossad, from initial talks with the mediators in Doha, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave the green light for the continuation of negotiations in the coming week, according to his office. Disagreements between the two parties still exist, it was reported.
Since Israel and Hamas do not negotiate directly with each other, Qatar, Egypt, and the US serve as mediators. The talks had reached a deadlock, as the Hamas had linked the release of around 120 Israeli hostages in their custody to the end of the war in the Gaza Strip by Israel. The resumption of talks came about, as the Islamists had signaled some flexibility.
A proposed and largely approved phased plan, presented by the mediating states, includes a time-limited ceasefire as well as the exchange of female, elderly, and sick hostages for a larger number of Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons during the ceasefire. During the ceasefire, the parties are to negotiate the end of the war and the release of the remaining hostages.
Battling over the Phases of the Ceasefire Plan
The latest movement in the complicated negotiation process came about because the Hamas now seems willing to adhere to a roadmap. At the same time, the Islamists are insisting on a written commitment from the mediators that the negotiation phase - and thus the limited truce - will continue indefinitely if no agreement is reached within the designated timeframe, according to Israeli journalist Barak Ravid in the portal "walla.co.il."
Mossad Director Barnea made it clear to his Qatari host in Doha that Israel cannot accept this condition, Ravid wrote, citing two government officials familiar with the matter. The mediators are now trying to find formulations to bridge this gap. "This is the last hurdle that needs to be overcome to reach the actual negotiations for a deal on the release of hostages," so Ravid. Many hostages may already be dead.
Pressure on Hamas is growing
The fact that Israel has brought the so-called Philadelphi Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip under its control has contributed to pushing the Hamas back to the negotiation table, said Amos Jadlin, a former head of the Israeli Military Intelligence, to the Wall Street Journal. The Philadelphi Corridor refers to a narrow strip along the Gaza side of the border with Egypt, which is crucial for controlling this border. Israel suspects that the Hamas has so far been supplied through tunnels that run under the border.
In addition, there is growing pressure on the Hamas leadership from the residents of the Gaza Strip, who have to endure the massive destruction, displacement, and the collapse of law and order in the area, wrote the newspaper further. According to the health authority controlled by Hamas, around 38,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed. This number includes both fighters and civilians.
It remains to be seen whether the military leadership of Hamas, hiding in tunnels under the sealed coastal region, is ready to yield, wrote the Wall Street Journal. Hamas is "not completely cut off from what is happening on earth," said Gershon Baskin, who was previously involved in negotiations with the Hamas, to the newspaper. But even for Israel, a suitable moment for a deal could have come, declared Ofer Shelah, a military analyst at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, to the US newspaper.
Israel's government under pressure
Israel is on the verge of completing its military operation in Rafah in the south of Gaza, which it sees as the last bastion of Hamas and where the Philadelphi Corridor is located. Although this is not the end of Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip. The military and Israeli intelligence services are now increasingly concerned about an escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah in the north, reported the newspaper further. Under these circumstances, the military and Israeli intelligence services are pressing the Netanyahu government to make a deal with Hamas, it was said.
In Israel, there are concerns that Netanyahu may once again withhold his approval in upcoming phases of negotiations due to consideration for his ultra-religious and far-right coalition partners. These partners oppose potential concessions, such as ending the war before a complete destruction of Hamas, and threaten to withdraw from the coalition. Mossad officials have reportedly told mediators that they are "optimistic" that the cabinet will accept the current proposed deal at the end, according to the "Wall Street Journal," quoting an official.
- The indirect negotiations for a ceasefire and prisoner exchange in the Gaza War will continue next week, as warned by the United Nations in New York about the escalation of Middle East conflicts.
- The Israeli military reported several rocket attacks by Hezbollah militia towards Northern Israel, causing two soldiers to be lightly injured.
- In response, the Israeli armed forces targeted areas in Southern Lebanon and attacked a missile launching site and an observation post of Hezbollah.
- The UN stated that an escalation must be avoided, cautioning about the risk of miscalculation leading to a wider and more intense conflict.
- US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Israeli counterpart Joav Galant discussed the "persisting threat" from Iran-backed groups like Hezbollah, reaffirming the USA's commitment to Israel's security and right to self-defense.
- Meanwhile, Israel and Hamas have resumed indirect talks for a ceasefire in the Gaza War, with the USA, Egypt, and Qatar acting as mediators.
- The talks had hit a deadlock, as Hamas had linked the release of around 120 Israeli hostages in their custody to the end of the war in the Gaza Strip by Israel.
- After some flexibility was shown by Hamas, negotiations in the coming week were given the green light by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to his office.
- A phased plan proposed by the mediators includes a time-limited ceasefire, with the exchange of hostages during the truce, followed by negotiations to end the war and release remaining hostages.
- The Hamas is now willing to adhere to a roadmap, but it insists on a written commitment from the mediators that the negotiation phase and limited truce will continue indefinitely.
- Mossad Director David Barnea made it clear to his Qatari host that Israel cannot accept this condition, and the mediators are trying to find formulations to bridge the gap.
- The pressure on Hamas is growing due to Israel's control over the Philadelphi Corridor in the southern Gaza Strip, and the massive destruction, displacement, and law and order collapse in the area.
