Trump's strategies for large-scale deportations could prove expensive. Let me explain why.
Ever since enthusiastic supporters waved "send them back now" signs at the Republican National Convention, Trump and his supporters have consistently expressed different approaches to fulfilling this objective, making it clear it's a significant priority.
Former Immigration and Customs Enforcement chief Tom Homan declared in July that anyone in the country unlawfully should be on high alert, as no one would be spared from scrutiny.
Trump consultant Stephen Miller has advocated for "the biggest domestic deportation operation in US history" and mentioned the inclusion of the military.
Vice presidential candidate JD Vance, on the other hand, believes the initial focus should be on deporting criminals.
Industry specialists suggest that any strategy a potential future Trump administration might choose would be intricate and expensive, considering the vast sums required for executing mass deportation and the considerable economic ripples it would create.
Let's examine some key facts and statistics explaining these challenges.
1,500,000
According to an analysis by the Migration Policy Institute based on government statistics, the number of deportations during Trump's term in office.
Throughout his election campaign and term in office, Trump had repeatedly emphasized that deporting undocumented immigrants would be a top priority. He claimed up to 3 million criminals would be ejected during his time in power. However, the actual number was substantially lower.
In a highly publicized incident, Trump announced a major operation to deport millions of individuals would commence shortly in the summer of 2019. While certain arrests were made, the large-scale raids never materialized.
At a similar pace, the Biden administration is projected to match the Trump administration's deportation numbers, according to the Migration Policy Institute's analysis.
“Considering the absence of any dearth of political will to deport individuals during the ICE years under the Obama administration, and the maximum number of removals achieved in a single year being 267,000,” remarks John Sandweg, an acting director of the agency during the Obama administration.
Advisors and allies supporting Trump stated earlier this year that they have established a viable blueprint to swiftly implement his immigration policy plans, drawing on lessons learned from his previous tenure in office.
Why didn't Trump deport more individuals during his term in office?
Experts pointed out then, as they do now, that the high costs and complex logistics make mass deportation more daunting than campaign promises suggest.
“Implementing such a scheme is nearly impossible,” asserts Laura Collins, an immigration policy specialist at the George W. Bush Presidential Center.
Sandweg adds that even deporting 1 million individuals in a year, a proposition made by vice presidential candidate JD Vance, is impractical.
“Peddling an illusion to people,” he says.
$10,900
The expense of apprehending, housing, processing, and removing a single undocumented immigrant from the United States in 2016, according to figures provided by ICE at the time.
In that same year, ICE likewise stated the cost of transporting a deportee back to their homeland was $1,978.
Since then, expenses have risen, as Sandweg confirms, due to the influx of migrants hailing from various countries.
“We now have a broader migration from all around the world,” he says.
As a result, deportation flights are more expensive and the planning involved is more intricate.
To what extent would deporting the estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants residing in the United States cost?
In 2015, an analysis authored by Collins for the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank, estimated the price of detaining and deporting all undocumented immigrants from the US would be at least $100 billion and would take 20 years. More recent assessments from immigrant advocates put the cost at over $960 billion, given that 1 million undocumented immigrants are deported annually.
Both analyses assumed the undocumented immigrant population to be around 11 million people and anticipated that 20% of the population might opt to voluntarily leave the country. A Pew Research Center report in July suggested that the undocumented population had grown over the previous two years.
$992 million
The allotted budget for "soft-sided" temporary detention centers along the border by the Department of Homeland Security for fiscal year 2023.
Miller, Trump's advisor, has argued that a mass deportation operation would necessitate the construction of substantial facilities for immigrant detention, capable of housing up to 70,000 individuals—over 10 times the capacity of the temporarily-equipped facilities in the proposed 2023 budget. Miller has also described the plan to construct new detention spaces as "greater than any national infrastructure project we've undertaken to date."
Maintaining a soft-sided shelter can amount to up to $40 million per month, according to Jason Houser, a former ICE Chief of Staff.
“It’s not simply a matter of erecting a tent,” he stresses. “I must staff it, provide security, staff it with doctors, establish sanitation, arrange for medics, and provide childcare.”
Utilizing extra space in county and local jail facilities as an alternative to constructing new facilities would also incur substantial expenses, Houser concurs.
“This would cost around $300 or $350 per night,” he explains.
And if deportations were escalated to the level Trump has proposed, detention space would not be the only thing in need of expansion, Sandweg suggests. The ICE staff would also require a significant expansion in numbers.
“You are talking about a five or six-fold increase in the size of ICE operations. ... hiring thousands of new officers, constructing tens of thousands of new detention beds,” he says.
Congress would need to sanction additional billions in expenditures, a task Sandweg describes as "tremendously challenging." Even if this happens, the complexities and time required to recruit personnel and construct facilities could span an entire presidential term.
1,016 days
This is the average duration for a case to traverse immigration court, as reported by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University. However, the timeframe can significantly vary based on the court location and other factors. During the Biden administration, the already substantial backlog in immigration court cases has escalated substantially, surpassing 3.7 million cases today, a significant increase from nearly 1.3 million cases in January 2021.
The congested immigration courts would likely slow down any attempts to expel more individuals.
“Legal procedures must be followed before anyone can be removed,” Collins emphasizes. “They have the right to present a defense. ... Being a non-citizen does not take away one’s legal rights in this country.”
