Trump will not assume the role of reconciler
**"I am rather certain that the outcome of the US Presidency election is not yet decided", says Politic Scientist Thomas Jäger about the US Presidency election. But the situation has become even more challenging for US President Biden - all the more so if Trump were to give in. He cannot sustain this tactical role, however."
Sebastian Huld: Professor Jäger, where in the long series of iconic moments of US Presidents is the image of the attack on Donald Trump to be classified?
Prof. Thomas Jäger: It's still hard to say that for certain. Trump and his supporters are trying to present it as a picture of the fighter. Trump, who throws himself in front of the American society, who takes the bullets for them and doesn't give up. The opposite interpretation says: Here you see the result and the continuation of the loading of the American society with political violence. The final judgment on this event will not fall now and also not in the next few weeks and months.
Trump is first and foremost the target. Do you see room for a debate about Trump as a perpetrator, who contributes to the political mood in the USA?
Yes, because Donald Trump is a significant actor behind the increase in political violence in American society. He is responsible for the Capitol storming. He is responsible for the coarsening of language. He is responsible for the fact that people are labeled "pests" and regarded as such when he speaks of an "invasion" that poisoned the blood of the American people. He has contributed to the fact that people are so angry.
The general mood can be identified by his person?
Americans have been expressing fears of political violence in surveys for some time. That's now two thirds of the respondents. In addition, 20% of Americans consider the use of violence to be a legitimate means of political dispute. This has to do with the fact that Trump introduced a different tone, a different style into the political debate. It also has to do with the fact that he pursued the project of an imperial presidency. So the historian and presidential advisor Arthur Schlesinger described developments in which all power is concentrated on the US President. Whether these facts have anything to do with the motive of the assassin, we don't know.
If I give the other side room for violence, I have to arm myself, if not even strike first. Will fear of political violence become a self-fulfilling prophecy?
At least one prepares oneself for that, yes. That was observable during the "Black Lives Matter" demonstrations in Trump's first presidency. In response, a militia of the Proud Boys formed on the right side. The protests fueled each other and Trump's response was the deployment of the National Guard. He reacted to violence with even more violence. And he plays with the deployment, when he rants about a election outcome whose outcome he doesn't know. This strategy fans the flames again among Trump's opponents.
Trump could have easily pressed the pause button after the attack, instead he wants to attend the Republican nomination party in Milwaukee. A sign that he wants to use the momentum for himself?
Yes, naturally. He has realized in the first second what he is doing. Otherwise, these images of the attack would not have been taken. The Republicans now face the question of which strategy they want to pursue. Do they continue with their portrayal that President Joe Biden's government is trying to prevent Trump at all costs? In this regard, they have already reinterpreted the impeachment proceedings and the many court cases against Trump. Some Republicans have already linked the attack to this context.
Or...?
Or do the Republicans now tone down and make it harder for Biden to attack Trump head-on? After the attack, Biden had to align himself with Trump. His plan was to make the differences clearer in the coming weeks. The milder the Republicans behave now, the harder it will be for Biden to go back on the offensive. If I observe correctly, the Republicans are turning to a religious language. Their motto: "God protected Trump so that he could protect America." Such things resonate with Trump's supporters.
How should Biden counteract?
He must wait and see what Trump does next. The initiative for action lies with the challenger after the attack. Biden's strategy was to focus on Trump's "Project 2025." This plan involves dismantling democratic institutions. Trump wants to expand the powers of the US President, allow regulation in federal agencies, and hollow out the budget power of Congress. The Democrats view this as preparation for a dictatorship. Speaking out against this, the Republicans will now reject as an incitement to violence.
Will Trump now take on the role of the peacemaker? Can he do that?
No, Trump will not take on the role of the peacemaker. If he does, it will be purely tactical. Then he wants to extract the maximum benefit from the attack for the campaign. But for Trump to permanently take on the role of the peacemaker is completely out of the question. He is the one who labels the left as communists, fascists, un-American, and so on. He wants to deport a large part of the American population. He wants to imprison eleven million people. Trump thrives on dividing America into a false America and a real America, which he claims to represent.
The attack at least takes the debate about Biden's age and health off the table. A chance for the incumbent?
The age debate was somewhat overestimated in Germany. After the TV debate, the polls had only slightly improved for Trump. This could have been regained. After the attack, Trump's values may continue to rise, but the question is: how much and for how long? The polls currently show a stable lead for Trump of one to three percentage points. However, in the American electoral system, only the shifts in the states are relevant where the outcome is still open. At the end, it's about orders of magnitude of tens of thousands, sometimes even hundreds of thousands of voters in a handful of states that decide the outcome. Predicting how they will decide in November is not possible.
So you don't agree, then, with those who see the race for the presidency after the attack as having been run?
I'm quite certain that the outcome is not decided yet. This event is being overshadowed. The Republicans have faced headwind before their nominating convention anyway, as an unknown candidate for the Vice-Presidency will be presented at Milwaukee. This momentum wanes towards August, and then the Democrats have their convention. A lot can still happen until November, but it's clear that with the attack, Joe Biden's already challenging campaign for the presidency has not become easier.
Interview with Thomas Jaeger conducted by Sebastian Huld
In the context of the U.S. Presidential Election 2024, former President Donald Trump's attempts to regain power could pose a significant challenge for President Joe Biden, further complicating the political landscape. If Trump continues his rhetoric and actions, there might be a renewed increase in political violence in the United States, as he has been identified as a contributing factor to the current heightened tension.
