Trump's behavior continues to escalate, yet the White House presidential contest remains unpredictable.
Former president's chaotic drivel over the past few weeks has stirred recollections of his turbulent four years in the White House and questioned the notion that he's running a more controlled campaign compared to 2020 and 2016. Regardless, the status quo of the race - a 50-50 battle in swing states - remains unchanged.
Trump has propelled false accusations about immigrants in Ohio munching on pets. He's warned that Jewish voters would be held accountable if he loses in November. He's declined to openly denounce his North Carolina gubernatorial contest protégé, who labeled himself a "black Nazi" on an adult website, as CNN's KFile revealed recently. Trump also suggested that Vice President Kamala Harris and Democrats were instigating threats against their own lives by emphasizing his 2020 election loss denial and portraying him as a menace to democracy.
Remarkably, the ex-president finds himself locked in a race described by CNN senior political data reporter Harry Enten as the "closest presidential election" since Democrat John F. Kennedy squeezed past Vice President Richard Nixon.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a key figure in Harris' hopes for victory in the critical Democratic state of Michigan, acknowledged the tightness of the race on CNN's "State of the Union." Whitmer said, "It's going to be close. We have always known that." Adding, "In a state like Michigan or Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, we know that this is going to be a close race."
The close nature of the contest was underscored by the candidates' comments and tactics over the weekend's heated campaign exchanges.
Harris suggested that Trump was angling for excuses to dodge the debate after accepting CNN's invitation for October 23. On the other hand, Trump attempted to erase the wide gender gap threatening his election by bombarding Truth Social with an all-caps post promising to protect women like never before.
On a rare introspective note, Trump told Sharyl Attkisson during an interview on "Full Measure" that he has no intention of running again in 2028 if he loses in November. "I think ... that will be it. I don't see that at all."
No definitive frontrunner
Despite the mounting campaign trail tension, the race remains stagnant, where it has been for weeks - stalemated.
Since her debate with Trump, national polls have marginally improved for Harris. However, there's no clear victor, with Harris at 50% and Trump at 47% in the latest CNN Poll of Polls average. Five surveys conducted after the September 10 debate contribute to this average. A poll released on Sunday by NBC News shows Harris with a margin of 49% to Trump's 44%, setting his lowest poll support level in a survey meeting CNN's criteria since Harris assumed the Democratic nominee role from President Joe Biden in July.
While Harris' upward trajectory offers hope for her supporters, the presidency largely depends on Electoral College results. Consequently, polling averages in crucial swing states, such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina, show the contest teetering on the brink. A handful of voters in these states could tip the scales towards Trump or Harris, with significant implications for the nation and the world.
So, why does the race remain so unpredictably tight?
Considering his controversial exit from the presidency, marked by inciting a riot by his supporters at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, and his refusal to acknowledge defeat, Trump's comeback attempt is nothing short of astonishing. His repeated impeachments and pending serious criminal charges stand in stark contrast to any politician's survival odds.
Originally, the Biden campaign's strategy hinged on the belief that once voters witnessed the unfiltered bombast of Trump, they would recall his turbulent term and vote against him. However, Biden's poor performance at the CNN debate in June, which exposed his age, destroyed the contrast. Harris, who changed the game when she replaced Biden, has attempted to highlight her pragmatism versus Trump's extremism, portraying him as an "unserious man" and a "serious threat." Despite her efforts, the best Harris can spin with only six weeks remaining is that her entry into the race has transformed a race Democrats looked certain to lose into a competitive, nail-biting contest.
Trump's exceptional resilience as a politician - can he seize victory?
Any analysis of the future must first acknowledge the extraordinary resilience of Trump as a political figure. He has indelibly transformed the Republican Party, securing a solid grip on the GOP base as the party's nominee for a third consecutive election.
Despite the animosity of his first term, polls reveal that many voters perceived their financial security to be stronger under Trump until the Covid-19 pandemic struck.
Despite potential sympathies, Trump might not clinch victory due to his consistency in failing to garner majority support from Americans. His 47% approval rating in the CNN Poll of Polls highlights this recurring issue throughout his presidential political journey.
The question arises if an alternative Republican candidate could outperform Trump in a direct competition with Harris. This hypothetical figure should not repel key swing-state moderates, suburban voters, and disillusioned Republicans while contesting in primaries. Regrettably, such a candidate was not backed during the recent primary races, and notable contenders like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley failed to gain mainstream support.
Harris, in contrast, serves as a last-minute substitute for a contender Broadway audiences deemed unfit for a second term. A herculean challenge awaits the vice president – shielding their party from probable November defeat while acting as a potential salvation for democracy itself. While marketing herself as a fresh, transformative leader, Harris remains tethered to an unpopular administration facing a harsh political environment.
The NBC poll offers some insight into this peculiar dynamic. The largest concern among voters pertains to inflation (28%) and the cost of living – an increase from April when the issue stood at 23%. Threats to democracy and eroding democratic freedoms is the second major issue, at 19%. Despite favoring the Democratic party, this topic could also represent growing support for Trump's allegations of a manipulated justice system that poses threats to democracies. The third most pressing issue concerns immigration and border protection (-14%), an area where polls consistently show vulnerabilities for Harris. Abortion, one of her primary concerns, garnered support from just 6% of voters.
The potential election-changer
Voters' concerns over the economy indicate the potential for either candidate to gain an advantage before the election. Trump has showcased various economic proposals, including scrapping tip taxes and modifying his administration's state and local tax policy.
Harris, conversely, aims to make life more affordable by tackling housing, child care, and health care issues. She aims to convince voters of her empathetic understanding of escalating grocery prices, which have remained high despite the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates recently.
This week, Harris will attempt to counter allegations that she lacks clarity in her plans as undecided swing-state voters mull over trusting her to improve their livelihoods. "I'm going to deliver a speech this week," she said, "to elucidate my vision for the economy, which I've dubbed an 'opportunity economy.' This scheme essentially entails investing in the aspirations, ambitions, and dreams of the American people while tackling the obstacles they face – be it high grocery prices or home ownership challenges."
Harris' approach underscores an election defined by voter frustrations, favoring the Republican candidate, whilst maintaining a close race due to Trump's knack for alienating potential voters, regardless of his loyal following.
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, a devoted Trump backer, summarized the race's current state during a conversation with NBC's Kristen Welker on "Meet the Press." He stated: "Sixty-five percent of the people in your poll believe the country is on the wrong track. Who can best address the crime problem? Trump receives a 6% advantage. Who's best for the economy? Trump by 9%. Inflation? Trump by 8%. Border protection? Trump enjoys a 21% advantage."
"What does this poll tell me? On the critical matters that concern American voters, Trump triumphs resoundingly. However, in a head-to-head, he falters."
Despite the controversy surrounding his campaign, former president Trump's approval ratings remain high in certain areas, such as his handling of the economy before the Covid-19 pandemic, as indicated by polls. However, his consistency in failing to garner majority support from Americans, with a 47% approval rating in the CNN Poll of Polls, could potentially hinder his chances of securing victory.
The race between Trump and Vice President Harris remains tight, with no definitive frontrunner in sight. A survey conducted by NBC News shows Harris with a margin of 49% to Trump's 44%, marking his lowest poll support level since Harris assumed the Democratic nominee role from President Joe Biden. Polling averages in crucial swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina indicate that the contest is teetering on the brink, with a handful of voters in these states able to tip the scales towards either candidate.