The prolonged await for immigration court proceedings can result in years elapsing before a case is completed after an individual's arrest by ICE.
“The Constitution ensures that due process is granted, which means these individuals have the chance to argue their case before an immigration court,” Sandweg states.
13
As of 2020, the Department of Homeland Security had labeled 13 nations as "uncooperative." These nations generally refuse to accept deportation flights or aid in providing travel documents for their citizens when the U.S. seeks their removal. The aforementioned term was used to describe China, Cuba, India, and Russia, in accordance with Migration Policy Institute findings.
The list can change as a result of geopolitical tensions and diplomatic pressure. The Trump administration employed visa sanctions to compel uncooperative nations to comply, while the Biden administration negotiated with Mexican authorities to relocate some deportees to uncooperative countries.
However, deportation agreements may be fragile. For instance, Venezuela had reached an agreement to accept deportees, but the agreement disintegrated earlier this year, according to MPI.
A potential new Trump administration would have to address this issue in order to implement a major deportation initiative, Houser asserts, particularly considering the prevalence of migrants from those nations in recent years.
“If they’re from Cuba, they won’t return home. If they’re from Venezuela, they won’t return home,” Houser says.
Officials may negotiate third-party nations to accept deportees, Houser suggested. Yet, in the short term, a second Trump administration may focus on expediting removals of nations with more straightforward procedures, as Houser predicts. If larger numbers remain a priority, Houser suggests a focus on expediting the apprehension of individuals with simpler removals, rather than focusing on detaining criminals, due to the increased demand for resources and labor.
“They’ll focus on individuals that are easy to expel due to the resulting numbers and impact,” he says.
4.4 million
Approximately 4.4 million US citizens under 18 have at least one undocumented parent, according to estimates from Pew Research Center.
Immigrant rights advocates point out the potential consequences of any significant deportation operation, highlighting that these children often attend schools and are part of their communities outside their households. The negative impact of deportations on families and communities would be devastating, advocates argue, even if the higher numerical targets promised by officials are not met.
During the Trump administration, smaller-scale examples illustrated the consequences, such as when ICE arrested nearly 700 people in raids at seven Mississippi chicken plants in 2019, prompting a local gym to open its doors to kids who returned from school to find their parents missing.
Following a meatpacking plant raid in rural Tennessee in 2018, approximately 500 kids missed school the following day.
“Following the explosion, children rode the bus home to empty homes, concerned families searched desperately for information about their detained loved ones, and the effects were felt for years thereafter,” Lisa Sherman Luna, executive director of the Tennessee Immigrant and Refugee Rights Coalition, explains.
8.3 million
8.3 million undocumented immigrants hold positions in the US labor force, according to the Pew Research Center. Their representation in the workforce is particularly high in industries such as construction, agriculture, and service.
Economists caution that a major deportation initiative would result in substantial ramifications beyond any specific workplace.
“The economy as a whole will shrink to the detriment of everyone,” says Michael Ettlinger, a senior fellow from the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire.
“Removing individuals that we know are working would be detrimental to our economy,” Collins agrees, noting that the economic impact of immigrant workers extends beyond their income.
“Anyone currently working in this country not only earns but also spends, eating at restaurants, buying groceries, and contributing to the economy through various means,” Collins states.
$96.7 billion
Approximately $96.7 billion in taxes are paid by undocumented immigrants annually, according to the nonpartisan Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy.
As per Zeke Hernandez from the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, these estimates suggest that undocumented immigrants contribute substantially to society, a factor that governments might miss out on if they decide to deport them. However, Hernandez, the writer of "The Truth About Immigration: Why Successful Societies Embrace Newcomers", asserts that discussing only the taxes paid by these immigrants offers a limited perspective.
He explains, "The other tax that governments often overlook is the tax businesses would have paid had they been able to expand and prosper. When a business can't recruit and ends up reducing operations or not growing at all, it results in lower profits, less income, and consequently, less corporate tax payment."
Those opposed to illegal immigration argue that the financial burden on American citizens surpasses any taxes paid by undocumented immigrants. The Federation for American Immigration Reform, an organization advocating for stricter immigration policies, estimates that Americans spend over $150 billion annually due to illegal immigration.
Furthermore, the organization suggests that mass deportation would lead to more employment opportunities for Americans.
However, Hernandez argues against this notion based on historical data.
A research study, in light of deportations that took place under the Obama-era "Secure Communities" program, suggests that 88,000 US-born workers would lose their jobs for every 1 million unauthorized immigrants deported.
So why might deportations negatively impact US-born workers?
Hernandez explains that companies tend to invest less in expanding or launching new businesses and instead focus on technologies that replace lower-skilled workers.
This study offers a compelling example, he states, of how widespread deportation efforts have far-reaching repercussions beyond immigrant communities. Hernandez predicts that the economic consequences of mass deportation would amount to "an absolute catastrophe."
"We, as Americans, the nation, our communities, would endure significant damage," he concludes.
Despite the emphasis on immigration enforcement throughout his tenure, Trump was unable to significantly increase deportations due to the high costs and complex logistics involved. (Follows from)
The expense of apprehending, housing, processing, and removing a single undocumented immigrant was reportedly as high as $10,900 in 2016. (Contains the word: 'politics')
